Good morning!

It is the Friday before a 3-day weekend and we are seeing a little profit taking across our markets this morning.  Russia had their “Food Security Council” meeting last night – their Deputy Prime Minister said they will not limit grain exports and will firmly oppose any thoughts of export restrictions.  This is adding pressure to the markets.

The outside markets this morning are a bit friendly, the Dow, crude oil and gold are higher while the dollar is weaker.  Bernanke’s speech is today which could affect those markets although there isn’t much expected to change with this being an election year.

Other than that, there isn’t much to go on.  Corn harvest is quietly progressing and yield reports are all over the board.  The next USDA S&D report is out Sept 12^th, we will probably have to wait until then to get new fundamental data to trade on. 

**Reminder** -no markets Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.

Currently

Corn is mixed, down a penny to up a penny

Soybeans are down 5 to 8 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

Good morning!

After yesterday’s sharp rally higher in our corn and soybean markets you could almost expect some profit taking today, but that really hasn’t been the case as both corn and beans hover around steady.  Yesterday’s rally could be credited to the wheat market as news of Russia implementing an export ban surfaced (dry growing season).  Now, the Russian Ag Minister is stating that there is no need for an export ban.  This has cooled the wheat market off, but I am not sure how many people actually believe it.    

Weather reports for the corn belt are fairly quiet – parts of MO, IL OH, and IN will get some rain from Isaac (1-3”) through the end of this week.  High winds from this storm do have some traders nervous – we do not need what corn is out there to be blown to the ground.  There are some hot temps across the belt nearby, but temps turn to average quickly and next week cool off even more. 

The USDA released some export sales numbers this morning, corn appears to be a touch light on new crop corn exports while beans appear to be within the range of guesses.  Both corn and soybeans experienced net cancellations of old crop exports (negative numbers) but the old crop marketing year is almost complete so this isn’t big news.  Corn rationing stories continue to surface in nearly all demand sectors.  While some areas continue to forge ahead crushing corn (as of today), the outlook looks bleak.  For example, an economist from Purdue University is projecting hog producers will be losing $60/head by January – this would be an all-time record high.

Financial markets are quiet, Bernanke will give his annual speech at the Jackson Hole economic summit tomorrow, everyone will be listening for the slightest hint of an additional economic stimulus.  Jobless claims were out this morning and came in as expected.

Currently

Corn is up 1 to 2 cents

Soybeans are steady to up 1 cent

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

Good morning!

There is support in our market today, with born corn and soybeans clocking in gains overnight.  Technically Dec corn looks like it is ironing out a short term bottom – today’s action so far could be viewed as a reversal (making new lows for the move, but now trading higher). 

The USDA came out yesterday projecting that U.S. farmers will make a record profit this year. Higher prices plus crop-insurance payments are said to outweigh losses from the drought, taking farm profits up to $122.2 billion this year (3.7% higher than last year).  In particular it is the corn and soybean farmers who are the ones with the record income (guys with a crop have high prices, guys without a crop have insurance).  The livestock farmers on the other hand (dairymen and ranchers) will see income stay flat due to rising feed costs (up 13%). 

Fundamentally in our markets to there just isn’t much to talk about.  There are a couple friendly news stories out on soybeans.  First, the American Soybean Association says that US exports to SE Asia will be up approx. 12% in 12/13.  Also there was an Ag Industry Conference in Thailand recently (yesterday?) where the idea that Asian demand will continue to rise for soybeans (and meal) was tossed around.  If this Asian soy product demand is truly continuing to increase, the bean crop in South America (planting will start next month) will be as important as it has ever been.

Currently

Corn is up 5 to 7 cents

Soybeans are up 7 to 10 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

Good morning!

Tropical storm Isaac is approaching New Orleans, now expected to be a Category 1 hurricane – it should be over land this evening.  The export houses are all shut down in preparation and 40% of the gulf’s oil production has stopped.  Heavy rains will push up into parts of the corn belt from this storm.  This is viewed as a bearish to grains by some traders because of the long term possibility that the dry pattern we have been stuck in is finally changing.

Other than that, there isn’t much to talk about.  Export news is relatively quiet, however the USDA did confirm this morning that China bought 110k tons of soybeans for the 12-13 crop year.  Outside markets are quiet also, it appears the financial world is waiting for Bernanke’s speech later this week. 

Currently

Corn is steady to down 2c

Soybeans are down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

5-day QPF:

Good morning!

Our markets are higher this morning, led by soybeans.  The soybean market is reacting to the change in direction of tropical storm Isaac, due to hit just East of New Orleans on Wednesday likely as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.  This probably means harvest delays for the Delta soybeans which is rallying soybean futures prices.  Isaac will also shut down oil rigs in the gulf, which strengthens crude oil and other energies. 

Nice rains fell across the corn belt over the weekend.  Too late to benefit this year’s crops but it  helps replenish soil moisture for the winter wheat. 

Friday afternoon Pro Farmer estimated US corn yield at 120.25 bpa with a production of 10.478bb (USDA was at 123.4 & 10.779).  They estimated US soybean yield at 34.8 bpa with a production of 2.6bb (USDA was at 36.1 & 2.692).  The next USDA S&D will be released Sept 12^th. 

Currently

Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans are 15 to 18 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm

In recognition of plant health issues, FC has reduced corn drying rates nearly 50% to 2.5c per point to help farmers get in the field and capture every bushel that they can. This rate applies to new crop corn delivered by September 30th.
http://fccoop.com/

Good Morning!

The corn and soybean markets are recovering well this morning after yesterday’s sell-off. You can credit the drop in prices yesterday to technical profit taking which sped up as the day went on and prices broke through support levels.  Prices were also pressured from Pro Farmer rumors/estimates as better than expected corn yield in Illinois and Iowa.  The soybean market felt tippy yesterday as domestic nearby bean basis slipped, triggering long liquidation.

Today feels a little different.  There are whispers in the marketplace that China was an active buyer of US soybeans on the break yesterday which is supporting beans.  This is not a shocker, as they have been consistent buyers on any market setbacks.  Again, the US is the only supplier of soybeans left in the world for China until SA harvests in Feb/March.  Nothing new to report on corn yet this morning, it seems to be a reluctant follower of soybeans so far.

Pro Farmer’s final number will be released this afternoon, around 2pm.

Currently:

Corn is up 3 to 6 cents

Soybeans are up 12 to 18 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm