FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/26/2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 3:09 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

News was sparse today with corn trading slightly lower and beans closing higher. Weekly ethanol production added some pressure to corn, slipping .67% vs. last week as rail logistic issues continue to keep a cap on what ethanol producers can ship. Ethanol stocks vs. last week were up 2.46%. Eastern Europe is still volatile, but corn and wheat vessels out of the Black Sea are still loading on schedule. Weakness in wheat (due to needed rains in Oklahoma and Texas) also found its way into the corn market.

Beans traded mixed, but was able to close 12 cents higher. Rumors of Chinese cancellations failing to materialize continues to add support. Stronger meal prices and a decent amount of fund buying were also supportive to beans today. Harvest in Brazil is over 2/3 complete and Argentine producers are discovering better-than-expected yields as they begin harvest.

Corn closed down 2 cents at $4.845

Beans closed up 12 cents at $14.40

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2058

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/27/2013

AM Comments 09/27/13

Friday, September 27, 2013, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets were pretty quiet last night – with the Quarterly Stock Report coming Monday and a harvest weekend ahead of us, we shouldn’t be too surprised.  This stocks report isn’t expected to do much to our markets, BUT the last two Sept stocks reports have caused limit moves (one way or the other), so… you never know.

 

Weather for the US still looks bearish with warmer and relatively drier conditions in the forecasts.  South American weather may be a little bearish as well because Argentina is expected to get some much needed rains this weekend. Planting had been delayed down there due to dry conditions.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1-2 cents

Soybeans up 3 to 5 cents

 

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1860

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for September 6, 2013

AM Comments 09/06/13

Good morning!

Our markets are bouncing a bit this morning ahead of the heat forecasted for this weekend and into next week.  Soybeans yesterday worked lower during the early part of the session, only to find renewed spec buying interest.  The traders remain bullish soybeans and will look to defend that position when they can.

The fundamentals in the corn market still appear bearish (negative) thanks to strong yields, a poor chart and slow demand.  The traders who are buying corn these days are probably hoping that soybeans will pull prices higher, but so far that isn’t working.

We had a jobs report out this morning that was negative – but the stock market is trading higher after its release.  The thought process behind that centers around the idea that if the economy isn’t turning around, the gov’t will have to continue their stimulus plans, so… buy buy buy.

The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am, we saw solid sales on new crop soybeans and disappointing corn sales.  Informa (a well followed private company) will release their crop production estimates later today (usually late morning).  The USDA of course comes out with their numbers next Thursday.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/27/2013

AM Comments 08/27/13

Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 7:53 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

We drifted lower overnight (on good volume) after yesterday’s big move that saw the funds come in and buy both corn and soybeans.  The market saw decent farmer selling across the country yesterday in both commodities and basis is weakening a bit because of that. 

 

The outside markets are mixed, crude oil is sharply higher, the $US is also higher and the DOW futures are a little lower. 

 

The weather still looks hot and dry, but if you dig down into the details the heat may be not quite as intense, meaning the forecast is a little milder than yesterday (emphasis on ‘a little’).  Would not be surprised to see a two-sided trade today as people attempt to digest what this record heat means for the soybean crop. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2 cents

Soybeans down 2 to 4 cents

 

Last week’s drought monitor (a new one comes out this Thursday):

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1828

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/23/2013

Morning Comments 8/23/2013

Friday, August 23, 2013, 8:25 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

It’s another weather induced rally for the soybean market with warm temperatures expected to move into the Midwest later tonight. Most of Iowa will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s starting Sunday and lasting to next weekend (maybe longer). Scattered showers will be few and far between causing concern for soybean production. Over the past 10 days the soybean market has put on over $1.50 premium for weather concerns and the question traders are asking is “is this enough” or is “this too much”. Needless to say pod fill will be watched closer over the next several weeks. Corn futures have been reluctantly pulled higher by rallies in the soybean market. Some are estimating with corn maturity where it is that only 1-3% of the US corn yield could be impacted by the heat/lack of moisture moving through the Midwest. That represents 150-400 mln bushels which is a drop in the bucket with the 1.8 bln bushel estimated ending stocks.

 

Pro Farmer released their final estimates of Iowa pegging corn yield at 171.9 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 163 bpa. Average soybean pod count was 927 vs the 3 year average of 1190. Minnesota corn yield was estimated at 181.1 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 166 bpa. Pro Farmer will release their total US production estimate later today. You can probably sum up the tour with better than expected corn yield and disappointing bean yield.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1823

 

FC Mid-day Grain Market Commentary for 7/26/2013

Mid-Day Comments 07-26-13

Friday, July 26, 2013, 11:42 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It sure looks like the markets were ready to take a breather as we are experiencing a calm end to the week (about the only calm day we have had all week).  Dec corn on the board has so far been unable to break through yesterday’s low of 4.75 cz – which is a good thing for the bulls as they look for signs of a short term bottom.  The cash market on corn is still stunned after the 50c to $1 drop in basis yesterday.  So far it appears corn basis will stay where it is, at least for today.

