AM Comments 05/09/13
Thursday, May 9, 2013, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
Our markets were mixed last night with corn steady/lower and
soybeans higher. The soybean market is fairly easy to figure out – the strength
is coming from the front end of the market as domestic demand centers struggle
to find willing sellers of cash soybeans. Export demand for soybeans is
non-existent as parts of the Eastern U.S. are actually importing soybeans from
South America. If those imports ever started to come into the U.S. gulf this
soybean market could collapse (especially basis) in a hurry.
Corn on the other hand is in a bit of a pickle. The USDA
S&D report is out tomorrow with the trade expecting next year’s carryout to
look BIG, as in “just under 2 billion bushels” big. This has corn traders
unwilling to get too long this market. The corn market is also (of course)
trading weather. Yesterday it appeared the corn belt would have a nearly 7-day
break in moisture next week and today that appears to be closer to 5 days. Dec
corn was 7c lower at one point last night but has since rallied back to steady.
The 8-14 day forecast appears to be getting wetter (map
below), meaning whatever planting window shows up next week may need to be hit
hard to keep producers from planting a large percentage of their corn acres
during the last week of May. It is worth noting that so far these planting
delays appear to be more of a Western Corn Belt problem. The Eastern Corn Belt
has had some solid planting take place recently and that will likely be
reflected in Monday afternoon’s planting progress report.
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