MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 07/24/14

Thursday, July 24, 2014, 8:07 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Strong export data from the USDA this morning is lifting prices higher in corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn sales were strong, coming in above expectations at 1.14MMT which is of course friendly. In soybeans, “strong sales” would be an understatement as new crop sales made last week totaled 2.45MMT which equates to just over 90 million bushels.

Crop tours are beginning to kick off across the corn belt – the tour that most will follow (the ProFarmer crop tour) doesn’t start until August 18^th. So far the chatter from these tours has centered around good crops with ridiculous potential.

If the markets can close higher today that would make two days in a row (wow!) – however, the seasonal charts will tell you that corn and soybeans usually don’t find their lows until we get into the middle of harvest, which is still months away... The soybean market may have a chance at a few small weather rallies (as that crop is yet to be made and the demand stories are exciting), but overall the price risk in nov beans appears to be to the downside.

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 20 to 25 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2204

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Good morning!!

Our grain markets are lacking direction once again this morning. Pro Farmer results are still trickling in, Illinois corn yield came in above the USDA’s estimate and they are finishing up Iowa today – early numbers out of Iowa suggest this crop could be a little better than the USDA had guessed as well. You mix those numbers in with the poorer than estimated numbers from the Eastern and Western areas and nobody really knows what to think.

This tour is not meant to be compared to the USDA numbers, but that of course happens anyways. It is worth noting that the PF Tour doesn’t cover the entire belt, below is a map showing the areas they cover. They are colored by days 1-4, with the last day taking place mostly in Iowa (today) colored in red.

The outside markets are a non-factor this morning with the dollar a touch weaker, financial markets mixed and crude oil slightly higher. The ethanol mandate is still being discussed with a wide range of groups asking for the EPA to suspend it for a year while Governor Branstad is asking them to keep it running. We still don’t think anything will happen before the election and even after that – it is still unlikely to be changed. The market will probably have to do the job of rationing demand on its own.

Weekly export sales were out this morning, we see strong exports for both old and new crop beans, while corn came in line with expectations. Flat price rallies seem to have little effect on soybean exports. New crop spreads may need to rally to do that job (larger inverses).

Currently

Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans are 1c higher to 2c lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm