FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 8/12/2013

PM Comments 08/12/13

Monday, August 12, 2013, 3:16 pm
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good afternoon!

 

The USDA’s August S&D report was out this morning, and was a bit surprising to the market.  Starting with corn… the harvested acres did not change, but the projected corn yield dropped 2.1bpa down to 154.4.  There were many private companies who were actually projecting an increase in corn yield – thanks to the great conditions in the eastern corn belt and the decent conditions in the West.  This dropped production by 187 million bushels (when compared to last month’s numbers).  It is important to note that if this comes true, this would still be a record large U.S. corn harvest.  The current ending stocks projections for next year went down of course, but are still at 1.837 billion bushels – the largest in 8 years.  For reference, our carryout projection for this summer is only 719 million bushels.  In the grand scheme of things, the numbers we saw today aren’t necessarily friendly overall, but for today – it pushed corn a little higher as production was slightly less than expected.

 

As for soybeans… as planned, they resurveyed soybean planted acres and dropped the total acres planted and harvested by 500,000 acres.  They also dropped projected yield by 1.9bpa, down to 42.6.  This lowered production by 165 million bushels (when compared to last month’s numbers).  None of this was overly surprising but it confirms a fear that the market has had for a short while now – that the soybean crop size potential may be slipping.  Ending stocks projections for next year fell 75 million bushels (when compared to last month’s number) down to 220mb.  For reference, our carryout for this summer is 125mb, so even though it is a little tight next year – it is definitely manageable. 

 

The USDA’s weekly crop conditions report was out this afternoon at 3pm.  US corn G/E ratings were unchanged and soybeans G/E ratings were also unchanged – both at 64% good-to-excellent.  This was as expected.  Below are graphs showing how we track versus previous years – both in respect to the U.S. and to the state of Iowa. 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1807

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/12/2013

AM Comments 08/12/13

Monday, August 12, 2013, 7:48 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The USDA’s monthly S&D report is out at 11am this morning.  Soybean futures traded higher overnight – traders look like they are expecting lower soybean acres and yield in this report and are positioning themselves that way. 

Trade estimates of the 11am S&D report:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There were beneficial rains that fell across the NW corn belt this weekend – the driest areas of the western belt are improving but the forecast over the next 6-10 days is dry with temps staying cool this week, but warming up a bit starting early next week.

 

Later this afternoon we will see our updated weekly crop ratings – most traders are expecting U.S. good-to-excellent ratings to hold steady or maybe dropping 1%.  Overall it should be a non-event. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady/mixed

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1806

 

Carnival Safety Tips in Time For State Fair Season

Carnival Safety Tips in Time For State Fair Season

The following tips for going to the fair was originally posted last month (July 2013) in Pennsylvania, although the safety tips are relevant for any fair.

Throughout Pennsylvania, various county fairs are drawing citizens from across the state to ride rides, view livestock, and eat fried food that most doctors would advise against. Fairs can be a fun way to while away the summer with family

before the inevitable start to the school year.

But lurking amid this carnival atmosphere are circumstances which could contribute to safety hazards. It only takes one simple mistake on a fast-moving carnival ride for tragedy to strike, and it’s imperative that visitors do their part to ensure safety.

The Carlisle wrongful death lawyers of Handler Henning & Rosenberg want to make sure visits to county fairs this summer don’t turn tragic. In his position as an attorney, W. Scott Henning has seen far too many simple mistakes with long-lasting repercussions, and he wants to help citizens everywhere stay safe however possible.

“Most people are of the mind that the biggest threat to health that exists at a county fair is food that has the term ‘Deep Fried’ placed in front of it,” said Mr. Henning. “But bodily harm is a distinct possibility in numerous situations presented by amusement park environments. We hope that families can have fun this summer without putting themselves in danger.”

Those citizens that are planning to travel to a county [or State] fair in the next couple of weeks are being provided with some handy tips to put into action.

Safety-conscious citizens will research a fair’s history as well as that of the owner and operator of the various attractions. The internet offers unprecedented access to information, and a little digging can go a long way.

•Parking Parking situations at some fairs could be considered ramshackle at best. Park where directed, but make sure to limit speed and scan the entire environment while entering and exiting a space. Hundreds of families have descended upon a largely unfamiliar environment, and full attention is necessary to avoid striking a pedestrian.

• Safe Eating That corn-dog might certainly be dangerous to cholesterol levels, but consumers should really be looking out for circumstances which could contribute to a Salmonella contamination. Bring hand sanitizer along when visiting fair food stands, and if it looks like cleanliness is not a priority at a given eatery, go elsewhere.

• Walking Fairs are filled with obstacles on the ground that can easily be overlooked, especially by overeager children who just want to get to the next ride. Watch out for splayed extension cords, buffers, trashcans, and even oblivious persons that could pose a fall hazard.

