FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/15/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 08/15/14

Friday, August 15, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybeans markets are bouncing a bit higher today on not a lot of news other than some new FSA acreage data was released.  The FSA is showing 1.54 million of acres of corn and 827k acres of beans that were put into ‘prevent plant’ this spring (far below last year of course).  In general the actual planted acreage numbers from the FSA are a bit hard to read, due to the fact that not 100% of the acres are reported to their office.  However, if you start to extrapolate their acreage data you can make the case that the actual planted acres of soybeans this year are lower than what the USDA gave us in June which means we may see a revision in the January report this winter…  Not a major market mover but it does give the bulls something to chew on today.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 6 to 9 cents higher

 

Have a great day!

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/17/2013

AM Comments 09/17/13

Tuesday, September 17, 2013, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The FSA released their acreage data early this morning and long story short, the data is friendly to both corn and soybeans – especially soybeans.  After sifting through the numbers, the FSA data indicates US corn planted acreage to be around 95 million acres and US soybean planted acreage to be around 76.4 million acres.  Keep in mind these numbers are estimates, almost guesses because not all acres are certified with the FSA.  Those numbers listed above indicate that corn acres are down 2.4m acres from the last USDA report while soybean acres are down just under 0.8m acres. 

 

The corn balance sheet can handle a reduction like this as supplies would still be ample, but the soybean balance sheet just got quite a bit tighter.  **It is important to note that the USDA doesn’t exactly have to use this FSA data.  The big question now is, did the USDA already have some of this factored in in their lower than normal “harvested acres” number earlier this month?  We will have to wait till the Oct S&D report to find out…

 

Not much else for news.  The weather is generally a bearish input as the market is hopeful these recent rains will add to pod weights in soybeans.  Generally, early corn yields are better than expected which is also bearish. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn 8 to 10 cents higher

Soybeans 12 to 15 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1849

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/15/2013

Morning Comments 8/15/2013

Thursday, August 15, 2013, 8:37 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Weather premium is being added to the market this morning even with rain falling in Western Iowa and NW Missouri. Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are in need of a good rain prior to next week’s warm up temperatures with forecasts calling for little to no chance of that happening. There is a tropical storm east of the Yucatan Peninsula that is projected to hit LA and work its way north into the Tennessee Valley and if it shifts west would bring some much needed rain into Iowa and Illinois.

 

Export inspections were bearish old crop and bullish new crop. Both corn and soybean sales showed a net negative meaning cancellations were greater than purchases. New crop seems to be the story as both corn and soybean new crop sales were double what analysts had projected.

 

The big news is the release of the FSA prevent planted acres data. The FSA showed 3.4 mln acres of corn was prevent plant while 1.6 mln acres were prevent plant for soybeans. It will certainly be interesting to see how the market reacts to this data when the market reopens. Keep in mind the USDA currently has planted acres of 97.4 mln acres in the S&D calculations which means one of three things...

A)     The initial planting intentions were heavily underestimated and should have been 100.8 mln acres (97.4 planted+3.4 mln prevent plant)

B)      Planted acres the USDA is using in over stated

C)      Both

 

The correct answer is most likely C) both but the questions is how much of each is correct. This is what trade will probably argue about the rest of the day.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1812