FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/13/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/13/14

Thursday, November 13, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

After a big day yesterday that featured big market swings with prices rallying to new highs in both corn and soybeans followed by a weaker close in soybeans. Also of note corn futures are said to have traded a record daily volume yesterday with over 663 thousand contracts of corn trading hands yesterday!  This high volume implies that there has been big speculative buying taking place. 

 

The soy complex sell off can be attributed to rumors that multiple cargoes of South American soybean meal were booked to ship into the East Coast of the U.S.  That, along with good farmer selling pressured prices.

 

Overnight the markets were mixed but are trading firmer this morning on good volume which again is likely due to new spec/fund buying.  I’d expect another choppy day with both markets potentially trading both sides of yesterday’s close at some point through the day.  However, if the funds are going to stand in here and buy – dips may be short term…

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2333

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/2/2014

AM Comments 04/02/14

Wednesday, April 2, 2014, 8:16 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

May soybean futures made new highs last night, falling just shy of $15.00 on the board.  Corn and wheat prices didn’t fare as well with corn down around a nickel and wheat down around a dime.  The soy complex rallied yesterday and last night on news that the Senate is trying to bring back the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit.  The House is of course on the other side of it – their bill aims to keep the credit as-is (expired). 

Basis values were weaker at the U.S. gulf yesterday in both corn and soybeans due in part to heavy farmer selling (thanks to the futures rally) and cheaper barge freight.  Also affecting bean basis is the continued talk of soybean imports from South America.  Imports into this US aren’t surprising, they are in fact needed.  The Eastern U.S. can and will import a good amount of soybeans (they did so last year), but if you look at the image to the right, you will see a loaded soybean vessel headed to NOLA of all places.  High prices cure high prices…

 

Outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 52 @ 99.22) along with a lower US Dollar (137.82 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 19).  The much anticipated U.S. Jobs report will be released Friday. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/24/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/24/2014

Monday, March 24, 2014, 2:46 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

Grains traded higher today with corn, soybeans, and wheat all making double-digit gains. Corn was supported by some fund buying and a solid export inspections number - 45 mln bushels vs. 35 mln needed to meet USDA projections. One week from today, the USDA will release the Quarterly Stocks report and Planting Intentions. Quarterly stocks are expected to be near 7.1 bln bushels; estimates for corn acres are around 93.0 mln acres. Look for corn to be range-bound between $4.80 and $4.90 through this week as the trade prepares for the March 31^st report.

Soybeans gained 16 cents in the nearby with support coming from an anticipated bullish stocks report. Export inspections were also friendly. Chinese crushers are still deciding not to default on purchases, but are working to roll S.A. purchases forward or into the U.S. March 31^st stocks estimates for soybeans are around 980 mln bu. and acres are about 81.0 mln acres.

Corn closed up 11 cents at $4.90

Beans Closed up 16 cents at $14.25

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2055

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/10/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/10/2014

Monday, March 10, 2014, 3:30 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Pressure from the March S&D report weighed on the market today with corn down a dime and beans down 40 cents. USDA’s March Supply & Demand report didn’t have any sizable differences from February. Corn ending stock estimates dropped by 25 million bushels (from increased exports) but carryout remains above 1.4 bln bushels. South American corn production estimates stayed even with last month, which was a bit surprising with recent weather issues in Brazil.

 

The soybean carryout estimate was stronger than the trade expected, only dropping by 5 mln bu. to 145 mln bu.

·         Imports increased by 5 mln bu.

·         Export increased 20 mln. bu.

·         Domestic crush decreased by 10 mln. bu.

World production estimates dropped by 2.37 MMT; 1.5 MMT of that reduction was from Brazil due to the recent weather issues. While this may feel supportive, rumors of Chinese cancellations put some heavy pressure on the market. We have returned to pricing levels traded one week ago.

 

Corn closed down 10 cents at $4.78

Beans closed down 39 cents at $14.18

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2047

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/4/2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 4:38 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn closed 13 cents higher today, adding 20 cents the last two trading sessions. The Ukrainian situation is still volatile, but Russian troops have pulled back from the border easing some pressure. Ukrainian grain exports have not yet been affected but the trade is still concerned over the situation. Informa decreased production estimates in S.A. by 1 MMT which provided additional support. Funds were net buyers on the day. Any strong upward moves in corn may be limited by strong carryout estimates.

 

Spillover support from the corn market helped prop up soybeans today with May beans closing 13 cents higher. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as crushers remain profitable. Informa decreased S.A. soybean production by 1.6 MMT. We see demand for beans remaining strong (China, domestic use) while the world supply is slightly lower (S.A. declines); the fundamentals remain favorable to beans. This can change with Chinese cancellations, but we haven't seen any significant cancellations yet.

 

Corn closed higher at $4.84 for May

Beans closed higher at $14.23 for May

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2040

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/3/2014

Monday, March 3, 2014, 3:59 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn opened higher this morning finding support from the political unrest in Ukraine. Ukraine is estimated to be the 3^rd largest exporter of corn this year at 18.5 mmt. With 6 mmt left to export, the trade is concerned about a potential slowdown in shipments. Funds were strong buyers of commodities today as the stock market drops from the concerns in Eastern Europe. Export inspections were also supportive to corn today. Gains from this morning slowly dwindled into the afternoon, but nearby corn closed 6 cents higher at $4.64.

 

Soybeans traded mixed today with old crop closing 7 cents lower and new crop closing 2 cents higher – potentially an effect from bull spread unwinding. While Chinese crush margins are at a 2-year low, we have yet to see any significant cancellations materialize. Domestic crushers remain profitable amid recent price increases. Weather looks to be favorable in S.A., but feared logistical issues and recent declines in production estimates may provide short term support to beans.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2038

Our 1 month temperature outlook appears to be returning to normal.

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/27/2014

AM Comments 02/27/14

Thursday, February 27, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The USDA was out this morning with their weekly export sales report (details below) and this should finally be the week we see big net cancellations to China right?  WRONG.  Another 327k MT of old crop beans were sold (along with 315k MT of new crop sales) last week meaning we still haven’t seen net cancellations and we are increasing –not decreasing—our export commitments. Simply put, ANY old crop soybean sales are ‘too many’. 

 

Corn also saw strong export sales but that market has pulled back and is trading lower as corn futures reached certain objectives on the chart.  The corn market isn’t afraid of export sales, instead it NEEDS them.  Soybeans have 105.8% of the USDA projected sales already on the books while corn has 88.9% of the USDA projected sales on the books. 

 

The outside markets are lower with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 11 @ 102.48) along with a higher US Dollar (136.61 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is lower (DN 17). Palm Oil was lower overnight (DN 24) pulling back after a higher move on Wednesday.

 

So for today expect soybeans to continue to march higher thanks to tight US supplies (that just got a little tighter) mixed with lower production ideas out of South America.  Every day that soybeans work higher they are making new contract highs.  It seems like everybody who cares to talk about soybeans right now tends to be bullish.  Sounds great if you are long beans, but remember that when you put everybody on the same side of the boat… the boat tips. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans 4 to 8 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2033

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/24/2014

AM Comments 02/24/14

Monday, February 24, 2014, 7:58 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The soybean market rallied again last night, now pushing to its highest levels since September.  Generally speaking, there is nothing new in the soybean market.  You can credit these recent rallies to strong world demand (which we already knew) and a little short covering by the end user (also reflecting strong demand and margins).  If you want to, you could also talk about recent heavy rains in South America that are causing a few harvest delays as a catalyst for the higher move.

 

March is just around the corner and that means it won’t be long until we start talking more seriously about planting intentions of the U.S. farmer.  Last week at the outlook meeting the USDA projected corn plantings this year to be 92ma and bean planting to be 79.5ma.  Some fear that the overall acreage base could grow this year thanks to the recent high on-farm profitability seen across most of the belt.  That of course would be bearish to prices if realized.  The USDA comes out with their official “Prospective Plantings” report on March 31^st

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 5 cents

Soybean up 8 to 12 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2027

 

Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/5/2014

Morning Comments 2/5/2014

Wednesday, February 5, 2014, 8:30 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

 

Some momentum from yesterday carried through into the overnight as beans rallied on strong export demand. The rally was cut short with the potential of profitable bean and meal imports from S.A. into the U.S. Harvest yields in Brazil and early yields in Argentina look very strong – as expected. The USDA Feb WASDE report is due this coming Monday; it will be interesting to see what the USDA estimates for exports vs. January with current export sales higher than USDA estimates. Beans closed 2.25 cents lower overnight.

