FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/3/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/3/2014

Monday, November 3, 2014, 8:11 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Pullback pressure this morning has corn and soybean futures lower at the 7:45 break after positive performances for both commodities on Friday. Soybeans are down 10 cents and corn is 4 cents lower. Harvest progress and good weather is adding some pressure too as we look at a favorable national forecast for this coming week. Expectations for tonight’s harvest progress report show us gaining some ground compared to our average pace. Corn is expected to be 61% to 65% complete (73% on average). Soybeans are expected to show us catching up to our average pace of 84%. We’ve got a chance for rain across Iowa today and another small chance on Wednesday. The 10-day has rain in the forecast for next Monday as well, but the feel is most of corn harvest should be wrapping up by then.

 

Soybean meal basis (the reason for our recent run in soybeans) still hasn’t broken lower. We have a lot of soybeans around, but the number of bushels that are available due to logistical hang-ups are much fewer. Once those issues get resolved, we can expect the recent premium placed on the market to disappear.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2319

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/22/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/22/14

Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The soybean market popped higher again last night on the general slow start to harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt which is rallying spreads and basis for both soybean meal and soybeans as the soybean pipeline isn’t quite full yet.  The funds also appeared to be active last night with another round of aggressive buying on what looked to be high volume (overnight volume in both Dec corn and Nov beans is estimated to be around 30,000 contracts).  Farming selling of soybeans has been strong in both the US and Brazil/Argentina as most farmers are able to sift through the static and realize that these rallies are great selling opportunities in what still looks to be a great U.S. crop and overall increasing world stocks of grains/oilseeds.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2307

 

FC Morning Market Commentary

The corn and soybean markets were mixed at the 7:45 break this morning with corn and old crop beans lower, and new crop beans higher. The weekly export sales report showed corn exports on the high end of estimates; soybeans were net positive, but within expectations. Both are supportive to corn and beans, but with weather continuing to stay favorable, we will likely see a mixed trade into next week. The 3-day forecast shows Iowa receiving additional rainfall. On June 11^th the USDA will release the monthly Supply & Demand estimate – few changes from last month are expected.

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to 2 cents lower

Beans mixed: Nearby 6 cents lower, November a penny higher

Have a great day!

Joel Pudenz

Farmers Cooperative Company

FC Morning Market Commentary

Corn and bean futures are all weaker this morning after yesterday afternoon’s crop conditions report confirmed to us that this corn crop is indeed off to a great start.   You combine that with a forecast that looks non-threatening and it’s no surprise that prices are struggling to hold in here.  I stuck a couple of maps down at the bottom of these comments that show both the 1-month and 3-month temperature outlooks for the U.S..  The big thing there is the lack of high heat…  These types of predictions will be watched closely as eyes start to turn towards the pollination window. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 6 to 8 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary 051214

The markets were quiet last night while weather across the Western Corn Belt was not – heavy storms rolled through overnight, and it is still raining in Iowa as I type this up this morning.  After these storms push East, the forecasts look generally dry for the next 7 days, which will be help get producers back in the fields.

There really wasn’t a whole lot of news out over the weekend -- other than stories out of Ukraine (yes, it is still tense over there).  The markets don’t seem too concerned about that today, as global equities are higher – but at some point the EU and the US could come up with some new, additional economic sanctions.  As far as the grain trade is concerned, to-date there have still been no disruptions in regards to corn/wheat trade flows out of that area.

Overall for today look for prices to generally drift lower – weather is still the #1 input into the markets and even though there were some heavy (too-heavy?) rains that hit parts of IA overnight – moisture is viewed as good for crops and bad for prices (today)...  Rain makes grain!

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans steady to down 2 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

The soybean market is lower this morning and looks like it could be in trouble technically (read: on the charts) after taking out last week’s lows during the overnight session.  This technical selling in soybean seems to be leading most of the markets lower. 

Corn is a few cents lower overnight, some of that due to the weakness in beans.  But also, with another 48 hours of warm, dry weather on the docket – the US farmer will be getting a big chunk of planting done between now and the (potentially heavy) thunderstorms coming later in the week.  Unfortunately, that rain is not timed well for everybody (it never is) -- planting delays in Minnesota (and northern Iowa) look to continue.  The 6-10 day precip map shown below looks like it could provide another window for field work to be done.  This slot (next week) will be the next window of time the market will focus on. 

