FC's Morning Grain Market Report for 9-11-14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/11/14

Thursday, September 11, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Today is report day – at 11AM we will have the September S&D report from the USDA.  The markets are on the defensive ahead of it as soybeans made new contract lows last night while corn is still bouncing on its contract lows.  As mentioned here before, the trade is leaning towards increased carryouts in both corn and soybeans (details below).  You have to wonder, if the USDA confirms these bigger carryouts – is there still downside potential from here?  Or maybe the market has done enough work and will wait for yield reports to roll in before working lower.  We will all be a lot smarter in just under 3 hours…

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 4 cents

Have a great day!

FC Morning Grain Market Report for 9/10/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/10/14

Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The monthly S&D report will be out at 11am tomorrow, and the markets seem quiet ahead of that.  Traders are expecting an uptick in both corn and soybean yields which could help explain the selling we have seen the last few trading days. 

Other than the report tomorrow – there isn’t much out there for fundamental news.  As you have no doubt heard from your local weatherperson -- the cold weather is coming… temps are expected to bottom out Friday night.  The good news is that frost risk is very low for the heavy corn growing areas of the belt.  In other weather stories – heavy rains slipped through southern IA last night dropping anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain!  The next 14 days look dry which will help get fields ready for harvest.  (8-14 day maps from NOAA are below)

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans steady to 2c higher

Have a great day!

FC Morning Grain Market Report for 9/9/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/09/14

Tuesday, September 9, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets are starting off weaker today – not a lot of news out there to give us direction other than diminishing chances for a severe frost (the weather models look the same as yesterday, maybe a touch warmer in spots).  The trade is also getting itself prepped for the USDA’s release of the September S&D which is due out Thursday morning.  Generally speaking this report doesn’t usually make big changes to crop size (they prefer the ‘wait and see’ mode it seems), however the trade still expects to see rising 14/15 carryout numbers in corn, soybeans and wheat.  They will however adjust old crop carryouts, currently the market bias is that we will get a slightly wider corn carryout and a slightly tighter bean carryout. 

In the outside markets, the $US is still pushing itself higher which feels like a heavy, bearish anchor on our commodity prices – limiting rally attempts.  Both Dec corn and Nov bean futures contracts seem primed to test recent lows and potentially test long term support below the market.

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents lower

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents lower

Have a great day!

FC August USDA Report Summary for 8/12/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

August USDA Report

Tuesday, August 12, 2014, 11:08 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The USDA report was out and for those who were expecting, or maybe hoping, for some fireworks – it is a bit disappointing (read: quiet).  Corn yields came in below the average trade guess..  At first glance you could say that with the USDA coming in with a smaller crop – corn prices should be higher, maybe even sharply higher.  It is important to note that this crop is still projected to have a record US yield on it, pushing it over 14 billion bushels…. that is a lot of corn.  If you take that and add in the thought that in years like this “big crops get bigger” you could have a hard time going long corn in here which helps explain why prices are struggling to move higher despite the lower yield projected from the USDA.

 

Soybeans.  This one looks a little bearish.  The USDA bumped the yield up a touch and carried those bushels right into a now larger-than-expected carryout for next summer – 430 million bushels.  For reference the carryout this summer is just 140 million bushels so that is a big change on the overall availability of soybeans in the market.  Generally speaking beans still look overpriced when compared to corn.  It feels like the market is still holding onto a weather premium in beans (how will August finish up?).  If we can get another few weeks down the road without cutting into potential soybean production you can make a case for beans to go test some new lows.

 

Some facts/stats from today’s report on the 14/15 crop:

·         USDA corn yield 167.4 bpa, the trade expected 170.1bpa

·         USDA corn carryout 1.808 billion bushels, the trade expected 2.005bb

·         USDA soybean yield at 45.4bpa, the trade expected 45.2bpa

·         USDA soybean carryout 460 million bushels, the trade expected 414mb

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2227