FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/27/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/27/14

Monday, October 27, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It was a good harvest weather weekend across the Corn Belt and the weather forecasts for the week look mostly dry which should accelerate harvest as many farmers wrap up soybeans and switch turn their full attention to corn. The weekly harvest progress report will be out this afternoon, soybeans are expected to come in at over 70% harvested while corn should be over 40% harvested. 

 

A news story this morning that could end up being bearish to corn and soybean prices is the reelection of the Brazilian President. This is expected to weaken the Brazilian currency (the Real) which would not only make Brazilian exports more competitive but it also likely to cause an increase in farmer selling in that part of the world.

 

Overall expect weaker markets for today and while the markets don’t appear poised to test contract lows anytime soon – an active harvest and negative fundamentals should keep things under pressure today and potentially throughout the rest of the week.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2312

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/22/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/22/14

Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The soybean market popped higher again last night on the general slow start to harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt which is rallying spreads and basis for both soybean meal and soybeans as the soybean pipeline isn’t quite full yet.  The funds also appeared to be active last night with another round of aggressive buying on what looked to be high volume (overnight volume in both Dec corn and Nov beans is estimated to be around 30,000 contracts).  Farming selling of soybeans has been strong in both the US and Brazil/Argentina as most farmers are able to sift through the static and realize that these rallies are great selling opportunities in what still looks to be a great U.S. crop and overall increasing world stocks of grains/oilseeds.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2307

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/15/2014

AM Comments 05/15/14

Thursday, May 15, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

At 7:30am today the weekly export sales report was released and it showed net positive soybean sales once again!  Granted, it was only 2.7 million bushels – but like an addict, we just won’t stop.  This of course is supportive to old crop beans and the main thing keeping a lid on the market is the fact that at the same time we are exporting beans (know & reported quantity) we are also importing beans from Brazil (unknown quantity).  The battle between imports/exports, US crush margins / Chinese crush margins, and general logistics to get everything in the right place will likely rage on until the end of the summer when either a) we import enough beans and the price drops or b) the US processor closes the doors (temporarily) and the price drops.  Either way, this old crop bean market will have a bumpy end to it this summer as the $3 difference in price between old crop and new crop slams together.

 

Export sales on corn were neutral – coming out within the range but on the top end.  So not bearish, but not bullish either.  Overall corn does feel a little weak lately as the weather forecasts have allowed (or are projected to) for planting to proceed well. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans 2 to 5 cents higher

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2121

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/30/2014

AM Comments 04/30/14

Wednesday, April 30, 2014, 8:13 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean markets were lower last night on little news.  The 6-10 day weather forecast is starting to show above normal temperatures for the Midwest (mainly the southern belt) which could help get the U.S. Midwest back on the path to planting.  The soybean market is feeling a little pressure thanks to fresh rumors of additional Brazilian beans heading to the U.S.  I have said this before – these imports are needed and should be expected, but the bears in the market will still use this as a reason to sell.

 

The outside markets are lower with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 106 @ 100.22) along with a lower US Dollar (138.68 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is slightly lower (DN 9).

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 6 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2096

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/29/2014

AM Comments 04/29/14

Tuesday, April 29, 2014, 8:27 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets are slightly higher this morning, with corn firming once again on the cooler/wetter weather forecasts.  The weekly planting progress report that was released yesterday also helped support corn – the market was expecting 20-25% planted on corn and the USDA says c corn in 19% planted vs. 28% average.  IA, IN and OH are all 18 points behind their respective 5-year averages.  The average for next Monday’s report?  47%. 

 

Other than that, pretty quiet.  The soybean market seems to ebb and flow right along with Chinese crush margins (which are improving a bit as meal demand perks up).  If China is truly starting to turn their margins around, it could be tougher for the US to nab some of those Brazilian ships of beans that not long ago had nowhere to go. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans steady to 2 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2094

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/28/2014

AM Comments 04/28/14

Monday, April 28, 2014, 7:58 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The soybean market found support last night and bounced sharply higher – pushing May & July futures prices back up above $15.  I almost don’t want to type this, but the rumor is that on the recent pull-back in soybean prices China started nosing around trying to buy additional Brazilian beans (the story last week was that they could cancel out of those purchases fast enough).  So who knows, overall though with a bean carryout that is this tight – we will see more than our fair share of volatility. 