Opening calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents lower

Soybeans 10 to 15 cents lower

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Report

The markets last night were a little higher – this looks like a nice little correction after yesterday’s severe drop.  If you looked at weather models this morning, even though the next 5 days look warm and dry - I suppose you could say overall the forecasts are a touch wetter than they were yesterday which would be friendly to prices. The next rain event looks to have just moved up a day or so (coming next Wednesday instead of next Thursday??).  Also in supportive news, Ukraine unrest seems to be on the front page again today, causing traders to put a little risk premium back in the market.  All of this together has helped the market stay positive so far today.

 

The soybean chart had some major damage done yesterday with the +50c drop in July futures prices.  If the market can hold here at these levels, and maybe recover some of those losses - that would be a good sign.  If not, there could be another leg down in this thing. 

 

Overall for today we expect the markets to be choppy with a decent chance we close higherahead of the weekend.  A lot can change in a weather forecast over 48 hours – for better or worse – and nobody wants to have too much risk on the table.  This market could get squirrelly just before the 1:15 close. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

 

Have a great day!

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary

Good morning!

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was pretty much as expected.  Corn sales were decent – right in the middle of the range of guesses.  Soybeans sales were near zero (but still a touch positive) which is actually right in the middle of the range of guesses.  New crop soybean sales were a little disappointing, which could cause new crop prices to lose a little ground to old crop today. Old crop soybean meal sales were big, which will offer support to beans.  Overall – not much to see here. 

Generally speaking corn and wheat are both trading weather, and they both view the weather forecasts as friendly.  Wheat is rallying thanks to dry weather in the plains while corn is rallying thanks to wet weather in the corn belt.  Long term, this moisture we have been getting will likely be viewed as bearish to corn prices (we need the rain) – but not until we know the crop is in the ground.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner 

@fccoopgrain

FC Market Commentary 21 Apr 14

The markets started Easter Sunday higher last night – mainly in soybeans – but gave way to selling pressure and this morning we now see corn, beans and wheat all in the red.  The talk overnight was that risk premium was being taken out of the markets as the situation in Ukraine seems to have improved.  Leaders from the U.S., EU, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement last week, at least making an attempt at a peaceful resolution.  This is allowing the grain markets to relax a bit. 

This afternoon, after our markets close, we will get the weekly planting progress report.  The market is expecting corn planting to be somewhere around 10% complete.  This is close to our average and will confirm the market sentiment that planting, so far, is “normal”.  Between good prospects for the 14/15 crop and Ukraine improving – corn has struggled to stay positive lately.  Last night May corn traded to the lowest level since the March stocks report…

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 25 @ 103.12) along with a higher US Dollar (138.06 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 8).

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Comments

Good morning!

The markets ended up mixed overnight, with soybeans trading higher for most of the session only to fall back towards steady at the 7:45am pause while corn followed a similar – but less volatile arch. Soybeans once again made new contract highs last night, it will be interesting to see if they try to test those again during the day session today. 

The weekly export sales this report came out this morning and sales made last week were about as expected for both corn and beans.  There were once again extremely small but still net positive old crop export soybean sales made last week.  AKA – no cancellations.  This should support old crop beans once again.

The 6-10 day forecasts (at the bottom of this email) show above normal temps and precip for next week for most of the Midwest.  Sounds like rain this weekend followed by warmer temps – which isn’t all bad.  This forecast is viewed by the trade as favorable for planting this spring (read: a little bearish to prices).  You will also see in the new drought monitor released this morning that parts of Iowa are seeing improvement – and with rain coming this weekend hopefully that will continue.

*** REMEMBER – NO MARKETS TOMORROW ***.  The CBOT is closed for the Good Friday / Easter holiday.  They will resume again Monday morning. 

Have a great day and weekend!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Comments

Good morning!

The soybean markets continues to impress with another rally overnight – making new contract highs (old crop).  The big bullish story yesterday (which appeared to carry-through into the night session) was the NOPA crush report which showed a surprisingly large amount of beans crushed last month.  12 million bushels more than we crushed in Feb and 16mb more than we crushedlast March.  The market is trying to ration demand and this report shows demand may actually be increasing – hence the higher prices.

The issues in Russia/Ukraine have not gone away, in fact they may be escalating.  Of course no one really knows what will come of this but tomorrow officials from U.S./EU/Russia/Ukraine are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland to discuss possible resolutions. 

The weather for the US corn belt is showing a rise in temperatures with normal to above normal precip in the 6-10 day forecasts (maps below).  This should help get corn planting rocking and rolling in many areas.  Some private analysts are predicting (based on the weather forecasts) that the US will be 40% done with corn planting by the end of April which would be a great start!

Corn prices seem to be stuck – soybean and wheat prices have been firm, corn demand has been strong, Ukraine is still having issues – all of this should be friendly to corn prices.  However, improved planting weather and the ability of the US farmer to plant corn faster than he ever has before has the market cautious about getting caught long. 

The outside markets are higher this morning with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 103 @ 104.78) along with a higher US Dollar (138.37 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 72).

Opening calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans 8 to 15 cents higher (led by old crop)

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

---

FC Morning Market Comments 04.14.14

Good morning!

The markets rebounded overnight, bouncing up from Friday’s lower close.  The wheat market seems to be leading the charge higher (up double digits) likely due to ongoing weather concerns in US wheat country along with escalating tensions in Russia/Ukraine.  Winter wheat crop conditions were already poor (at a 12-yr low) thanks to the drought in the Southern Plains – and now with freezing temps in the forecast for tomorrow morning it looks like they could get worse.

Although some of us here in Iowa will feel that the rains over the weekend were beneficial – the market is trading this cool wet weather as something that is friendly to prices as corn planting will have to wait a little while longer.  Speaking of planting, the USDA’s first planting progress report will be out this afternoon and the market is expecting the US to be just under 5% planted on corn.  This number would be pretty close to normal, and it’s probably too early to get worked up over planting delays…

Opening Calls
Corn 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans steady to 5c higher

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

Should you plant corn today?

Farmer Cooperative Company's Todd Claussen explains some issues to be aware of if planting corn today (April 11, 2014) in Iowa.

FC Market Commentary for April 8, 2014

Good morning!

The overnight electronic trading session was a quiet one last night with both corn and beans hovering close to their closes yesterday.  Yesterday afternoon was the first weekly planting progress report (of course, only for states like Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, etc. etc. are reporting this early).  The weekly crop conditions report was delayed a day and will be out this afternoon.

Tomorrow of course is the April S&D, as I mentioned yesterday the trade seems to agree that the carryouts (aka projected ending stocks) in both corn and soybeans will shrink a bit when compared to the March report – but there are still questions as to how we will get to those numbers, especially in soybeans.    Exports.  Imports.  Domestic crush.  Residual usage.  All of those categories will likely be tweaked just enough to spit out a carryout somewhere between 135mb and 145mb.  The current average trade guess on soybean carryout is 139mb (it was 145mb last month).  The current average trade guess on corn carryout is 1.403bb (it was 1.456bb last month).

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 86 @ 101.30) along with a lower US Dollar (137.92 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is slightly lower (DN 7).

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 cents

Soybeans mixed, down 1c to up 1c

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/31/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/31/14

Monday, March 31, 2014, 3:31 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

This morning’s report was cause of volatility in the market today with corn trading a 28 cent range and beans a 43 cent range. Nearby corn closed a dime higher as quarterly stocks were 7.006 bln bu – near trade expectations, but still a friendly number as some expected lower feed usage. Export inspections were strong at 52.2 mln this morning. Planting Intentions were 1 mln acres less than trade expectations, helping December corn close 11 cents higher and was also supportive old crop prices. Iowa showed an increase of 400k acres.

Nearby soybeans closed 27 cents higher as the quarterly stocks number of 992 mln bu. reinforced the fact of a tight U.S. soybean carryout (145 mln). Planting Intentions are 81.5 mln acres (a record), nearly 5 mln. acres more than last year. Iowa shows an increase of 300k acres of soybeans. November soybeans closed 3 cents lower on the large acreage number. The market will watch the intentions evolve into decisions and look to weather/spring planting as we stand on the doorstep of spring.

Corn closed up at $5.02

Beans closed up at $14.64

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2064

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/21/2014

AM Comments 02/21/14

Friday, February 21, 2014, 8:15 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets are lower, likely due to the USDA Ag Forum numbers that were released this morning.  I attached the tables to the bottom of this email but long story short they have the carryouts growing next year with corn over 2b bu and beans up to 285m bu.  While this doesn’t mean a whole lot because the S&D picture can/will change between now and then… it is a little bearish today. 

