FC Morning Grain Market Report for 9/10/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/10/14

Wednesday, September 10, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The monthly S&D report will be out at 11am tomorrow, and the markets seem quiet ahead of that.  Traders are expecting an uptick in both corn and soybean yields which could help explain the selling we have seen the last few trading days. 

Other than the report tomorrow – there isn’t much out there for fundamental news.  As you have no doubt heard from your local weatherperson -- the cold weather is coming… temps are expected to bottom out Friday night.  The good news is that frost risk is very low for the heavy corn growing areas of the belt.  In other weather stories – heavy rains slipped through southern IA last night dropping anywhere from 3 to 6 inches of rain!  The next 14 days look dry which will help get fields ready for harvest.  (8-14 day maps from NOAA are below)

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans steady to 2c higher

Have a great day!

FC Morning Market Ag Commentary

It is a bit of a mixed bag so far this morning – old crop beans are higher while new crop beans are lower.  The monthly NOPA soybean crush report will be released at 11am today and the trade is expecting to see big crush numbers on this report (which would explain while old crop beans are rallying vs new crop).  

Corn is quiet this morning and is trading near steady – maybe up a penny.  Overall the weather still looks great for crop development (crop ratings will be out this afternoon that will likely reflect that).  If the weather continues to stay benign, Dec corn should go test its contract lows that were made back in January.  However, for now corn feels like it is taking a breather from all the selling, on Friday it rallied off the lows made mid-last week and today it is trying to hold onto those gains.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans steady to 5c higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

In what will likely be written off as just a short-covering bounce – both corn and soybeans are trading higher this morning.  This feels awfully similar to last Friday when traders bailed out of their short positions (which pushed corn 10c higher that day) before the weekend only to sell the market off again Monday, taking the gains back.

The weather forecasts still look great although everybody is watching another severe storm system that is due to hit Nebraska this Saturday night (map below) that could once again bring large hail to that part of the country.  Those that miss the hail however could get a nice 1-2” rain out of the deal…

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 3 to 5 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

This morning our corn and soybean markets are trying to bounce a bit after yesterday’s sharply lower trade.  Technically (read: on the charts) the market appears oversold – with no new fundamental news changing either the supply or demand sides of the equation.  These ‘oversold’ conditions are the reasons (or are the excuses) for why corn and beans are a shade higher so far this morning. 

Weather… more of the same.  The forecast over the next couple weeks (which takes us into the 3^rd week of June) looks like above normal precip and normal to below normal temps.  This of course looks great for crop development. 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 1c lower to 2c higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

The corn and soybean markets were mixed at the 7:45 break this morning with corn and old crop beans lower, and new crop beans higher. The weekly export sales report showed corn exports on the high end of estimates; soybeans were net positive, but within expectations. Both are supportive to corn and beans, but with weather continuing to stay favorable, we will likely see a mixed trade into next week. The 3-day forecast shows Iowa receiving additional rainfall. On June 11^th the USDA will release the monthly Supply & Demand estimate – few changes from last month are expected.

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to 2 cents lower

Beans mixed: Nearby 6 cents lower, November a penny higher

Have a great day!

Joel Pudenz

Farmers Cooperative Company

FC Morning Market Commentary

Corn and bean futures are all weaker this morning after yesterday afternoon’s crop conditions report confirmed to us that this corn crop is indeed off to a great start.   You combine that with a forecast that looks non-threatening and it’s no surprise that prices are struggling to hold in here.  I stuck a couple of maps down at the bottom of these comments that show both the 1-month and 3-month temperature outlooks for the U.S..  The big thing there is the lack of high heat…  These types of predictions will be watched closely as eyes start to turn towards the pollination window. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 6 to 8 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

Good Morning and welcome to June.  Markets are pretty simple to explain this morning….everything is lower on good weather.  Corn down 4-5 and soybeans down 5-8.  First weekly crop ratings on corn will be out this afternoon, with large % of good/excellent expected.  Depending on amount of soybeans emerged, it may be another week before soybean ratings begin. 

FC Morning Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures are lower this morning - actually grains in general are weaker as this afternoon’s weekly planting progress report is expected to show good progress.  Feels like corn planting should be right around 90% complete (87% is the 5yr average) while soybean planting should be around 60% complete (55% is the 5yr average).  As you can see in the weather map below ,wetter weather is coming in the 6-10 day forecast while the short term forecast calls for a few more days of general dryness which for all intents and purposes should put an end to the planting season.  The crops are off to a good start and the markets are starting to reflect that…

Generally speaking this looks like a rough start to the short 4-day trading week.  The funds are long both corn and soybeans and with excellent weather forecasts it will be a tough battle if we are to see much in the way of higher prices.  This is a choppy time of year, one change in an extended weather forecast and the market can move aggressively one way or the other – usually making everybody look foolish in the process.

