Good morning!!

Our grain markets are lacking direction once again this morning.  Pro Farmer results are still trickling in, Illinois corn yield came in above the USDA’s estimate and they are finishing up Iowa today – early numbers out of Iowa suggest this crop could be a little better than the USDA had guessed as well.  You mix those numbers in with the poorer than estimated numbers from the Eastern and Western areas and nobody really knows what to think. 

This tour is  not meant to be compared to the USDA numbers, but that of course happens anyways.  It is worth noting that the PF Tour doesn’t cover the entire belt, below is a map showing the areas they cover.  They are colored by days 1-4, with the last day taking place mostly in Iowa (today) colored in red.

The outside markets are a non-factor this morning with the dollar a touch weaker, financial markets mixed and crude oil slightly higher.  The ethanol mandate is still being discussed with a wide range of groups asking for the EPA to suspend it for a year while Governor Branstad is asking them to keep it running.  We still don’t think anything will happen before the election and even after that – it is still unlikely to be changed.  The market will probably have to do the job of rationing demand on its own.

Weekly export sales were out this morning, we see strong exports for both old and new crop beans, while corn came in line with expectations.  Flat price rallies seem to have little effect on soybean exports.  New crop spreads may need to rally to do that job (larger inverses).

Currently

Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans are 1c higher to 2c lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm