FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/13/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/13/14

Thursday, November 13, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

After a big day yesterday that featured big market swings with prices rallying to new highs in both corn and soybeans followed by a weaker close in soybeans. Also of note corn futures are said to have traded a record daily volume yesterday with over 663 thousand contracts of corn trading hands yesterday!  This high volume implies that there has been big speculative buying taking place. 

 

The soy complex sell off can be attributed to rumors that multiple cargoes of South American soybean meal were booked to ship into the East Coast of the U.S.  That, along with good farmer selling pressured prices.

 

Overnight the markets were mixed but are trading firmer this morning on good volume which again is likely due to new spec/fund buying.  I’d expect another choppy day with both markets potentially trading both sides of yesterday’s close at some point through the day.  However, if the funds are going to stand in here and buy – dips may be short term…

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2333

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/4/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/04/14

Tuesday, November 4, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets are lower this morning with the charts (especially soybeans) starting to turn ugly as the market quickly retreats off of recent highs.  A lot of chatter this morning about the energy markets, particularly crude oil.  Crude oil was down $3/barrel at one point last night, pushing to the lowest levels we have seen since 2009!  This type of action seems to have put all commodity futures on the defensive.

 

Another input into last night’s lower prices was the release of private crop estimates yesterday afternoon which confirmed ideas that production/yields will be big (a 14.7 billion bushel corn crop and a bean crop that is over 4 billion bushels).  Another private company is set to release their estimates at 10am today.  These numbers are all being published this week because the USDA will be out this coming Monday with the November S&D report. 

 

Weather… although there are spotty rains in parts of the corn belt the general feeling is that the weather is still favorable for harvest and over the next 7-10 days harvest should continue to progress.   

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 5 to 7 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2320

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/3/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/3/2014

Monday, November 3, 2014, 8:11 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Pullback pressure this morning has corn and soybean futures lower at the 7:45 break after positive performances for both commodities on Friday. Soybeans are down 10 cents and corn is 4 cents lower. Harvest progress and good weather is adding some pressure too as we look at a favorable national forecast for this coming week. Expectations for tonight’s harvest progress report show us gaining some ground compared to our average pace. Corn is expected to be 61% to 65% complete (73% on average). Soybeans are expected to show us catching up to our average pace of 84%. We’ve got a chance for rain across Iowa today and another small chance on Wednesday. The 10-day has rain in the forecast for next Monday as well, but the feel is most of corn harvest should be wrapping up by then.

 

Soybean meal basis (the reason for our recent run in soybeans) still hasn’t broken lower. We have a lot of soybeans around, but the number of bushels that are available due to logistical hang-ups are much fewer. Once those issues get resolved, we can expect the recent premium placed on the market to disappear.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2319

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/28/14

Tuesday, October 28, 2014, 8:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It was another surprising night last night in the grain trade as the futures markets rallied sharply again on what looks to be a new round of fund money entering the market.  The phones here have been steadily ringing with questions as to why??  These questions are valid and somewhat tough to answer because as we look at the fundamental picture laid out in front of us, we have record world stocks of soybeans and a record U.S. soybean crop in front of us – and rallying markets. It is hard to make sense of that for sure. 

 

First glance, this rally yesterday appears driven by soybean meal.  Strong soymeal basis in the eastern U.S. has helped push the December meal contract up to levels it hasn’t seen since June and Dec meal is now only $20 off the contract high!  There are a couple reasons for this move, generally there is strong demand for meal but the slow pace to bean harvest in the East is making it hard to find.  Yes, according to yesterday’s harvest progress report the US is 70% harvested on beans but Illinois is only 63%, Indiana is only 50% and Ohio is only 50% complete.  Those three states are approximately 25% behind their average pace which has that part of the country struggling to fill the pipeline.  The second factor that needs mentioned is the transportation situation.  Meal basis in Illinois is over $50/ton higher than it is here in parts of Iowa.  You would like to think you could just rail meal from West to East to take care of that gap.  Unfortunately if you tried to do that today, you would pay big money for the cars AND with slow service you would struggle to get the cars in time to make a difference.  So instead you panic a bit and pay whatever it takes to get the meal (hence the historic meal basis levels).  This of course drives meal prices higher which takes soybean prices higher – then the funds get involved as they bail out of their short futures positions and here we are. High prices in a year where the U.S. looks to be flush with soybeans (eventually).

