Our markets are higher this morning, led by soybeans. The bears have had their way in the soybean market since midday last Friday but it appears the selling is taking a breather today as beans snap back nicely. Some traders believe technical buying/selling happens in threes – yesterday being the third day of selling. As we get closer to the end of harvest, traders are watching for the seasonal ‘harvest lows’ to be put in as a time to buy. Lately (last 15 years) this has happened during the first week of October.
The outside markets are pretty quiet this morning, energies are a touch lower while the $US and the financial markets are a touch higher.
In regards to U.S. soybean exports; all eyes are still on China. Their crush margins are improving with this break in flat price but they are still believed to be negative. The last couple days the trade has been talking about them dipping into their soybean reserves while waiting to see if South America raises a crop. While that type of move is bearish to the market it is interesting to note that there are rumors this morning that China came in and bought 4 to 5 cargoes of US soybeans…
As for weather while there are a few decent rains in the forecast for late next week, it should be dry up until then and the forecasts look warmer and drier into the first week of October. Pretty close to ideal. The day after harvest ends the trade will be praying for rain/snow (anything wet) as we need to replenish subsoil moisture for next spring.
Currently
Corn is up 5 to 8 cents
Soybeans are up 18 to 22 cents
http://www.fccoop.com/markets/information.cfm
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook for the U.S.
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