FC Morning Market Commentary for April 18, 2013

Good morning! 

The soybean market was strong overnight, with nearby months trading into double digit gains. Soybeans are gaining strength from the same story as yesterday – led by the cash markets. Soybean meal basis is firming with traders nervous about soybean crush plants shutting down in the near future as bean supplies dwindle. 

The lineup of vessels trying to pull meal out of Argentina is growing and forcing buyers to think about buying from the U.S. instead. This has improved domestic crush margins, rallying soybean futures and basis. The new drought monitor maps are out (see below). 

 The rains have helped considerably and it is worth noting that these maps are as of Tuesday – meaning they don’t reflect the heavy rains we have seen over the past 48 hours, those will show up on next week’s maps.

I also put a comparison map on here, showing the state of Iowa Tuesday versus the first of the year. It is

starting to feel like once this crop is in the ground, the potential for above trend line yields is definitely there. Currently the last week of April and first week of May have a good chance to be above normal temps and below normal precip – meaning a planting window could open. If this stays in the forecast, profit taking could show up, especially in Dec corn. 

It could be an interesting day in Chicago today with localized flooding affecting roads and trains into downtown – won’t affect our markets much but there will be traders unable to make it to work. These heavy rains have also shut down a couple lock & dams on the Mississippi river, due to high water levels. Opening Calls Corn mixed, 1c lower to 1c higher Soybeans 7 to 10 cents higher 

Have a great day! @fccoopgrain
Dustin Weiner