 

Weather… parts of the eastern Corn Belt had some small rains come through last night but overall the weather forecast looks excellent for harvest progress in the US for both corn and soybeans.  The soy complex could feel a lot different later this week or early next as harvest finally pushes soybean onto the market.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 5 to 7 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 20 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2314

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/27/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/27/14

Monday, October 27, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It was a good harvest weather weekend across the Corn Belt and the weather forecasts for the week look mostly dry which should accelerate harvest as many farmers wrap up soybeans and switch turn their full attention to corn. The weekly harvest progress report will be out this afternoon, soybeans are expected to come in at over 70% harvested while corn should be over 40% harvested. 

 

A news story this morning that could end up being bearish to corn and soybean prices is the reelection of the Brazilian President. This is expected to weaken the Brazilian currency (the Real) which would not only make Brazilian exports more competitive but it also likely to cause an increase in farmer selling in that part of the world.

 

Overall expect weaker markets for today and while the markets don’t appear poised to test contract lows anytime soon – an active harvest and negative fundamentals should keep things under pressure today and potentially throughout the rest of the week.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2312

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/22/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/22/14

Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The soybean market popped higher again last night on the general slow start to harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt which is rallying spreads and basis for both soybean meal and soybeans as the soybean pipeline isn’t quite full yet.  The funds also appeared to be active last night with another round of aggressive buying on what looked to be high volume (overnight volume in both Dec corn and Nov beans is estimated to be around 30,000 contracts).  Farming selling of soybeans has been strong in both the US and Brazil/Argentina as most farmers are able to sift through the static and realize that these rallies are great selling opportunities in what still looks to be a great U.S. crop and overall increasing world stocks of grains/oilseeds.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2307

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/3/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/03/14

Friday, October 3, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets traded for most of the night session steady to a little higher but as the markets crept towards the 7:45am pause they turned lower, making new lows for the day.  This was all done on very little volume, meaning it was a thin trade overnight. 

 

There isn’t a lot of news to go on this morning except that the outside markets are making it awfully difficult to sustain rallies.  The $US keeps getting stronger and stronger which is not good for commodities as this causes us to be less competitive in the world markets.  Later this morning Informa (well followed private company) will be out with their crop production estimates.  Remember, next Friday the 10^th is when the USDA releases their Oct S&D report. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans steady to 2c lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2288

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/2/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/02/14

Thursday, October 2, 2014, 8:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It looks like another quiet day in the grain markets with corn and soybean futures both trading slightly lower overnight while wheat is trading higher.  Yield estimates are still on the rise as another private company was out yesterday afternoon projecting that the U.S. soybean crop will be over 4 billion bushels and the corn crop will be near 15 billion bushels.  Big numbers without a doubt. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans 1 to 3c lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2286

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/1/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/01/14

Wednesday, October 1, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets are all slightly lower this morning on very little news.  Locally here in Iowa rains have shut harvest down in some places until early next week due to waterlogged fields.  (the 24 precip and current radar maps are shown to the right).  The dry, windy forecast for this weekend into next week should give producers an opportunity to dry out and get back in the fields.  They may want to hustle, as rain chances perk back up a touch in the extended 8-14 day outlook…

 

Other than that?  Not much going on.  There has been a lot of negative news floating around our markets lately, whether it’s big yields or a strong $US or nasty looking charts – everyone has found a reason to sell futures.  To a farmer/producer it may feel like there is no end in sight to how low this can go, but to a technical chart trader – November soybeans look to find its first level of support around 8.81 (approx. 30c lower than yesterday’s close) and its next level of major support is the Dec ’08 low of 7.76 ¼.  December corn futures should find support from 3.17 down to 3.10 (10c lower than yesterday’s close) and its next level of major support is the Sep ’09 & Dec ’08 lows between 2.96 ¾ and 2.90.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents lower

Soybeans 2 to 3 cents lower

 http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2284

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/25/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/25/14

Thursday, September 25, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

When corn and soybeans paused at 7:45 this morning they were both ¼ of a cent higher.  So… not a lot of big news out today as you can imagine.  The weather forecasts are starting to look a little more active for late next week which could throw a wrench into our harvest progress as rains move into the western belt.  The temps though – they look to remain above normal in the 6-10 day maps with no signs of frost to be seen.  It is worth noting that in the 8-14 day maps, temps slip back to a more normal/seasonal pattern.