 

The Dollar and Dow were both lower overnight, which is supportive to commodities, but corn had a large amount of farmer selling yesterday which seemed to cap any upward movements. Corn closed 1.75 cents lower overnight.

 

Have a good day!

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2008

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 1-10-2014

Morning Comments 1/10/2014

Friday, January 10, 2014, 8:35 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Quiet overnight trade ahead of the USDA supply/demand report along with stocks estimates for December 1^st set to be released at 11 am. Commodities have made new contract lows the past couple trading sessions with the expectations today’s report will show a record crop in South America. The current average trade guess have corn production just over 14 billion bushels with ending stocks around 2 billion. There are really 4 things to focus on in today’s report: First, how much will crop size increase? The trade is expecting yield to increase to 161.3 bpa. Second, will the demand number change and to where? Soybean export sales are just under 1.5 bln bushels which is already above the USDA estimate so the obvious answer is soybean demand should increase. Third, what were corn stocks on December 1^st? This number gives a good idea of how corn is being used in feed demand. Current estimate is for stocks to be 10.79 bln bushels for corn and 2.161 bln for bean. And lastly, how much of this bearishness is already priced into the market? Since the last USDA report corn has been stuck in a range from $4.20-4.40 but this week we made new lows and are currently sitting at $4.10.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1975

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 12/10/2013

AM Comments 12/10/13

Tuesday, December 10, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The USDA will release their December S&D report at 11am today – the market looks like it will stay relatively quiet up until then.  The trade is expecting demand increases for both corn and soybeans, lower the projected carryouts of each.  Typically this report doesn’t have much fireworks to it as they tend to wait until January when the final U.S. production numbers are released.

 

Weather in South America still looks good, the forecast almost couldn’t be any better in the short term.  Brazil’s government is now forecasting a record soybean production, 90.3MMT, which is 2.3MMT higher than the estimate the USDA gave us in November.  If this crop holds in there, it will likely be a pretty heavy anchor on bean prices come Feb/March forward, if not sooner. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans mixed, up 1c to down 1c

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1940

 

 

 

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 12-4-2013

AM Comments 12/04/13

Wednesday, December 4, 2013, 8:34 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

It was a quiet overnight session and is expected to be a pretty quiet day session as well.  There is a lack of fresh news in the marketplace to discuss. Stats Canada did come out with their production numbers this morning showing that Canadian farmers produced a record 37.53 million tons of wheat in 2013, up 38% from last year and also above market guesses.  Canola production was also above guesses which is putting pressure on the soybean market.

 

Other than that – quiet.  Weather in South America still looks good and winter is coming here in the U.S. with the two week forecast showing below normal temps and normal to above normal precip. 

 

Currently

Corn is down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans are down 3 to 5 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1934

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/15/2013

AM Comments 10/15/13

Tuesday, October 15, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Yesterday the majority of the market was faced with a limited, thin trade with banks and other businesses closed for Columbus Day (not to mention the gov’t is still closed, today is day 15 of the shutdown).  We did not receive our normal harvest progress info yesterday afternoon but we read a Reuter’s poll this morning that shows U.S. soybean harvest at 45% complete (this same poll showed 22% completion a week ago).  They estimated corn harvest to be 31% done (it was 20% last week, according to this poll).

 

There were some strong rains that fell across the Western Corn Belt yesterday, putting a stop to harvest in those areas.  This same system is creeping into the Eastern Corn Belt today but it looks to be more spotty.  Cold temps are coming right behind this storm with the potential for scattered frost in the Dakotas and Minnesota tonight.  The big risk for frost comes after the second cold front hits later this week – producing widespread frost threats for the weekend.  The good news for harvest progress (potentially bearish news for prices) is that the next major rain system doesn’t look to show up until Oct 27^th – 28^th with only light showers showing up in between now and then.