 

The USDA did announce this morning the sale of 220k MT of new crop soybeans to China and 211k MT of new crop corn to unknown which is somewhat helping the market stabilize. 

 

August soybean meal – after being down the limit ($20) two days in a row is actually trading again, only down $18 right now.  Still a negative input on cash soybeans of course but it is nice to see it trade again.  Meal is currently around $90 off of Tuesday’s high.

 

Ethanol futures have lost 25 cents this week (a huge move), with most of it coming over the past two days.  This means that ethanol is now at its lowest level since January which could help explain some of the weakness in corn. 

 

The newest drought monitor came out, and the big change from last week is that Iowa jumped from 20% of the state being abnormally dry to 63% abnormally dry.  Note that this was as of Tuesday (before last night’s rain). 

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1787

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/31/2013

Morning Comments 5/31/2013

Friday, May 31, 2013, 7:57 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

The has been choppy and mixed overnight with corn steady to 1 higher while beans trade 7 higher. News has been scarce the past couple of days and today seems to be no different. Exports sales this morning were poor for both corn and soybeans. Old crop bean exports showed a net negative of 4 mln bushels this week which is no surprise considering the news wires of cancelations from China. The below map shows the past 7 day precipitations totals for the US indicating Iowa has been the epicenter for the recent weather events.

The one bright side to all this rain is the drought from last year has pretty well been eliminated. The US drought monitor released yesterday showed 19% of Iowa is in some sort of drought down from last week’s 35%. Many climatologists suggest next week’s drought monitor could show Iowa free of drought or at least below 5%. Once we get past the rain events Wed/Thurs next week, weather models are suggesting a new high pressure ridge for the 9-15 day period which would allow for more “normal” rainfall expectations.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1729

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/3/2013

AM Comments 05/03/13

Friday, May 3, 2013, 8:18 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

It was a quiet trade overnight last night with corn and soybeans both trading in narrow ranges – but inching a bit higher.  So far the weather forecasts don’t look a whole lot different than yesterday.  It will stay wet over the weekend with warmer/drier air moving in next week which should cause net drying.  Once of the reasons for the rally in corn yesterday is that there is a system penciled in for late next week that is expected to bring anywhere from a couple tenths to an inch of rain.  The market will watch that one closely, the areas that miss it could have a nice planting window open up. 

 

Monday afternoon the USDA will grace us with another planting progress report.  Expectations are fairly widespread with some in the trade thinking it will show corn as 12-15% planted while others think it could be closer to 20% planted.  Either way we will be behind pace, knowing full well that we can catch up fast.

 

The outside markets could be a friendly input today.  The U.S. unemployment numbers came out, dropping unemployment to 7.5% which should cause the equity markets to bounce higher.

 

The funds were in buying corn yesterday, we will need to see them doing more of the same today or our market could give back some of these recent gains…

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1696

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/25/2013

AM Comments 04/25/13

Thursday, April 25, 2013, 8:08 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean futures were both higher overnight – as the weather forecasts are anything but certain.  The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day maps look a little more active than previously forecasted.  Weather markets are touchy – and with the large amounts of money flowing in and out of commodities these days, changes in weather are as volatile to price as ever.  Unfortunately, we could be in a weather market from now till harvest…

 

The USDA released the weekly export sales report at 7:30 this morning and it looks bearish soybeans and somewhat neutral to corn.  The soybean number came out as a net negative for old crop sales – reflecting cancellations made or sales being rolled to new crop. This has weakened spreads a bit but so far the market is holding onto its gains from the night session.

 

Some of the gains overnight can be credited to support from the outside markets.  The $US is getting whacked, trading at the lowest level this week – helping gold, crude oil and most other commodities trade higher.  The DOW is also called 50 pts higher this morning.

 

Opening Calls:

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 6 to 10 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1685

 

 

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for April 18, 2013

Good morning! 

The soybean market was strong overnight, with nearby months trading into double digit gains. Soybeans are gaining strength from the same story as yesterday – led by the cash markets. Soybean meal basis is firming with traders nervous about soybean crush plants shutting down in the near future as bean supplies dwindle. 

The lineup of vessels trying to pull meal out of Argentina is growing and forcing buyers to think about buying from the U.S. instead. This has improved domestic crush margins, rallying soybean futures and basis. The new drought monitor maps are out (see below). 

 The rains have helped considerably and it is worth noting that these maps are as of Tuesday – meaning they don’t reflect the heavy rains we have seen over the past 48 hours, those will show up on next week’s maps.

I also put a comparison map on here, showing the state of Iowa Tuesday versus the first of the year. It is

starting to feel like once this crop is in the ground, the potential for above trend line yields is definitely there. Currently the last week of April and first week of May have a good chance to be above normal temps and below normal precip – meaning a planting window could open. If this stays in the forecast, profit taking could show up, especially in Dec corn. 

It could be an interesting day in Chicago today with localized flooding affecting roads and trains into downtown – won’t affect our markets much but there will be traders unable to make it to work. These heavy rains have also shut down a couple lock & dams on the Mississippi river, due to high water levels. Opening Calls Corn mixed, 1c lower to 1c higher Soybeans 7 to 10 cents higher 

Have a great day! @fccoopgrain
Dustin Weiner

Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 4/8/2013

Afternoon Comments 4/8/2013

Monday, April 8, 2013, 3:16 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Corn closed mixed with nearby corn closing 4 ½ cents higher while new crop corn closed 3 cents lower. Nearby corn was pushed higher as traders start to liquidate shorts prior to Wednesday’s USDA report combined with the lack of any hedge pressure. New crop corn closed lower on weather patterns indicating spring outlook to be above normal precip alleviating some of the drought concern. Estimates for Wednesday’s S&D are projecting corn carryout to increase to roughly 900 mln bu.

Soybeans also found some support from short covering prior to Wednesday’s report. Weekly export sales came in at 15.2 mln bu with China accounting for more than half of that total. At this point the US only needs to export 5.8 mln per week to meet USDA projections.

A large storm is supposed to hit the Delta stretching to the Eastern US this Thursday. Projections show the corn belt could receive up to 2” of rain (map below) followed by some cold temperatures.

*New Crop Corn Survey from Farm Journal Pulse:

2013 Corn Production sold or priced

None: 53%

1-25%: 24%

26-50%: 11%

51-75%: 4%

76-99%: 3%

100%: 4%

Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/14/2013

Afternoon Comments 3/14/2013

Thursday, March 14, 2013, 2:33 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets were mixed today with corn closing higher while soybeans finished lower for the 3^rd consecutive day. Wheat traded above the 20 day moving average for the first time in over a month triggering some technically buying which inadvertantly drug corn with it. As trade starts to anticipate corn stocks that will be released the 28^th the general concencious is a figure slightly below 5 bln bu which would confirm supply remains tight.

Soybeans continue the downslide losing around 42 cents over the past 3 trading days on concerns over reduced demand from China. Rumors China has cancelled 3 cargoes offered resistance combined with technicallys selling below the 20 day moving average.

The USDA drought monitor showed slight improvement for the midwest. Since Jan. 1^st the midwest has seen 21.18% of the land go from some form of drought to no drought with the majority of that being Indiana and Illinois. Iowa over the same time frame has only seen .09% move from drought conditions to no drought, however, the severity of the drought has reduced. The below maps show the progression with the left graph being this week, middle is last week, and the right is Jan. 1^st.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1637

Prepare for summer drought now Iowa, experts advise

Prepare for summer drought now Iowa, experts advise | Local News - KCCI Home

DES MOINES, Iowa —State officials said Thursday that they are putting out the warning now for Iowans to prepare for another summer of drought ahead.

Read more: http://www.kcci.com/news/central-iowa/Prepare-for-summer-drought-now-Iowa-experts-advise/-/9357080/18554762/-/n51lonz/-/index.html#ixzz2L032mUxm

Despite the rain and snow we've received this winter, things haven't improved much, officials said.
Officials with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources said northwestern Iowa is the driest and will suffer the most as the drought continues. But even if it ends, there will likely be water shortages in areas all over the state.

Officials said water conservation is the key.

"All of us need to learn to live more lightly and not waste," said Cathleen Bascon of the Cathedral Church of St. Paul in Des Moines.

The church turned its parking lot into a rain garden. Originally the plan was to deal with flooding, but there have been other benefits.

"The water filters in, down and is retained and shot over to the gardens," said Bascom.

The rain garden proved extremely useful even in a year without much rain. "We retain it and use it for the water to water the plants," said Bascom.

Experts at the Statehouse Thursday discussed the drought outlook for 2013.

Read more: http://www.kcci.com/news/central-iowa/Prepare-for-summer-drought-now-Iowa-experts-advise/-/9357080/18554762/-/n51lonz/-/index.html#ixzz2L02x5uA7