• Child Attentiveness It’s the parent who knows a child best, including what he or she can tolerate in terms of thrills. Parents should monitor a child’s behavior to determine if a certain ride is appropriate. If a child appears nervous when approaching a thrill ride, consider skipping that attraction. Otherwise, the child might panic onboard and do something that could compromise safety.

• Riding Parents should go with children, making sure that lap bars are secured and that kids aren’t tempted to hop off of a ride vehicle while in motion.

• Operators Ride operators are supposed to be trained to safely work a ride, but mistakes can be made. Suspicions that a safety concern has gone overlooked should be voiced. One example would be if a parent notices a ride operator letting children far smaller than what the height limit suggests board the ride. People should trust their instincts, pipe up where necessary, and exit if they feel unsafe in any way.

These tips can hopefully help parents enjoy the fair without fear of a serious personal injury.

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/9/2013

AM Comments 08/09/13

Friday, August 9, 2013, 8:16 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Soybeans continued to rally last night thanks to… improving meal basis, strong new crop sales and probably some short covering (ahead of Monday’s report).  Corn on the other hand just can’t quite put together a rally.  With so much chatter about record or near record corn production – it is simply difficult for anyone to convince themselves to go long at these prices. 

 

I haven’t talked about weather for a couple mornings now and that is because it isn’t changing – still non-threatening to crop development.  There are rains falling across the southern belt this morning and there are small rains in the forecast for parts of Iowa late this weekend – chances are low, so I will believe it when I see it. (5 day precip forecast map to the right)

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2 cents lower

Soybeans 7 to 9 cents higher

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1805

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/8/2013

AM Comments 08/08/13

Thursday, August 8, 2013, 8:20 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean markets pushed higher last night – somewhat led by soybeans and China.  Data released shows China soybean imports for July at a record large 7.2MMT which is supportive to the soy complex. 

 

The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am – we had strong soybean sales (mostly new crop) and poor corn sales.  The poor new crop corn sales aren’t overly surprising because at these current price levels, new crop U.S. corn is still over-priced when compared to the rest of the world.  This fact alone could keep a lid on rallies in Dec corn for a while. 

 

However when glancing at a chart, it does start to feel like corn and soybeans are trying to form some sort of a short term bottom.  It will be important to some of the technical traders to see corn and beans hold these gains from last night all the way into the close today.  With the USDA report coming Monday – this could easily happen as we start to see short-covering as traders even up positions.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 9 to 12 cents higher

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1803

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 8/7/2013

Afternoon Comments 8/7/2013

Wednesday, August 7, 2013, 3:17 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

If you look back through your comments over the past 12 or so trading sessions you will see a common theme..markets lower and non-threatening weather. Well today is nothing new so I won’t bore you with the same story that has been told the past several weeks. However, the bearish tone of cooler temperatures may start to turn bullish if the trend continues. Talks have started to shift over to a late planted crop with development weeks behind normal being very susceptible to an early frost/freeze. If the below normal temperature trend persists could we see an early frost? Only time will tell.

 

Ethanol data this week was neutral although production did pick up 2.5% from last week. Corn used this week for ethanol production was 89.6 mln bu vs 103.1 mln needed to reach the USDA projection. At this point it is unlikely the USDA projection will be reached considering many ethanol plants are scheduled for maintenance down time the next two months. China approved the importation on GMO from Argentina today which will add a little pressure to US markets where corn is currently 50-75 cents higher priced than South America and the Black sea region.

 

August weather outlook continues to look favorable for soybean development providing the continued bearish tone. Similar to corn the market will watch for any indication of an early frost which could be more detrimental to soybeans where a significant portion didn’t get planted until late June/early July. USDA announced yet another new crop soybean purchase from China of 220k MTs.

 

Outside markets were mixed with the dollar and equities trading lower on uncertainty of when/if the fed will begin to reduce the QE3 bond buyback program. Crude traded weaker today while metals mostly higher.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1802

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/7/2013

AM Comments 08/07/13

Wednesday, August 7, 2013, 8:05 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Nothing exciting happened in the overnight trade last night, it looks like there was an attempt to bounce the market higher off of recent losses.  It will likely take more than a small technical bounce to turn these charts around as both Dec corn and Nov beans hover near their lows. 

 

With the weather forecasts and current crop conditions clearly not supporting an upside move – maybe a USDA report will give a gift to the bulls?  Tomorrow morning is the weekly export sales report and Monday morning is the monthly S&D report, you never know... 

 

Here are the current average trade estimates for Monday’s report:

·         Corn Production

o   13.980 billion bushels using a yield of 157.7 bpa

·         Soybean Production

o   3.338 billion bushels using a yield of 43.5 bpa

·         Corn Carryout

o   12/13: 725 million bushels (it was 729mb in July)

o   13/14: 1.971 billion bushels (it was 1.959bb in July)

·         Soybean Carryout

o   12/13: 122 million bushels (it was 125mb in July)

o   13/14: 263 million bushels (it was 295mb in July)

 

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to 2 cents higher

Soybeans steady to 3 cents higher

 

Past 24 Hour Rainfall Map:

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1801