Opening Calls

Corn down 5 to 7 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

July soybean futures made new contract highs last night (technically they were made early this morning) and November beans are now at their highest price in almost a year… and there really isn’t a whole lot of new fundamental news that can be credited (blamed).  The markets actually opened lower last night before turning higher later on – appearing to simply follow a higher move in Asian markets that pushed the funds into “buy mode”.  I think with a 3-day weekend coming up  (which some will try to turn into a 4-day weekend) and a general feeling of tightness in old crop U.S. soybeans (as evidenced by basis levels that continue to creep higher) the market just found support.

At 7:30 this morning, the export sales report was out and it also injected friendly news into soybeans (we still haven’t received our needed cancellations), pulling them an additional 5-10c higher asap after release - and it was neutral/friendly to corn as well.  Details below in chart (in MT).

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 6 cents higher

Soybeans 18 to 25 cents higher

Dustin Weiner 

Have a great day!

FC Morning Market Commentary 20 May 2014

The corn and soybean market were both higher last night.  July corn futures are hovering right around the 100-day moving average of 4.76 and Dec corn futures are hovering right around the 100-day moving average of 4.77.  What does it all mean??  Maybe not much, but here are a couple simple ways to look at that – you could say there is great support there and that could be a short term bottom in corn, or… you could say that if we drop sharply below those levels, corn could be due for another break lower, potentially back to the price levels we had in Jan/Feb (approx. 30c lower than today). 

Overall though? Weather will likely determine price as we roll into June.  You probably already saw that the planting progress numbers peg us near the 5-year average for the U.S. in both corn and bean planting (if you didn’t see those, there is a table below) which is neutral/bearish.  It won’t be long and the Monday afternoon reports from the USDA will switch from “percent planted” to “percent rated good-to-excellent”.  I threw a couple weather maps at the bottom of these comments, generally showing good planting weather in the 5-day (QPF) and above normal temps and precip after that. 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

FC Morning Market Commentary 051214

The markets were quiet last night while weather across the Western Corn Belt was not – heavy storms rolled through overnight, and it is still raining in Iowa as I type this up this morning.  After these storms push East, the forecasts look generally dry for the next 7 days, which will be help get producers back in the fields.

There really wasn’t a whole lot of news out over the weekend -- other than stories out of Ukraine (yes, it is still tense over there).  The markets don’t seem too concerned about that today, as global equities are higher – but at some point the EU and the US could come up with some new, additional economic sanctions.  As far as the grain trade is concerned, to-date there have still been no disruptions in regards to corn/wheat trade flows out of that area.

Overall for today look for prices to generally drift lower – weather is still the #1 input into the markets and even though there were some heavy (too-heavy?) rains that hit parts of IA overnight – moisture is viewed as good for crops and bad for prices (today)...  Rain makes grain!

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans steady to down 2 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

We have mixed markets this morning as the trade patiently waits for the 11:00am USDA monthly S&D report.  Generally speaking there isn’t much else to talk about prior to that.  This report will be the first look at ending stocks for nextsummer.  When we are this far out (those crops are still being planted) that portion of the report should be taken lightly, although it will be traded.  The market is looking for very little change to old crop carryouts in corn and soybeans – maybe slight decreases are expected.  Forecasts for both commodities are at the bottom of these comments.

Before the rains last night (which looked a little lighter than expected, map below) planting progress is assumed to have made big strides – the U.S. could actually be close to its average by Monday’s planting progress report.  The Northern Plains (the Dakotas) have remained cool and wet throughout all of this and eventually this story will bubble to the surface in the form of “are there acres switching???”.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2 cents

Soybeans mixed, 2c lower to 2c higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

FC Morning Market Commentary

The export sales report was out at 7:30 this morning, prior to that corn was trading steadyish, after that… the market was down a nickel.  The trade was expecting the export sales report (which reflects sales made last week) to show somewhere between 500k and 800k MT of new sales and it came out at only 161k MT.  Soybeans on the other hand came out at 41k MT, which was within the range of guesses (the market was thinking it would be somewhere between a negative 100k and a positive 100k MT).  The fact it was a positive number (not a net cancellation) is friendly all by itself – reason: we shouldn’t be exporting additional old crop beans when beans are so tight that we need to import them from Brazil…  This friendly report could help this bean market correct itself a little bit after the selloff we have seen over the past few sessions.  It may take more than that though to turn these charts around in a big way.

Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their monthly S&D report, this will be the first official look at crop sizes and demand for next year (the 14/15 crop, the one that is getting planted as I type this). 

Weather… good moisture in the 5-day forecast with rains coming not only later today but potentially again early next week, the first map below shows total potential accumulation in the next 5 days.  The forecast looks drier from there forward, shown in the 6-10 day map below.

Opening Calls

Corn 4 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Grain Commentary

The markets are slightly weaker this morning – corn was able to trade steady/mixed early on last night while soybeans (esp. old crop) spent most of the night in the red.  The weather forecasts generally aren’t offering much for the bulls to go on – yes, there is a system coming through starting tomorrow but generally speaking the corn belt will get a 3-4 day break from precip which should allow planting to progress before another rain comes.  Also – these rains are welcomed with open arms for those with all/most of their corn in the ground. 