 

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was about as expected with corn sales within the range of guesses (albeit at the lower end).  Soybean sales were very small but they were still net positive.  This fact that it wasn’t net negative goes against the China cancellation stories that the bears in the market have been pushing.  There were also some decent new crop bean sales put on.  So, while the small export number on beans may appear to be negative to prices today – don’t let it fool you.  The USDA has total soybean exports this year written in as 1.510 billion bushels, we have 1.587bb already sold and over 5 months left in the marketing year.  The market will need to see cancellations soon, or else price may have to do the work.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2c

Soybeans down 2c to up 2c

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2026

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/18/2014

AM Comments 02/18/14

Tuesday, February 18, 2014, 8:00 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

After the three-day weekend the markets are higher this morning, corn is maybe a couple cents higher while soybeans are double digits higher.  There wasn’t a whole lot of fresh fundamental (S&D) news to go on last night – the move in soybeans appears to be technical in nature.  There are key resistance levels in March corn at $4.50 and in March beans at $13.50 that will be watched closely.  Both of them are hovering right around those spots, it will be interesting to see how we close the day.

 

The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will be out later this morning, along with the NOPA soybean crush report.  Both of these will give strong indications to the market on how strong this soybean demand truly is and whether or not it is speeding up or slowing down.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 15 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2022

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for January 17, 2014

Good morning!

Soybeans are getting pressured on further confirmation of rains moving into Argentina this weekend.  Also, the cash market witnessed soybean basis back off a bit yesterday which was a small negative input.  Even with beans being almost a dime lower over night, they are still 27c higher on the week which would be the strongest 1-week move since late November.  Strong demand from both domestic crushers and China is what spurred this rally.

Later this morning a well followed private company will release their updated estimate on 2014 acreage intentions – their last estimate had corn at 91.8ma and soybeans at 81.9ma.

Monday is a holiday, so we are staring at a 3-day weekend. With weather forecasts in Argentina hanging over our heads the trade could get choppy as we get closer to the 1:15pm close. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for January 16, 2014

AM Comments 01/16/14

Thursday, January 16, 2014, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30 this morning and old crop soybean exports were at the bottom end of guesses – but the fact that we are still exporting beans when many in the market have been waiting for cancellations has caused the soybean market to pop higher once again.  When you couple these exports with yesterday’s record domestic crush numbers – the bean market should stay strong today - if beans close higher today, that will be the 6^th day in a row.  Corn sales numbers came out above the highest estimate which has also allowed corn to work higher.  Interesting to note on the trade in corn yesterday: the corn market was lower but open interest went up.  Meaning new shorts were piling on the corn market.

 

After the market paused at 7:45am, the USDA made a few more announcements.  First of all, another 465k MT of beans were sold to China (most of them new crop). Second, 126k MT of corn that was previously sold to “unknown destinations” (read: China) were cancelled.  This could take a little luster off the corn market.

 

The export news this morning is about all there is to talk about.  Argentine weather is still something to watch as this hot dry weather is supposed to relax a bit when we hit the weekend.  We did read this morning that Chinese spot soybean crush margins are running near break-even, which will be interesting to watch.

 

Opening calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 7 to 10 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1983

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 1-10-2014

Morning Comments 1/10/2014

Friday, January 10, 2014, 8:35 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Quiet overnight trade ahead of the USDA supply/demand report along with stocks estimates for December 1^st set to be released at 11 am. Commodities have made new contract lows the past couple trading sessions with the expectations today’s report will show a record crop in South America. The current average trade guess have corn production just over 14 billion bushels with ending stocks around 2 billion. There are really 4 things to focus on in today’s report: First, how much will crop size increase? The trade is expecting yield to increase to 161.3 bpa. Second, will the demand number change and to where? Soybean export sales are just under 1.5 bln bushels which is already above the USDA estimate so the obvious answer is soybean demand should increase. Third, what were corn stocks on December 1^st? This number gives a good idea of how corn is being used in feed demand. Current estimate is for stocks to be 10.79 bln bushels for corn and 2.161 bln for bean. And lastly, how much of this bearishness is already priced into the market? Since the last USDA report corn has been stuck in a range from $4.20-4.40 but this week we made new lows and are currently sitting at $4.10.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1975