As expected the weekly USDA Crop Progress Report reduced good/excellent ratings in both corn and soybeans caused by excessive heat and lack of rain. National corn crop ratings are 40% g/e down 8% from last week. Soybeans nationally rated 40% g/e down 5%. Iowa corn conditions over the past week dropped 16% to a rating of 46%. The Iowa Soybean crop dropped 11% from last week to a rating of 48% g/e. North Carolina took the brunt of crop decline boasting a drop in corn ratings of 18% and a soybean reduction of 19%. Trade estimates were projecting a 5-7% decline in both corn and beans. These numbers are friendly corn and neutral beans.

Our markets are sharply higher again this morning after another hot weekend with disappointing rainfall.  The temps did cool down (back to normal) for this week, but unfortunately for crop sizes – no rain is in sight.  The outside markets are negative this morning, but that doesn’t really matter – we are still tied to weather and it is bullish to prices. 

Crop ratings will be out this afternoon after the markets close, the trade is expecting a 5-7% drop in G:E ratings across the board.  The USDA releases its monthly S&D on Wednesday.  Yields will fall, but probably not by as much as traders feel they should – this report will be as of July 1^st and weather has continued to wreak havoc since then.

Currently

Corn is up 30-35 cents

Soybeans are up 40-45 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

Good morning!

The markets appear to be taking a deep breath this morning (much-needed).  Most of this is due to good old fashioned pre-weekend profit taking. 

This rally we have seen has been one everyone should remember for a while.  Looking at yesterday’s close vs. the close just two weeks earlier… dec corn gained a whopping $1.58/bushel!  Nov beans over the same 2-week, 9-trading day window gained $1.55/bushel.  Talk about a game changer for producers’ bottom lines (at least those that plan to have a crop).

As hot and as dry as it has been – it is hard to imagine the US corn crop getting any worse in traders’ minds then it is has been this week (triple digit temps, no relief in sight).  Current general weather this morning shows cooler temps this weekend as a cold front moves across the Midwest.  Late next week there is a chance for hotter temps to show up once again, but it could also bring with it showers for the Southern Plains/Delta/Southeastern Belt.  This is helping the market work lower.

The USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning.  Corn sales came in well below guesses – actually coming in at a marketing year LOW.  That is not friendly to corn prices.  Bean sales on the other hand were somewhat impressive – especially in new crop.  That is a touch bullish to beans but likely won’t matter today.

The goal of the market is to slow down demand, especially corn demand.  If you pay close attention it may already be happening.  You can see it in decreasing corn exports, poor ethanol margins, and a basis that is backing off every other day.  A big rumor that was floating around the trade late yesterday was that the EPA is thinking about reducing the ethanol mandate for next year by 20%.  Really the whole idea is pure speculation – but these are the types of things that can turn a bull market around. 

Currently

Corn is 16 to 19 cents lower

Soybeans are 15 to 17 cents lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

Good morning!

The markets have been closed since Tuesday at noon and don’t open today till 9:30am.  Currently calls appear to be higher on both corn and soybeans, led once again by weather.  With the hot/dry weather we saw over the holiday and the limited rainfall showing in the forecasts – crop sizes are still under pressure.  There wasn’t a USDA weekly export sales report this morning – that is delayed till tomorrow due to the holiday. The only other piece of news to discuss involves the outside markets.  Both China and the EU cut their interest rates. This has rallied the dollar which could take some of the bullishness away from commodities today…

Opening Calls

Corn 5 to 10c higher

Soybeans 10 to 20 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary.cfm

July 3rd, 2012 Mid Session Comments

Markets are lead higher on bullish news from yesterday’s crop condition ratings. Weather projections show hot and dry conditions to remain over the next 5 days. Outside markets are mixed with crude up, US$ up, and gold up. Markets will close at noon today and reopen at 9:30 on Thursday. Have a safe and happy 4^th of July. http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary.cfm

https://www.facebook.com/#!/fccoop

July 2nd, 2012 Afternoon Market Comments

Weekly USDA crop condition report came out with the national corn rating 48% good/excellent, down 8% from last week. Trade estimates were looking for a decrease around 4-5%. Iowa came in at 62% g/e down 6% from last week. Missouri was the surprise of the release coming in at 18% g/e down 16% from last week leading the nation in the lowest rating followed closely by Indiana at 19%. Similar to corn soybeans came in down 8% with g/e rating of 45% nationally. Iowa beans are 59% g/e down 4% from last week. It’s been a tough growing season in Missouri as they lead the nation in the worst ratings not only in corn but beans as well with a rating of 18% g/e.  Needless to say lack of rain is really starting to be felt across the eastern corn belt. Poor condition ratings and minimal rain in the 5 day weather forecast has opening calls higher across the board.

July 2nd, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

This is still a weather market and the weather still appears to be friendly.  We are off our highs this morning, but are still showing double digit gains in both corn and soybeans.  There were a few scattered showers over the weekend.  Nice to see – but they were scattered at best, not a big help to the crops there, the East is still in desperate need of a soaker (along with cooler temps).

The outside markets are currently mixed to a maybe a touch bearish to our grains.  All eyes will be on weather forecasts today and assuming there are no major changes we should trade higher all day.

Currently

Corn is 20 to 24 cents higher

Soybeans are 20 to 22 cents higher

Have a great day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary.cfm

3-day Rainfall Totals, concentrating on the East: