FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/22/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/22/14

Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The soybean market popped higher again last night on the general slow start to harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt which is rallying spreads and basis for both soybean meal and soybeans as the soybean pipeline isn’t quite full yet.  The funds also appeared to be active last night with another round of aggressive buying on what looked to be high volume (overnight volume in both Dec corn and Nov beans is estimated to be around 30,000 contracts).  Farming selling of soybeans has been strong in both the US and Brazil/Argentina as most farmers are able to sift through the static and realize that these rallies are great selling opportunities in what still looks to be a great U.S. crop and overall increasing world stocks of grains/oilseeds.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2307

 

FC Morning Market Commentary 04.22.14

Good Morning! 

Overnight markets a little higher on thoughts that maybe yesterday’s down move was a bit overdone, although price rally potential may be capped by overall good spring weather for planting, and trade reports of additional Brazilian beans and Argentine sbmeal imports to the eastern half of the US. Today’s weather looks pretty good everywhere.  2 fronts to pass thru the Midwest this week, first one tomorrow then second over the weekend. Both carry pretty good chances of rain.  National corn planting progress was 6% yesterday, trade was expecting 10-12%.  Not concerning yet, as with good conditions nearly half the US corn crop can be sowed in  a week. Other news light this am, equities slightly higher and energies slightly lower.  Re-opening grain calls will be higher….corn up 3-4 and soybeans up 3-5.

Jon Setterdahl

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/26/2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 3:09 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

News was sparse today with corn trading slightly lower and beans closing higher. Weekly ethanol production added some pressure to corn, slipping .67% vs. last week as rail logistic issues continue to keep a cap on what ethanol producers can ship. Ethanol stocks vs. last week were up 2.46%. Eastern Europe is still volatile, but corn and wheat vessels out of the Black Sea are still loading on schedule. Weakness in wheat (due to needed rains in Oklahoma and Texas) also found its way into the corn market.

Beans traded mixed, but was able to close 12 cents higher. Rumors of Chinese cancellations failing to materialize continues to add support. Stronger meal prices and a decent amount of fund buying were also supportive to beans today. Harvest in Brazil is over 2/3 complete and Argentine producers are discovering better-than-expected yields as they begin harvest.

Corn closed down 2 cents at $4.845

Beans closed up 12 cents at $14.40

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2058

Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/5/2014

Morning Comments 2/5/2014

Wednesday, February 5, 2014, 8:30 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

 

Some momentum from yesterday carried through into the overnight as beans rallied on strong export demand. The rally was cut short with the potential of profitable bean and meal imports from S.A. into the U.S. Harvest yields in Brazil and early yields in Argentina look very strong – as expected. The USDA Feb WASDE report is due this coming Monday; it will be interesting to see what the USDA estimates for exports vs. January with current export sales higher than USDA estimates. Beans closed 2.25 cents lower overnight.

 

The Dollar and Dow were both lower overnight, which is supportive to commodities, but corn had a large amount of farmer selling yesterday which seemed to cap any upward movements. Corn closed 1.75 cents lower overnight.

 

Have a good day!

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2008

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for January 22, 2014

Good morning!

Overnight the corn market was able to carve out some small gains and soybeans kept their head above water until just before 7am this morning when another wave of selling came in, allowing it to drip lower.  After yesterday’s big losses, March beans are testing their 200-day moving average of $12.76 this morning.  If that fails the next spot for support (on a chart) could be the January lows down around $12.65.

The story in soybeans hasn’t changed – it is all South American weather and the forecasts look good.  The main weather system in Argentina is supposed to occur later today into tomorrow with additional rains in the forecast for next week.  Yesterday’s soybean market was spooked by rumors of Chinese cancellations – no confirmation on any of that yet.  It is probably a little too early for boats to start switching…

The corn market is pretty quiet.  Most processor basis bids are flat/steady while gulf basis is slightly firmer.  With the recent (and familiar) downward trend in corn prices, producer selling has been limited.  This feeling of steady demand mixed with limited farmer activity could be what is supporting corn futures this week.  No – this probably isn’t something that will cause a sharp rally in corn but maybe it will help corn establish a short term bottom?

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents lower

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

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FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for January 16, 2014

AM Comments 01/16/14

Thursday, January 16, 2014, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30 this morning and old crop soybean exports were at the bottom end of guesses – but the fact that we are still exporting beans when many in the market have been waiting for cancellations has caused the soybean market to pop higher once again.  When you couple these exports with yesterday’s record domestic crush numbers – the bean market should stay strong today - if beans close higher today, that will be the 6^th day in a row.  Corn sales numbers came out above the highest estimate which has also allowed corn to work higher.  Interesting to note on the trade in corn yesterday: the corn market was lower but open interest went up.  Meaning new shorts were piling on the corn market.

 

After the market paused at 7:45am, the USDA made a few more announcements.  First of all, another 465k MT of beans were sold to China (most of them new crop). Second, 126k MT of corn that was previously sold to “unknown destinations” (read: China) were cancelled.  This could take a little luster off the corn market.

 

The export news this morning is about all there is to talk about.  Argentine weather is still something to watch as this hot dry weather is supposed to relax a bit when we hit the weekend.  We did read this morning that Chinese spot soybean crush margins are running near break-even, which will be interesting to watch.

 

Opening calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 7 to 10 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1983

 

 

 

FC Afternoon Market Commentary for December 19, 2013

The corn market found  a little support this morning with export sales data above the average trade estimate. Last week US corn sales were reported at 32.6 mln bu bringing the yearly total to 1.084 bln bushels or 75% of the USDA export forecast. This morning the USDA announced 2 new corn sales, one to an unknown destination of 127 kmt and one to Korea of 130 kmt. Funds have been buyers of corn the past couple of days, taking profits before they close the books on the year which has helped drive corn prices higher.

Weather in Argentina looks better with weather models improving the chances for rain over the next 10 days while the hot spell that is currently setting in isn’t expected to last quite as long as initially indicated. Export sales data was rather disappointing for the soybean complex coming in at 15.3 mln bushels after sales to unknown destinations were cancelled. The market is stuck between concerns of Chinese cancellations and South American weather that is changing by the day.

Outside markets were mixed with crude higher while the dollar and equities also traded higher. Yesterday the Fed announced they will begin to reduce their bond buying program. The dollar has rallied on this news driving the DOW to all-time highs. Some of yesterday’s sell off was partially attributed to fund money moving from commodities to equities.

Kyle Lehman

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/15/2013

AM Comments 10/15/13

Tuesday, October 15, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Yesterday the majority of the market was faced with a limited, thin trade with banks and other businesses closed for Columbus Day (not to mention the gov’t is still closed, today is day 15 of the shutdown).  We did not receive our normal harvest progress info yesterday afternoon but we read a Reuter’s poll this morning that shows U.S. soybean harvest at 45% complete (this same poll showed 22% completion a week ago).  They estimated corn harvest to be 31% done (it was 20% last week, according to this poll).

 

There were some strong rains that fell across the Western Corn Belt yesterday, putting a stop to harvest in those areas.  This same system is creeping into the Eastern Corn Belt today but it looks to be more spotty.  Cold temps are coming right behind this storm with the potential for scattered frost in the Dakotas and Minnesota tonight.  The big risk for frost comes after the second cold front hits later this week – producing widespread frost threats for the weekend.  The good news for harvest progress (potentially bearish news for prices) is that the next major rain system doesn’t look to show up until Oct 27^th – 28^th with only light showers showing up in between now and then.

 

Quickly on South American weather… they have received some much needed rains over the past 4 or 5 days in Argentina.  This should help increase their planting pace (farmers down there were waiting for rain as their soils were too dry).  Even with that though, additional moisture will be needed (and currently isn’t forecasted).  Brazil has had much better luck as they have had timely rains and near ideal planting conditions.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to up 1c

Soybeans 3 to 5 cents lower

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1882

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/20/2013

AM Comments 09/20/13

Friday, September 20, 2013, 8:14 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets were on the defensive last night as traders continue to take profits in their bean/corn positions by selling beans and buying grains.  If you look at soybeans on a chart, they appear to be in a well-defined downward trend or channel.  Nov beans broke through major support last night and the next level of support could come from the psychological number of $13.00 on the Nov contract (which is 25-30 cents lower than we are now).

 

The weather forecasts are showing us a quiet weekend after this current front moves through.  Next week’s weather also looks to be a non-event and with no cold air threats out there – the threat of an early frost continues to slip away.

 

Traders are also watching South American planting weather as their soybean crop is going to be very important over the next 6 months.  Argentina’s outlook looks benign for the next 10 days or so.  Brazil looks to get rains this weekend before turning dry next week.  Parts of Brazil have been especially dry so these rains should be viewed as beneficial.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1853

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 8/7/2013

Afternoon Comments 8/7/2013

Wednesday, August 7, 2013, 3:17 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

If you look back through your comments over the past 12 or so trading sessions you will see a common theme..markets lower and non-threatening weather. Well today is nothing new so I won’t bore you with the same story that has been told the past several weeks. However, the bearish tone of cooler temperatures may start to turn bullish if the trend continues. Talks have started to shift over to a late planted crop with development weeks behind normal being very susceptible to an early frost/freeze. If the below normal temperature trend persists could we see an early frost? Only time will tell.

 

Ethanol data this week was neutral although production did pick up 2.5% from last week. Corn used this week for ethanol production was 89.6 mln bu vs 103.1 mln needed to reach the USDA projection. At this point it is unlikely the USDA projection will be reached considering many ethanol plants are scheduled for maintenance down time the next two months. China approved the importation on GMO from Argentina today which will add a little pressure to US markets where corn is currently 50-75 cents higher priced than South America and the Black sea region.

 

August weather outlook continues to look favorable for soybean development providing the continued bearish tone. Similar to corn the market will watch for any indication of an early frost which could be more detrimental to soybeans where a significant portion didn’t get planted until late June/early July. USDA announced yet another new crop soybean purchase from China of 220k MTs.

 

Outside markets were mixed with the dollar and equities trading lower on uncertainty of when/if the fed will begin to reduce the QE3 bond buyback program. Crude traded weaker today while metals mostly higher.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1802

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/24/2013

AM Comments 05/24/13

Friday, May 24, 2013, 8:35 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets feel a little more relaxed this morning after yesterday’s wild trade.  Nearby soybeans are finding weakness after hearing confirmations that the Argentine port workers strike has ended.  Soybeans are also finding technical weakness from the collapse yesterday - the aggressive sell off after making new highs yesterday has some people thinking that a short term top could be in on soybeans.

 

We are coming up on a 3-day weekend, which means weather forecasts have quite a bit of time to change before the market trades again.  Currently the market is looking at scattered showers for the Western Corn Belt starting late today and through early next week.  After that – the 8-14 day forecasts look to have above normal temps with close to normal rainfall for a good portion of the belt.  The majority of the trade views these forecasts as favorable for crop development.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1722

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for April 18, 2013

Good morning! 

The soybean market was strong overnight, with nearby months trading into double digit gains. Soybeans are gaining strength from the same story as yesterday – led by the cash markets. Soybean meal basis is firming with traders nervous about soybean crush plants shutting down in the near future as bean supplies dwindle. 

The lineup of vessels trying to pull meal out of Argentina is growing and forcing buyers to think about buying from the U.S. instead. This has improved domestic crush margins, rallying soybean futures and basis. The new drought monitor maps are out (see below). 

 The rains have helped considerably and it is worth noting that these maps are as of Tuesday – meaning they don’t reflect the heavy rains we have seen over the past 48 hours, those will show up on next week’s maps.

I also put a comparison map on here, showing the state of Iowa Tuesday versus the first of the year. It is

starting to feel like once this crop is in the ground, the potential for above trend line yields is definitely there. Currently the last week of April and first week of May have a good chance to be above normal temps and below normal precip – meaning a planting window could open. If this stays in the forecast, profit taking could show up, especially in Dec corn. 

It could be an interesting day in Chicago today with localized flooding affecting roads and trains into downtown – won’t affect our markets much but there will be traders unable to make it to work. These heavy rains have also shut down a couple lock & dams on the Mississippi river, due to high water levels. Opening Calls Corn mixed, 1c lower to 1c higher Soybeans 7 to 10 cents higher 

Have a great day! @fccoopgrain
Dustin Weiner

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/12/2013

Morning Comments 4/12/2013

Friday, April 12, 2013, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets are higher this morning led by wheat. The USDA finally confirmed rumors of China purchasing US origin wheat which has provided some support to the corn market. Despite negative outside markets, commodities have managed to rally overnight on seemingly all weather news. Not only has the cold and wet weather slowed planting efforts here in the US but China is seeing similar conditions with neither of our forecasts expecting conditions to improve in the next 10 days. Monday will be the first US corn planting estimates which is expected to come in near the average of 5% but well behind last year’s record pace of 17%. Weather models suggest another weather event similar to this weeks to occur the first part of next week with snow expected in the Northern Plains and sub-freezing temperatures to reach as far south as Oklahoma.

Argentine bean harvest is estimated to be 24% complete as the weather has allowed harvest to progress without any delays. Talk of demand spurring up out of Europe has provided the soybean market a little support this morning. Brazil announced they will bump their biodiesel blend up to 10% soy oil from the current rate of 7% using an additional 300k MT.

Outside markets are taking a beating this morning on unfriendly economic data. Currently crude is down $2.01, metals down, equities down, and the dollar higher.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1670

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2013

AM Comments 03/26/13

Tuesday, March 26, 2013, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

It was another mixed overnight session as our markets tread water up until Thursday’s USDA reports.  Corn and soybeans traded on both sides of yesterday’s close throughout the night session. 

Average trade guesses for Thursday’s report:

·         US ACRES

o   Corn 97.3 million acres

o   Soybeans 78.4 million acres

·         STOCKS AS OF MARCH 1

o   Corn 4.995 billion bushels

o   Soybeans 948 million bushels

Any major variations off these numbers will cause market spikes.  Interesting to note the corn acres, basically expected to stay near unchanged from last year.  A month or so ago this was rumored to be 98-100m acres.  The cold weather has changed some traders’ ideas – basically cementing the fact that corn planting won’t be early although it is still premature to consider planting to be late.  I’d expect the market to start trading extended weather forecasts around, oh… 15 minutes after the report is digested!

Currently

Corn is down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans are down 1 to 2 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1648

BRAZIL TRUCK LINE (from a week or so ago):

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/20/2013

AM Comments 03/20/13

Wednesday, March 20, 2013, 8:02 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Our markets are starting off higher this morning as the corn market continues its move to the upside.  Soybeans are also higher this morning, yesterday was the 6^th day in a row that soybeans closed lower – so a little bounce in the market is probably needed.

For the most part, the old crop corn and soybean markets appear to be trending in opposite directions.  Corn is gaining strength from strong domestic demand thanks to good ethanol margins.  Soybeans are weaker on poor export demand – China has been cancelling large chunks of soybean purchases they had on with Brazil, because of their poor logistics, and doesn’t appear to be buying them back (yet).  It is assumed that they will just buy them back from South America later in the crop year.  Domestic demand for soybeans is still strong, which is keeping soybean basis firm, although U.S. crush plants have seen their margins deteriorate lately. 

 

The weather forecast for the U.S. looks to remain cool and wet which – believe it or not – is starting to get a few people nervous about the timing of corn planting. 

Currently

Corn is 2 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans are 6 to 9 cents higher

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/18/2013

Morning Comments 3/18/2013

Monday, March 18, 2013, 9:09 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Our markets are sharply lower this morning with corn trading 5 lower while soybeans trade 14 lower. The dollar is sharply higher as the IMF (international monetary fund) has provided $10 billion to bail out the small country of Cyprus off the coast of Turkey. This has investors running to safer investments that aren’t tied to the Euro. EU finance ministers have agreed to force citizens to share the cost of the bailout by incurring a bank deposit tax of 6.75% on all deposits made into Cyprus banks. Talk about a way to kill consumer confidence. It is rumored that citizens with more than 100 euros in their account were assessed a 20% tax (20% of their account disappeared overnight). With these drastic measures being taken traders are thinking the European debt crisis may be worse than initially thought.