 

Quickly on South American weather… they have received some much needed rains over the past 4 or 5 days in Argentina.  This should help increase their planting pace (farmers down there were waiting for rain as their soils were too dry).  Even with that though, additional moisture will be needed (and currently isn’t forecasted).  Brazil has had much better luck as they have had timely rains and near ideal planting conditions.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to up 1c

Soybeans 3 to 5 cents lower

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1882

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 8/7/2013

Afternoon Comments 8/7/2013

Wednesday, August 7, 2013, 3:17 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

If you look back through your comments over the past 12 or so trading sessions you will see a common theme..markets lower and non-threatening weather. Well today is nothing new so I won’t bore you with the same story that has been told the past several weeks. However, the bearish tone of cooler temperatures may start to turn bullish if the trend continues. Talks have started to shift over to a late planted crop with development weeks behind normal being very susceptible to an early frost/freeze. If the below normal temperature trend persists could we see an early frost? Only time will tell.

 

Ethanol data this week was neutral although production did pick up 2.5% from last week. Corn used this week for ethanol production was 89.6 mln bu vs 103.1 mln needed to reach the USDA projection. At this point it is unlikely the USDA projection will be reached considering many ethanol plants are scheduled for maintenance down time the next two months. China approved the importation on GMO from Argentina today which will add a little pressure to US markets where corn is currently 50-75 cents higher priced than South America and the Black sea region.

 

August weather outlook continues to look favorable for soybean development providing the continued bearish tone. Similar to corn the market will watch for any indication of an early frost which could be more detrimental to soybeans where a significant portion didn’t get planted until late June/early July. USDA announced yet another new crop soybean purchase from China of 220k MTs.

 

Outside markets were mixed with the dollar and equities trading lower on uncertainty of when/if the fed will begin to reduce the QE3 bond buyback program. Crude traded weaker today while metals mostly higher.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1802

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/12/2013

Morning Comments 4/12/2013

Friday, April 12, 2013, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets are higher this morning led by wheat. The USDA finally confirmed rumors of China purchasing US origin wheat which has provided some support to the corn market. Despite negative outside markets, commodities have managed to rally overnight on seemingly all weather news. Not only has the cold and wet weather slowed planting efforts here in the US but China is seeing similar conditions with neither of our forecasts expecting conditions to improve in the next 10 days. Monday will be the first US corn planting estimates which is expected to come in near the average of 5% but well behind last year’s record pace of 17%. Weather models suggest another weather event similar to this weeks to occur the first part of next week with snow expected in the Northern Plains and sub-freezing temperatures to reach as far south as Oklahoma.

Argentine bean harvest is estimated to be 24% complete as the weather has allowed harvest to progress without any delays. Talk of demand spurring up out of Europe has provided the soybean market a little support this morning. Brazil announced they will bump their biodiesel blend up to 10% soy oil from the current rate of 7% using an additional 300k MT.

Outside markets are taking a beating this morning on unfriendly economic data. Currently crude is down $2.01, metals down, equities down, and the dollar higher.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1670

Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 4/5/2013

Afternoon Comments 4/5/2013

Friday, April 5, 2013, 3:08 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Both corn and soybeans closed lower today making it the 5^th out of the last 6 trading days with lower closes. Corn did manage to hold yesterday’s low for nearby corn futures which may suggest the market is trying to form a bottom. Trade has been focused on trying to figure out what the ending stocks will be for Wednesday’s USDA S&D after last week’s stocks number threw people for a loop. The current average estimate is an increase of 204 mln bu. bringing the ending stocks up to 836 mln.

Soybeans were drug down on reduced demand from China after the new strain of bird flu has been reportedly responsible for 6 deaths causing the gov’t to kill 20k birds. The question remains: How much has/will this bird flu strain reduce demand? Chinese markets open back up on Monday which should give us a better grasp on the situation and long effects. For the time being expect the focus to remain on China and the bird flu as opposed to South America logistic problems.

Outside markets were bearish with crude oil trading nearly $5/barrel off the recent highs. Equities traded lower on the release of another poor jobs report that added 88K jobs for the month of March. Despite the poor job creation figure unemployment dropped to 7.6% indicating more people have stopped looking for employment. The 5 day forecast is calling for a good amounts of precipitation for the Delta and Western Corn Belt followed by a drier period that should allow planting to get started.

