Soybeans once again are under pressure. It sounds like a broken record but so far this morning they are leading the charge lower on ideas that those August rains were more beneficial than originally thought to yield.
FCStone came out with their projections on crop sizes late yesterday. They had production numbers higher than what the USDA said in September for both corn and soybeans. Finding an additional 97mb of corn and 215mb of soybeans. The corn # could be viewed as surprising but the beans are in line with what we have been hearing for the last 10 days. Either way this is just a private estimate, one of many. The USDA will grace us with their number next Thursday and that will be what we trade on for the next 30 days.
There are a few stories hitting the news wire that could help establish a bottom in the soybean complex. Soybean oil has been getting hit hard lately (thanks to Malaysian palm oil falling apart) but this morning the USDA says that we exported 21k tons of soybean oil to China. There are also rumors that 2-3 cargoes of soybeans were sold to an unknown destination late last night (likely China there too). So. Low prices cure low prices and these low soybean are doing nothing to curb demand, they may actually be stimulating new demand. Time will tell on that.
Soybean planting in South America seems to be going along OK. There are some warmer/drier forecasts that are causing a little concern throughout parts of Brazil, including Mato Grosso. This will be watched intently as the whole market structure on soybeans this year revolcvs around the idea that nearly all the US bean exports will be shipped by Jan/Feb, after that the demand shifts almost entirely to South America. If South America fails or slips, things could get wild here in the US as they try to find additional supply.
Currently
Corn is down 5 to 7 cents
Soybeans are down 7 to 10 cents
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