It seems the ground hog may have been wrong this year with forecasts showing winter may extend a few more weeks. Over the next 10 days the Midwest and Central plains are projected to see below normal temperatures with nearly normal precip.

South American weather remains dry providing harvest to continue without delays. Brazil harvest is seem at 58% vs. 55% last year and 42% on average. Logistical concerns are still in question with port lines in Brazil at 14.9 miles long, up from 11.8 miles long just one day ago.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1639

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/15/2013

AM Comments 03/15/13

Friday, March 15, 2013, 8:25 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Today looks to be a quiet day with very little new news to talk about.  The $US is sharply lower this morning which should benefit commodity prices overall.

The USDA’s stocks and acreage report is now less than two weeks away – the bulls feel that the stocks number will reflect higher demand than expected – pushing nearby May futures in both corn and soybeans higher.  The bears feel that the record soybean crop in South America and overall world weather outlooks that look “normal” are telling us current prices are too high.

Currently

Corn is steady to down 2 cents

Soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1638

Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/14/2013

Afternoon Comments 3/14/2013

Thursday, March 14, 2013, 2:33 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets were mixed today with corn closing higher while soybeans finished lower for the 3^rd consecutive day. Wheat traded above the 20 day moving average for the first time in over a month triggering some technically buying which inadvertantly drug corn with it. As trade starts to anticipate corn stocks that will be released the 28^th the general concencious is a figure slightly below 5 bln bu which would confirm supply remains tight.

Soybeans continue the downslide losing around 42 cents over the past 3 trading days on concerns over reduced demand from China. Rumors China has cancelled 3 cargoes offered resistance combined with technicallys selling below the 20 day moving average.

The USDA drought monitor showed slight improvement for the midwest. Since Jan. 1^st the midwest has seen 21.18% of the land go from some form of drought to no drought with the majority of that being Indiana and Illinois. Iowa over the same time frame has only seen .09% move from drought conditions to no drought, however, the severity of the drought has reduced. The below maps show the progression with the left graph being this week, middle is last week, and the right is Jan. 1^st.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1637

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/13/2013

Morning Comments 3/13/2013

Wednesday, March 13, 2013, 8:34 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

The soybean market is under pressure this morning trading 14 cents lower while corn trades steady to 2 lower. Soybeans are trading lower on a couple of newsworthy pieces.  News that China port inventories are growing reducing the pressure on South American logistics and reduces the chances of vessels being switched to the US is providing most of the bearish feel this morning. Chinese hog  profitability has fallen below breakeven which has traders thinking soybean demand may back off if hog inventories begin to shrink.

Informa has recently backed off their estimate for 2013 new crop corn plantings. In January they had an estimate of 99 million acres and yesterday the head chief announced their feelings are more in the line of 97 million acres and possibly could be as low as 95 million. Bean acres are felt to be 80 million, up from 78.8 as the recent markets have made new crop bean production more appealing.

10 day weather forecast is benign as the Midwest is expected to see normal precipitation with below normal temperatures. South America is expected to see below normal precip over the next 10 days which will allow harvest to progress without delays.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1634

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2013

3-6-13 AM Comments

Wednesday, March 6, 2013, 8:11 am
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl

Grain markets all lower to start this morning on basically a lack of news and some consolidating trade ahead of Friday’s USDA monthly supply/demand report. Trade feeling better about US crop potential with recent precipitation events, although some areas in the western corn belt remain very dry. South American weather is ok, with increased rain chances for dry areas in Argentina. Brazil soybean harvest progressing well, except for the 60-day waiting time to load ocean vessels. The Brazilian corn crop is also good, with their double-crop corn reportedly excellent so far.

USDA report Friday could see some demand adjustments to the export categories….corn might be lowered further and soybeans increased.  The more important USDA report this month will be the intended acreage and quarterly grain stocks report out on March 28^th.  The stocks number will verify estimates for domestic feed demand and set the tone for prices heading into planting season. After that, it’s all weather.

Corn & Beans:  both down 3-5 cents this am

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1624