*Reminder new trading hours take effect Sunday night. Markets will pause in the morning from 7:45 to 8:30 am and have a new close of 1:15 pm. Night sessions will now open at 7 pm (graph below).

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1661

Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 4/1/2013

Afternoon Comments 4/1/2013

Monday, April 1, 2013, 3:32 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets closed lower on follow through selling after Thursday’s report. Liquidation for the corn market continued today with funds sellers of 20k contracts which drove nearby corn to close 53 cents lower. End user pricing was heavy and kept corn from closing limit down for the 2^nd consecutive day. Futures have lost 93 cents since the close on Wednesday of last week. As expected traders have started the debate over accuracy of the USDA figures. The talks now are how the USDA will reflect larger stocks in the April S&D. With the current figures ending stocks would increase roughly 300 mln. bushels. Feed will undoubtedly need to be reduced unless last year’s crop size was underestimated.

 

Soybeans closed 14 cents lower as funds were sellers of 6k contracts. Similar to corn soybean traders are scuffling over the USDA figures as export sales haven’t seemed to slow down as expected due to South America logistic issues. Export sales came in at 16.3 mln (well beyond pace to reach USDA figures) with 11.1 mln coming off the PNW pointed to China.

Weather will be a hot topic the next couple of weeks as we near the start of planting. The pattern shifted slightly from last week as the 6-10 day forecast is calling for slightly above normal temps with above normal precip.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1655

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/27/2013

Morning Comments 3/27/2013

Wednesday, March 27, 2013, 8:21 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets are quiet this morning as today is the last trading day prior to USDA’s release of quarterly stocks and prospective plantings. Nothing has changed in terms of expectations for tomorrow’s report. Trade is expecting bullish old crop corn stocks which isn’t a big surprise with record basis levels confirming their feeling. New crop on the other hand seems to have a bearish tone with outlook showing big acres and improved weather conditions despite December corn gaining 30 cents the past week due to concerns for planting delays. Weekly ethanol data is set to be released this morning with traders expecting to see a slight increase in production with improved profitability and idled plants being turned back on.

Export delays in South America still remain a problem as the wait time for vessels is estimated around 60 days. With Chinese hog profitability at the lowest point in several years it may be unlikely they will switch vessels to the US as demand for soybeans/soybean meal slips off. Oil World cut South American bean production estimates 2.2 MT from last month.

Outside markets are bearish with the dollar trading higher while crude and equities trade lower.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1649

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2013

AM Comments 03/26/13

Tuesday, March 26, 2013, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

It was another mixed overnight session as our markets tread water up until Thursday’s USDA reports.  Corn and soybeans traded on both sides of yesterday’s close throughout the night session. 

Average trade guesses for Thursday’s report:

·         US ACRES

o   Corn 97.3 million acres

o   Soybeans 78.4 million acres

·         STOCKS AS OF MARCH 1

o   Corn 4.995 billion bushels

o   Soybeans 948 million bushels

Any major variations off these numbers will cause market spikes.  Interesting to note the corn acres, basically expected to stay near unchanged from last year.  A month or so ago this was rumored to be 98-100m acres.  The cold weather has changed some traders’ ideas – basically cementing the fact that corn planting won’t be early although it is still premature to consider planting to be late.  I’d expect the market to start trading extended weather forecasts around, oh… 15 minutes after the report is digested!

Currently

Corn is down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans are down 1 to 2 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1648

BRAZIL TRUCK LINE (from a week or so ago):

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 3/21/2013

AM Comments 03/21/13

Thursday, March 21, 2013, 8:40 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Our markets are mixed – with corn taking a few profits and trading lower while soybeans are continuing to bounce a little higher.  Soybean futures are rallying on rumors that there are soybean purchases are getting switched from South America to the US.  Still just a rumor, and it probably isn’t a lot of volume, but it is a friendly input.

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was disappointing for both corn and soybeans.  The weather forecast is still supportive to corn – cold temps are forecasted for the next two weeks for the Midwest, Delta and Southeast parts of the United States.

Currently

Corn is down 4 to 5 cents

Soybeans are 5 to 6 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1644