AM Comments 05/07/13
Tuesday, May 7, 2013, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
5-Day Precip Map:
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/7/2013
Tuesday, May 7, 2013, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Monday, May 6, 2013
FC Monday Morning Alert with Todd Claussen 5-6-2013
In this issue of FC's Monday Morning Alert, Todd discusses the progress and concerns of corn planted 8-9 days ago, and concerns to be aware of as we move forward with planting progress.
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/6/2013
AM Comments 05/06/13
Monday, May 6, 2013, 7:44 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
The corn market was sharply lower last night (down double
digits right on the open) thanks to bearish weather news. Some of the weekend
rains unexpectedly missed a few parts of the Eastern Corn Belt (allowing for
planting to continue) while the extended weather forecasts show more favorable
conditions over the next 14 days. This was a typical “weather weekend” for our
futures markets – where we take two days off from trading, have a change in the
forecasts and have a sharp move Monday morning.
This afternoon we will get to see the next planting progress
report from the USDA. Best guess is that corn is 15 to 20% planted and this
would NOT include any planting done yesterday in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.
FYI – those regions have a clear path to have corn planting potentially DONE by
mid-late week this week.
Opening Calls
Corn down 15 to 20 cents
Soybeans down 5 to 7 cents
Friday, May 3, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/3/2013
AM Comments 05/03/13
Friday, May 3, 2013, 8:18 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
It was a quiet trade overnight last night with corn and
soybeans both trading in narrow ranges – but inching a bit higher. So far the
weather forecasts don’t look a whole lot different than yesterday. It will stay
wet over the weekend with warmer/drier air moving in next week which should
cause net drying. Once of the reasons for the rally in corn yesterday is that
there is a system penciled in for late next week that is expected to bring
anywhere from a couple tenths to an inch of rain. The market will watch that
one closely, the areas that miss it could have a nice planting window open up.
Monday afternoon the USDA will grace us with another planting
progress report. Expectations are fairly widespread with some in the trade
thinking it will show corn as 12-15% planted while others think it could be
closer to 20% planted. Either way we will be behind pace, knowing full well
that we can catch up fast.
The outside markets could be a friendly input today. The
U.S. unemployment numbers came out, dropping unemployment to 7.5% which should
cause the equity markets to bounce higher.
The funds were in buying corn yesterday, we will need to see
them doing more of the same today or our market could give back some of these
recent gains…
Opening Calls
Corn steady to 2 cents higher
Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher
Thursday, May 2, 2013
FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 5/2/2013
Afternoon Comments 5/2/2013
Thursday, May 2, 2013, 3:31 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Markets settled mixed the afternoon with corn 15 cents higher
while beans closed 1 cent lower. Old crop corn led the way higher as planting
delays continue and forecasts showing little relief nearby. Logic would tell you
planting delays would benefit new crop prices more than old crop but not the
case. Why are planting delays benefiting old crop prices? A few weeks ago we
were looking at our carryout of 757 needing to last until harvest and as harvest
gets pushed back our carryout has to last that much longer. Last year tight
ending stocks for corn were bailed out by an early harvest, this year that is
looking far less possible as planting continues to see delays and weather
forecasts calling for very tight planting windows. Once Brazil loads all the
backlogged vessels waiting off their ports it is possible the Southeastern US
could import cheaper corn from South America providing relief to a later
harvest.
Soybeans struggled to remain around unchanged as corn acres
are thought to be switching to soybeans. The majority of the corn acres that
would be lost come from the northern corn belt but some could come from the
Delta where below freezing temperatures have damaged the already emerged corn
crop. Basis and futures could see some pressure as Brazil exported 7 mln MT of
soybeans in the month of April which surpasses the old record by a comfortable
margin. With the record crop finally hitting the market export demand for
soybeans and meal out of the US should come to a halt.
If you are tired of waiting to plant this may be an
option.
FC Morning Market Commentary for May 2, 2013
Good morning!
Our markets were higher overnight, the 11-15 day
forecast is showing a little more moisture meaning the potential
planting window late next week could be a little shorter than thought.
It is safe to say
that these extended weather forecasts
are difficult to trade off of. Wet one day, dry the next. This force
feeds volatility into our market and won’t end anytime soon. Planting
weather -> pollination weather -> August “soybean make-or-break”
weather -> harvest weather – it isn’t going to stop
anytime soon. Step 1… get the crop in the ground.
 |
| May 2, 2013. Western, IA raingage |
The USDA released their export sales report this
morning and it is a friendly input. Wheat sales were good, corn sale
were also good – coming in above the trade guesses. Soybeans showed net
cancellations (negative sales) for old crop
which by itself would be bearish BUT the new crop sales numbers were
big, making the report an overall bullish input.
Outside markets… also friendly this morning as
crude oil is putting in a small recovery. The big talk around the trade
today will no doubt be all of the snow that has fallen across the
Western Corn Belt.
Opening Calls
Corn 7-9 cents higher
Soybeans 5-6 cents higher
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/1/2013
AM Comments 05/01/13
Wednesday, May 1, 2013, 8:16 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
Our markets were under pressure last night and are still
weaker this morning. The drop in futures prices is being blamed on hedge
pressure (farmer selling) and long liquidation (funds/specs selling).
The extended weather outlook may not be quite as wet as
forecasted yesterday which helps explain the sell-off in corn. Although… it is
the 1st of May and they are calling for 1-3” of snow for parts of
Iowa (mainly North and NW). This could eventually add support but the fact that
the system stalled over the Western Corn Belt means folks in the East should get
an extra day of planting.
For soybeans – China’s PMI came in lower than last month and
below expectations, indicating their economy is growing at a slower rate than
thought. China’s economy is of the utmost importance to soybean demand
projections. The world needs a strong Chinese economy for raw material prices
to rise.
Overall it could be a light volume day today as Europe, China
and other countries are out due to the May Day holiday. This could help explain
the violent moves we have seen in the night session.
Opening Calls
Corn down 7 to 10 cents
Soybeans down 15 to 25 cents
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