 

The corn market is also a touch higher so far this morning – while the rain that fell over the weekend is beneficial to some, it is currently being viewed as a threat to planting progress.  The weekly planting progress report will be out later this afternoon with the market expecting us to be slightly behind “normal”.  The cool wet weather this week won’t help us catch up, and the extreme cold weather in some of the northern wheat country will not be much help to that crop’s condition ratings.

 

The outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 40 @ 101.00) along with a lower US Dollar (138.57 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 60).

 

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 15 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2092

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/26/2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 3:09 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

News was sparse today with corn trading slightly lower and beans closing higher. Weekly ethanol production added some pressure to corn, slipping .67% vs. last week as rail logistic issues continue to keep a cap on what ethanol producers can ship. Ethanol stocks vs. last week were up 2.46%. Eastern Europe is still volatile, but corn and wheat vessels out of the Black Sea are still loading on schedule. Weakness in wheat (due to needed rains in Oklahoma and Texas) also found its way into the corn market.

Beans traded mixed, but was able to close 12 cents higher. Rumors of Chinese cancellations failing to materialize continues to add support. Stronger meal prices and a decent amount of fund buying were also supportive to beans today. Harvest in Brazil is over 2/3 complete and Argentine producers are discovering better-than-expected yields as they begin harvest.

Corn closed down 2 cents at $4.845

Beans closed up 12 cents at $14.40

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2058

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/12/2014

AM Comments 3/12/2014

Wednesday, March 12, 2014, 8:29 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

The markets are under some pressure this morning with nearby soybeans down 39 cents. Rumor is China has cancelled some soybean cargos from Brazil, changed some US Gulf vessels last night, and are seeking to exit other purchases. Additional pressure from fund liquidation pushed the price below last week’s low.

Corn was also lower this morning by 4 cents, but the trade is still uneasy about the Ukraine situation. The Ukrainian parliament has voted to keep the country together even if the people of Crimea vote to leave Ukraine. The uncertainty has the market a little worried about what this means for exports.

Opening calls:

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Beans down 30 to 40 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2050

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/10/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/10/2014

Monday, March 10, 2014, 3:30 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Pressure from the March S&D report weighed on the market today with corn down a dime and beans down 40 cents. USDA’s March Supply & Demand report didn’t have any sizable differences from February. Corn ending stock estimates dropped by 25 million bushels (from increased exports) but carryout remains above 1.4 bln bushels. South American corn production estimates stayed even with last month, which was a bit surprising with recent weather issues in Brazil.

 

The soybean carryout estimate was stronger than the trade expected, only dropping by 5 mln bu. to 145 mln bu.

·         Imports increased by 5 mln bu.

·         Export increased 20 mln. bu.

·         Domestic crush decreased by 10 mln. bu.

World production estimates dropped by 2.37 MMT; 1.5 MMT of that reduction was from Brazil due to the recent weather issues. While this may feel supportive, rumors of Chinese cancellations put some heavy pressure on the market. We have returned to pricing levels traded one week ago.

 

Corn closed down 10 cents at $4.78

Beans closed down 39 cents at $14.18

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2047

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

AM Comments 03/04/14

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The grain markets had a weaker tone to them last night as news out of Russia calmed a few fears.  Russian President Putin pulled back some of his troops in SW Russia and investors feel that Russia is now backing down from the potentially large-scale military confrontation.  Putin himself said that Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula will not escalate into war: "We will not go to war with the Ukrainian people. If we do take military action, it will only be for the protection of the Ukrainian people”.  This is a fluid situation and will be watched closely.

 

So… today appears to be acting in direct opposite of yesterday’s trade – gold & crude are lower while the equity markets are all higher.  Some of the ‘risk premium’ that was added yesterday is being swiftly removed from the market.

 

Spring is inching closer… today is Fat Tuesday, the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers should see continued melting as temps warm up later this week, and Brazilian soybean harvest should be half done by the weekend. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans steady to up 3 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2039

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/28/2014

Morning Comments 2/28/2014

Friday, February 28, 2014, 8:21 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good morning!

 

The markets are a touch firmer this morning, taking a breath after yesterday’s volatility. It looks like today will be quieter. Chinese futures were lower last night on thoughts of lowered feed demand and Brazilian harvest is nearing 40% complete this weekend. Yesterday’s bean market dip may have happened due to rumors of Chinese bean cancellations, but nothing official has been announced. Fundamentally, the soybean picture hasn’t changed much. Sales of old crop corn and new crop beans were announced this morning, which may give the market some support.

 

It appears the Midwest will be getting more winter weather this weekend. Hopefully the old saying holds true: “In like a lion, out like a lamb.”

 

Opening calls:

Corn up 1 to 2 cents

Soybeans up 5 to 8 cents

 

Today is the First Notice Day for March futures deliveries: soyoil at 3,742 contracts, soybeans at 17 contracts, and corn at 4 contracts.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2035

 

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for February 26, 2014

Good morning!

Nearby soybean futures are bumping up against resistance on the chart at $14.00, which was yesterday’s high.  The high overnight on March beans was $13.9950.  Chinese futures were a mixed input… Dalian soybeans closed lower, but dryer weather in SE Asia rallied palm oil prices, which is supporting soybean oil – and may end up supporting our CBOT soybeans before the day is over. 

There is a general lack of new news pushing our markets today. There are stories leaking out about production losses in South America as Parana (a state in Brazil, Brazil’s second largest bean producing state) lowered their production estimates by 2 MMT.  Blame hot dry weather in Jan/Feb for that. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 4 to 6 cents

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

Dustin Weiner

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 2/18/2014

Afternoon Comments 2/18/2014

Tuesday, February 18, 2014, 3:46 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Soybeans found strength today closing nearly 25 cents higher. Export inspections this morning fell within trade estimates but were on the high side of expectations. March meal reached contract highs and news of stress on late planted soybeans in Brazil helped March beans close above $13.60. The dry Brazilian weather is helping with bean harvest as most estimate bean harvest at 25% complete.

 

Corn also received support from news of dry Brazilian weather. More rainfall is needed for Brazil's 2nd corn crop; corn from the 2nd Brazilian crop typically competes with U.S. corn for export sales. Old crop also got a bump from higher-than-expected export inspections (32.6 mln vs. 21-27 mln expected). Increased producer selling may be keeping a cap on upward moves.

 

Corn up 4.25 cents

Beans up 23.5 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2023

 

More winter weather in the forecast for Thursday:

 

Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/5/2014

Morning Comments 2/5/2014

Wednesday, February 5, 2014, 8:30 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

 

Some momentum from yesterday carried through into the overnight as beans rallied on strong export demand. The rally was cut short with the potential of profitable bean and meal imports from S.A. into the U.S. Harvest yields in Brazil and early yields in Argentina look very strong – as expected. The USDA Feb WASDE report is due this coming Monday; it will be interesting to see what the USDA estimates for exports vs. January with current export sales higher than USDA estimates. Beans closed 2.25 cents lower overnight.

 

The Dollar and Dow were both lower overnight, which is supportive to commodities, but corn had a large amount of farmer selling yesterday which seemed to cap any upward movements. Corn closed 1.75 cents lower overnight.

 

Have a good day!

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2008

 

FC Market Morning Commentary for January 31, 2014

Good morning! 

The outside markets seem to be the first thing people are talking about this morning.  Currency markets around the world are weakening, which is stinging world equities while the $US rallies as investors flock to it (thanks in part to QE3 starting to slow).  Long story short - equities are lower (the Dow futures are down another 150+ points).  Not a good end to the week/month in the stock market, this would be the first monthly decline in the U.S. stock market since August.

 

China is closed today - their Lunar New Year beings today and will run through February 6^th.  This means the market will have near-zero participation from them while they celebrate their new year.  That doesn’t mean the market won’t be thinking about them as they hold the cards to the soybean demand out of both the U.S. and South America.  There has been a lot of chatter about three cargoes of beans that have already been loaded (and sailed) out of Brazilian ports this week.  If you remember, SA bean harvest was later than normal last year which helped US exports remain strong longer.  This year doesn’t appear to be the same…

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans mixed

 

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

 

 

 

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FC Morning Market Commentary January 29 2014

Good morning!

The futures markets were lower in both corn and soybeans last night with soybeans leading the charge down thanks to continued rains in Argentina showing up in both the 6-10 and 11-15 day outlooks.  Southern Brazil also look great, while some spots in the northern and central regions look a little drier.  The weather in the US is really hammering logistics – there are barges on the Illinois River that will take around 30 days to get to New Orleans thanks to cold, icy conditions.  Also – the Port of New Orleans is closed today because of poor road conditions due to ice & snow.  This is mainly affecting the soybean export program and we may start to see the exports shipments reports (which is released every Monday) start to back off a bit. 