Planting in the corn belt this week has been progressing quickly to say the least.  Depending on how heavy the storms aretomorrow – we could easily see corn planting progress on Monday afternoon’s report somewhere between 50% and 60% complete (maybe even higher?).  The market has learned over time not to underestimate the ability of the American Farmer to get his crop in the ground…

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 3 cents lower

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents lower

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

The soybean market is lower this morning and looks like it could be in trouble technically (read: on the charts) after taking out last week’s lows during the overnight session.  This technical selling in soybean seems to be leading most of the markets lower. 

Corn is a few cents lower overnight, some of that due to the weakness in beans.  But also, with another 48 hours of warm, dry weather on the docket – the US farmer will be getting a big chunk of planting done between now and the (potentially heavy) thunderstorms coming later in the week.  Unfortunately, that rain is not timed well for everybody (it never is) -- planting delays in Minnesota (and northern Iowa) look to continue.  The 6-10 day precip map shown below looks like it could provide another window for field work to be done.  This slot (next week) will be the next window of time the market will focus on. 

Opening calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents lower

Soybeans 10 to 15 cents lower

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

The markets were higher overnight – led by wheat.  There were some hot temps in wheat country (KS, OK, TX) over the weekend.  It got up to 102 degrees in Wichita, from what I read this is not only a record high for that day in history – but for the whole month of May!  Not good for what is an already stressed wheat crop. 

The Ukraine situation is also helping wheat (and corn) trade higher.  As you may or may not know – in general the issuesover there have had little effect on actual grain exports.  The action has taken place in a different part of the country.  Well… now we are reading that armed Russian-speaking separatists have moved into the city of Odessa (an important export hub) but haven’t taken over the port (yet?).  The export program is winding down over there (it’s that time of year) but this is still something to watch and if they lose that port – grain prices could see a spike.  

Those two stories seem to be the main topics today, along with (of course) weather.  There are increasing chances of rain in the 7-day forecasts, with a system coming through Thursday, followed by another small one this weekend.  Of course, these come after a few days of warm/dry weather which could/should get a large portion of the corn belt back in the fields. 

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary 04.25.14

Good morning!

The corn and soybean markets were both higher last night – it appears that the weather forecasts have turned a little wetter which is expected to delay corn planting (hence higher prices).  Monday afternoon we will have another planting progress report which will likely show U.S. corn somewhere around 20% planted, which would be a little behind the average of 32% but nothing too concerning.  Well… with next week’s forecast now looking wetter, it will be hard to gain ground on planting progress that week.  This means the Monday after that could show us well behind the average which will start to approach 50%.

In other friendly news (friendly to prices) – tensions in the Black Sea are escalating once again, which is directly supporting wheat. 

It is a little too early to talk about (let’s get the crop in the ground first) but El Nino chances keep moving up and up (which bring cool, wet weather to the US Midwest).  The chart at the bottom of this email shows the probability for El Nino to show up this July/August/Sep – it looked only possible back in January but now it looks very likely.  If realized, this would likely push corn and soybean yield forecasts higher. (link)

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 7-10 cents higher (old crop), steady new crop

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary

Good morning!

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was pretty much as expected.  Corn sales were decent – right in the middle of the range of guesses.  Soybeans sales were near zero (but still a touch positive) which is actually right in the middle of the range of guesses.  New crop soybean sales were a little disappointing, which could cause new crop prices to lose a little ground to old crop today. Old crop soybean meal sales were big, which will offer support to beans.  Overall – not much to see here. 

Generally speaking corn and wheat are both trading weather, and they both view the weather forecasts as friendly.  Wheat is rallying thanks to dry weather in the plains while corn is rallying thanks to wet weather in the corn belt.  Long term, this moisture we have been getting will likely be viewed as bearish to corn prices (we need the rain) – but not until we know the crop is in the ground.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner 

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary 04.22.14

Good Morning! 

Overnight markets a little higher on thoughts that maybe yesterday’s down move was a bit overdone, although price rally potential may be capped by overall good spring weather for planting, and trade reports of additional Brazilian beans and Argentine sbmeal imports to the eastern half of the US. Today’s weather looks pretty good everywhere.  2 fronts to pass thru the Midwest this week, first one tomorrow then second over the weekend. Both carry pretty good chances of rain.  National corn planting progress was 6% yesterday, trade was expecting 10-12%.  Not concerning yet, as with good conditions nearly half the US corn crop can be sowed in  a week. Other news light this am, equities slightly higher and energies slightly lower.  Re-opening grain calls will be higher….corn up 3-4 and soybeans up 3-5.

Jon Setterdahl

FC Market Commentary Afternoon 4.21.14

Tough day in the markets to start the week.  Corn/beans/wheat all lower on generally good weather and the lack of escalation in Ukraine over the weekend.  Weekly export inspections out this am were huge on corn at 62.9 mln bu, slow on beans (as expected) at 5.1mln bu.  Weekly planting progress just out this afternoon shows corn 6% planted nationally.  Iowa was 2%.  Market was expecting a national number of 10-12%, so this may be a bit supportive to prices tonight.  Weather calls for good precip chances Wednesday and again over next weekend.

Jon Setterdahl

FC Coop

Ames, Iowa