 

Export sales were out this morning – big soybean sales and decent corn sales but this was all right in line with expectations so no surprises there. Overall for today, the wet weather might be enough to keep corn and soybeans out of the red for a while – but with crops that appear to still be growing in size… don’t be surprised with lower prices as we get closer to the end of the week. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady/mixed

Soybeans steady/mixed

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2276

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/24/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/24/14

Wednesday, September 24, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Rain showers are moving across IA this morning which should put a temporary stop to the early harvest that had started over the last few days.  The markets are bouncing a bit higher this morning, led by wheat futures.  Rallies could be difficult to hold however, as both corn and soybeans are still near their contract lows and yield reports are showing no signs of slowing down. 

 

Overall for today, the bulls are hoping that this little overnight rally is a sign that the selling will be done for a bit.  It feels like with the weather stopping harvest in the West, this market might actually hold above steady today.  I still worry about these prices on Friday afternoon, ahead of what looks like it could be a big harvest weekend…

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2275

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/22/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/22/14

Monday, September 22, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

New contract lows are being made this morning on corn, soybeans & meal as the markets grind lower on good weather and big yield reports.  The majority of the Midwest looks to stay warm and dry for the rest of week with no signs of a freeze or frost for the next couple of weeks.  The yield reports coming out of Illinois are just absolutely phenomenal (a bunch of from 250 to 300+ bpa) and with the clear weather forecast – we should start to hear even more yields from across the corn belt soon.  I did hear this morning that some producers in the eastern corn belt will temporarily stop harvesting corn and switch to beans soon because the beans are drying down fast.  This could be the final nail in the coffin on the old crop / new crop soybean inverse as the bean pipeline starts to fill.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 4 cents lower

Soybeans 14 to 17 cents lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2272

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/19/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/19/14

Friday, September 19, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets are drifting lower this morning as harvest inches closer to the heart of the corn belt.  Soybeans made new lows in the electronic trade last night and when the markets paused at 7:45am they were only a penny off of those lows.  It feels like we aren’t done making new lows for today...  There really isn’t much for fundamental (S&D) news out there this morning – the outside markets seem to be in charge.  The $US is higher again (approaching the high for the week) which has most commodities on the defensive.

 

The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still look great for harvest progress – warmer and drier.  It is however worth noting that at the tail end of the 8-14 day window a wetter pattern shows up in the far western part of the corn belt.  Even with that, overall you’d have to view the updated maps as natural/bearish – nothing to get worried about.

 

Later this morning Informa (a well followed private company) will be releasing their acreage estimates, which unfortunately may be the most exciting thing to happen today in regards to fundamentals. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 2 cents

Soybeans down 6 to 7 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2269

 

 

FC's Morning Grain Market Report for 9-11-14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/11/14

Thursday, September 11, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Today is report day – at 11AM we will have the September S&D report from the USDA.  The markets are on the defensive ahead of it as soybeans made new contract lows last night while corn is still bouncing on its contract lows.  As mentioned here before, the trade is leaning towards increased carryouts in both corn and soybeans (details below).  You have to wonder, if the USDA confirms these bigger carryouts – is there still downside potential from here?  Or maybe the market has done enough work and will wait for yield reports to roll in before working lower.  We will all be a lot smarter in just under 3 hours…

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 4 cents

Have a great day!

FC Morning Grain Market Report for 9/10/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/10/14

Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The monthly S&D report will be out at 11am tomorrow, and the markets seem quiet ahead of that.  Traders are expecting an uptick in both corn and soybean yields which could help explain the selling we have seen the last few trading days. 