Tomorrow morning the USDA will release its weekly export sales report and once again – traders are expecting to see soybean cancellations from China.  If they show up it will be “as expected”, if not – we could see a little pop higher.

Opening calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 4 to 7 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner 

@fccoopgrain

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FC Morning Market Commentary for January 23, 2014

Good morning!

Both corn and soybeans were higher last night on very little news.  The $US is sharply lower which is helping not only our corn and soybean markets find strength – but gold is also rallying (while equities are weaker).  China’s PMI strong indicator of overall Chinese economic strength) for January slipped down below 50 – which suggests contraction in their economy rather than the growth that the market has been used to.  This is the lowest reading in 6 months and no doubt has some people nervous regarding not just China’s, but the overall world economy. 

The soybean futures market has taken a big hit lately due to rumors about vessels destined for China being switched away from the US towards Brazil.  While those rumors have not yet been officially confirmed, soybean basis at the U.S. gulf has dropped sharply which gives a little credibility to the idea that sales are being cancelled. 

The corn market is hovering right around it’s 10 and 25-day moving averages.  Steady demand and slow farmer selling should keep this market from falling out of bed (for now).  This cold weather is not helping the cash market as ice problems delay river traffic and the farmer stays inside his house/shop.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

Dustin Weiner

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 12/10/2013

AM Comments 12/10/13

Tuesday, December 10, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The USDA will release their December S&D report at 11am today – the market looks like it will stay relatively quiet up until then.  The trade is expecting demand increases for both corn and soybeans, lower the projected carryouts of each.  Typically this report doesn’t have much fireworks to it as they tend to wait until January when the final U.S. production numbers are released.

 

Weather in South America still looks good, the forecast almost couldn’t be any better in the short term.  Brazil’s government is now forecasting a record soybean production, 90.3MMT, which is 2.3MMT higher than the estimate the USDA gave us in November.  If this crop holds in there, it will likely be a pretty heavy anchor on bean prices come Feb/March forward, if not sooner. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans mixed, up 1c to down 1c

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1940

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/15/2013

AM Comments 10/15/13

Tuesday, October 15, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Yesterday the majority of the market was faced with a limited, thin trade with banks and other businesses closed for Columbus Day (not to mention the gov’t is still closed, today is day 15 of the shutdown).  We did not receive our normal harvest progress info yesterday afternoon but we read a Reuter’s poll this morning that shows U.S. soybean harvest at 45% complete (this same poll showed 22% completion a week ago).  They estimated corn harvest to be 31% done (it was 20% last week, according to this poll).

 

There were some strong rains that fell across the Western Corn Belt yesterday, putting a stop to harvest in those areas.  This same system is creeping into the Eastern Corn Belt today but it looks to be more spotty.  Cold temps are coming right behind this storm with the potential for scattered frost in the Dakotas and Minnesota tonight.  The big risk for frost comes after the second cold front hits later this week – producing widespread frost threats for the weekend.  The good news for harvest progress (potentially bearish news for prices) is that the next major rain system doesn’t look to show up until Oct 27^th – 28^th with only light showers showing up in between now and then.

 

Quickly on South American weather… they have received some much needed rains over the past 4 or 5 days in Argentina.  This should help increase their planting pace (farmers down there were waiting for rain as their soils were too dry).  Even with that though, additional moisture will be needed (and currently isn’t forecasted).  Brazil has had much better luck as they have had timely rains and near ideal planting conditions.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to up 1c

Soybeans 3 to 5 cents lower

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1882

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/20/2013

AM Comments 09/20/13

Friday, September 20, 2013, 8:14 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets were on the defensive last night as traders continue to take profits in their bean/corn positions by selling beans and buying grains.  If you look at soybeans on a chart, they appear to be in a well-defined downward trend or channel.  Nov beans broke through major support last night and the next level of support could come from the psychological number of $13.00 on the Nov contract (which is 25-30 cents lower than we are now).

 

The weather forecasts are showing us a quiet weekend after this current front moves through.  Next week’s weather also looks to be a non-event and with no cold air threats out there – the threat of an early frost continues to slip away.

 

Traders are also watching South American planting weather as their soybean crop is going to be very important over the next 6 months.  Argentina’s outlook looks benign for the next 10 days or so.  Brazil looks to get rains this weekend before turning dry next week.  Parts of Brazil have been especially dry so these rains should be viewed as beneficial.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1853