Good morning!
The soybean market traded down the limit (70c) yesterday, and today are down another 20-30 cents. Same story today as yesterday: harvest pressure mixed with ideas that there are more acres out there than originally thought. The market had already started selling off yesterday when these acreage stories came out, causing it to slam into the limit down move.
The weather forecasts look great for harvest – in Iowa both the 6-10 and the 8-14 day forecasts are calling for below normal temps and precip. 14 days from today is October 2nd, could harvest be done by then??
There were some small stories out yesterday regarding foreign countries purchasing US soybeans after the sell-off (Taiwan for example). I did not see China mentioned – they will be a key factor in any rally potential. Corn basis at the gulf did rally yesterday, which may be helping corn iron out a bit of a bottom here.
Both corn and beans have slipped back into some strong report levels on the charts. If we can hold these levels for a couple days the market may end up staying in a relatively narrow trading range until we get into October and see another USDA report. The risk side of the equation involves the massive longs in both markets(especially the soybeans) – if they decide to sell again like they did yesterday, all bets are off.
Currently
Corn is steady/mixed – down 1c to up 1c
Soybeans are down 25 to 30 cents
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