Good morning!
Both the corn and soybean markets are lower this
morning. There isn’t much coming off the news wire to explain the
downward move. Some traders are starting to feel like the weather risk
in South America may have been overblown. One way
to look at it would be that if it is too wet in Brazil (North) and too
dry in Argentina (South) that somewhere in the middle weather must be
ideal, right? Either way, the forecast looks neutral to slightly
bearish: close to unchanged from yesterday as Argentina
will still be dry this week with a few more rains than we thought
coming next week.
The Congressional Budget Office came out with
estimates for the 2013 crops – showing a 14.45 bb corn crop with a
carryout of 1.852 bb and a 3.3 bb soybean crop with a carryout of 281
mb. It is essential to note that these numbers are budgetary
numbers and that’s it – meaning no research has been done, they are
just plugging numbers into a budget. If these numbers rang true, the
carryout numbers would be bearish but we really shouldn’t put any stock
into them even though it feels like there are
traders in Chicago is doing that today. The USDA releases their
prospective acreage numbers on March 28th, THAT is the report to watch.
Currently
Corn is down 6 to 7 cents
Soybeans are down 13 to 15 cents
Dustin Weiner
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