FC Morning Grain Market Report for 9/9/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/09/14

Tuesday, September 9, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets are starting off weaker today – not a lot of news out there to give us direction other than diminishing chances for a severe frost (the weather models look the same as yesterday, maybe a touch warmer in spots).  The trade is also getting itself prepped for the USDA’s release of the September S&D which is due out Thursday morning.  Generally speaking this report doesn’t usually make big changes to crop size (they prefer the ‘wait and see’ mode it seems), however the trade still expects to see rising 14/15 carryout numbers in corn, soybeans and wheat.  They will however adjust old crop carryouts, currently the market bias is that we will get a slightly wider corn carryout and a slightly tighter bean carryout. 

In the outside markets, the $US is still pushing itself higher which feels like a heavy, bearish anchor on our commodity prices – limiting rally attempts.  Both Dec corn and Nov bean futures contracts seem primed to test recent lows and potentially test long term support below the market.

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents lower

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents lower

Have a great day!

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 9/8/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

PM Comments 9/8/2014

Monday, September 8, 2014, 3:09 PM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Rain is falling here in Central Iowa as we stare at another day or two of precip. and a two-week outlook of colder temperatures. During the overnight trade, corn, soybeans, and wheat all traded higher on fears of frost. All three commodities eventually turned lower as the market realized temps won’t get cold enough to damage/shrink physical crop size. Crop ratings were within market expectations this week, holding steady from last week for both corn and soybeans. Corn is rated at 74% G/E nationally and soybeans are 72% G/E nationally. In like manner, Iowa corn was steady vs. last week at 76% as were soybeans vs. last week at 73%. This is likely a neutral/negative input as we roll into to harvest with record production potential coming closer and closer to realization every day.

It’s been a wild ride for old crop bean basis – domestic supplies are extremely tight and bean crush margins remain lucrative. Gulf and interior basis levels are easing up, indicating basis may have already peaked. Additionally, some interior end-users already shut down or have indicated shutting down to wait for more beans to hit the market here in a few weeks.

Corn closed 7 cents lower

Soybeans closed 13 to 16 cents lower

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/8/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/08/14

Monday, September 8, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets are both lower this morning, as a reduced risk for frost is allowing the trade to remove weather premiums out of the market.  How the market closes today could hinge on the midday weather models – a colder outlook could inject a little life into the close but if they confirm reduced frost risk the markets will find additional selling pressure.

Other than that, not much else out there.  There is a bit of macro discussion going on regarding the $US (which is approaching its highest levels in 14 months).  Of course, a strong dollar adversely affects the competitiveness of the U.S. in the export corn/soybean markets which is not what we like to see as we prepare to handle what looks to be a record corn/soybean crop.

Opening Calls

Corn 5 to 7 cents lower

Soybeans 6 to 9 cents lower
http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2255

FC Morning Grain Report

The markets last night were a little higher – this looks like a nice little correction after yesterday’s severe drop.  If you looked at weather models this morning, even though the next 5 days look warm and dry - I suppose you could say overall the forecasts are a touch wetter than they were yesterday which would be friendly to prices. The next rain event looks to have just moved up a day or so (coming next Wednesday instead of next Thursday??).  Also in supportive news, Ukraine unrest seems to be on the front page again today, causing traders to put a little risk premium back in the market.  All of this together has helped the market stay positive so far today.

 

The soybean chart had some major damage done yesterday with the +50c drop in July futures prices.  If the market can hold here at these levels, and maybe recover some of those losses - that would be a good sign.  If not, there could be another leg down in this thing. 

 

Overall for today we expect the markets to be choppy with a decent chance we close higherahead of the weekend.  A lot can change in a weather forecast over 48 hours – for better or worse – and nobody wants to have too much risk on the table.  This market could get squirrelly just before the 1:15 close. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

 

Have a great day!