Other than the report tomorrow – there isn’t much out there for fundamental news.  As you have no doubt heard from your local weatherperson -- the cold weather is coming… temps are expected to bottom out Friday night.  The good news is that frost risk is very low for the heavy corn growing areas of the belt.  In other weather stories – heavy rains slipped through southern IA last night dropping anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain!  The next 14 days look dry which will help get fields ready for harvest.  (8-14 day maps from NOAA are below)

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans steady to 2c higher

Have a great day!

FC Morning Grain Market Report for 9/9/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/09/14

Tuesday, September 9, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets are starting off weaker today – not a lot of news out there to give us direction other than diminishing chances for a severe frost (the weather models look the same as yesterday, maybe a touch warmer in spots).  The trade is also getting itself prepped for the USDA’s release of the September S&D which is due out Thursday morning.  Generally speaking this report doesn’t usually make big changes to crop size (they prefer the ‘wait and see’ mode it seems), however the trade still expects to see rising 14/15 carryout numbers in corn, soybeans and wheat.  They will however adjust old crop carryouts, currently the market bias is that we will get a slightly wider corn carryout and a slightly tighter bean carryout. 

In the outside markets, the $US is still pushing itself higher which feels like a heavy, bearish anchor on our commodity prices – limiting rally attempts.  Both Dec corn and Nov bean futures contracts seem primed to test recent lows and potentially test long term support below the market.

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents lower

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents lower

Have a great day!

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/4/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/04/14

Thursday, September 4, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets feel like they want to bounce back this morning after a nasty down day yesterday, but are so far unable.  One thing that could be keeping a lid on any recovery this morning is the fact that the $US is sharply higher – the Dollar Index is pushing to the highest levels in over a year!

 

Weather is still pretty much the same… the Midwest will remain wet throughout next week while temps are a touch below normal.  There are chances for a bit of a cold snap next Thursday/Friday (Sep 11^th/12^th) but from what we read this is “unlikely to induce a killing freeze”. 

 

Overall for today look for a steady/weaker tone.  The corn market made new lows yesterday and the ones who are long (farmers) were frozen in their tracks while the ones who are short (the funds) kept on selling.  The game of chicken between the short funds and the long producers will likely come to an end sometime soon and in the process could set the price range for the rest of the calendar year.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans down 3 to 5 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2251

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/3/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/03/14

Wednesday, September 3, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets started the overnight session off weaker last night and never looked back thanks to better than expected crop ratings and large production estimates from well-followed private companies (FC Stone was out yesterday, Allendale was out already this morning and I believe Informa will be out later this morning). 

 

The first little frost/freeze scare of the season is popping up this morning, but it doesn’t look to be a major one, NOAA is showing below normal temps for the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes through Sep 15^th but it doesn’t look like U.S. row crops will see much for damage.  Frost is the last threat against what is widely considered to be a record corn/soybean crop this year. 

 

Generally speaking look for weaker markets today as the trade deals with this large crop that somehow has improving conditions!  The idea that “big crops get bigger” will likely weigh on this market as we inch towards harvest.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 5 to 7 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2250

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/2/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/02/14

Tuesday, September 2, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets look to start the holiday shortened week on a choppy but higher note.  Not a lot of reasons for the higher markets this morning… weekly good-to-excellent crop ratings will be out this afternoon and are expected to remain historically high.  Also, the weather forecasts look great with no frost forecasted through at least the first 15 days of September (normal to above normal temps and above normal moisture in the extended maps).  The nearby 6-10 day maps are below.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1 cent higher

Soybeans 3 to 5 cents higher

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/29/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/29/2014

Friday, August 29, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

We are a bit saturated this morning in Central Iowa – 24-hour accumulations show anywhere from 1” to 4” of rain for the central 1/3 of the state. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts from NOAA paint the same picture: wetter and warmer than average. The warmer temps will be welcome as corn needs to play a bit of catch up on GDDs. At the break, corn futures were 1 to 3 lower, taking a breather after a positive close yesterday. Yesterday’s momentum carried soybeans through the overnight trade with all forward months 2 cents higher this morning. Look for the market to be choppy today as traders position themselves for the 3 day weekend break.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2247