FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/8/14

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/08/14

Monday, September 8, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets are both lower this morning, as a reduced risk for frost is allowing the trade to remove weather premiums out of the market.  How the market closes today could hinge on the midday weather models – a colder outlook could inject a little life into the close but if they confirm reduced frost risk the markets will find additional selling pressure.

Other than that, not much else out there.  There is a bit of macro discussion going on regarding the $US (which is approaching its highest levels in 14 months).  Of course, a strong dollar adversely affects the competitiveness of the U.S. in the export corn/soybean markets which is not what we like to see as we prepare to handle what looks to be a record corn/soybean crop.

Opening Calls

Corn 5 to 7 cents lower

Soybeans 6 to 9 cents lower
http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2255

Child Safety on the Farm

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However, thousands of children are injured and hundreds are killed every year by hazards found on the farm. Some of these children are working on the farm while others wander into trouble on their own or are invited into hazardous areas. Implement injury prevention strategies today to protect agriculture's greatest resource, and the next generation of farmers, our children.

•    Do not allow children to roam freely on the farm. Design a fenced "safe play area." This area should be near the house and away from work activities.

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•    Children who are physically able to be involved in farm work should be assigned age-appropriate tasks and continually trained to perform them. They should also be constantly supervised.

•    Equip all barns, farm shops, chemical storage areas, livestock pens, etc. with latches that can be locked or secured so that children cannot enter.

•    Always turn equipment off, lower hydraulics and remove the key before leaving equipment unattended.

•    Do not expose children to hazards. Never carry them on tractors and equipment or invite them into the farm shop, livestock barns, grain bins, etc.

Together we can! ensure the next generation of farmers are safe.

Source: http://www.necasag.org/pdf/Child_safety_on_the_farm_updated.pdf

FC Morning Market Commentary for January 7, 2014

Good morning!

Average trade estimates are out for Friday’s big stocks/production/S&D reports from the USDA, traders are expecting both corn and soybean production to rise with soybean ending stocks staying tight while corn ending stocks balloon out a bit.  (details below).

In export news, the USDA announced this morning that another 350k MT of soybeans were sold to China for the current crop year (13/14).  This should lend support to a bean market that was lower last night.  Other than that – it is quiet.  Friday’s reports will eventually start to weigh on our markets, as traders remove risk prior to their release

Opening Calls

Corn steady/mixed

Soybeans 2c lower to 2c higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

Farmers Cooperative Company

Ames, IA

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/30/2013

AM Comments 08/30/13

Friday, August 30, 2013, 8:00 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets were weaker last night, the weather forecasts are finally cooling down and there are potential rains in the forecast – although chances are low.  We may walk in here Tuesday (Monday is the Labor Day holiday) with higher markets if these rain chances fizzle out.  With this being a three-day weekend you can expect a choppy trade ahead of it as traders attempt to remove risk from their positions.

 

The early harvest reports out of the Southern Corn Belt and the Delta are still impressive.  The irrigated corn in the boot heel of Missouri is reportedly running between 215 and 250 bpa.  Non irrigated corn will start soon and is expected to be in the 175bpa range.  The cash inverse is starting to slip away as new crop bushels start to move North.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 12 cents

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1833

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/29/2013

8-29-13 AM Comments

Thursday, August 29, 2013, 7:57 am
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl

Overnight markets a bit lower as forecasts reducing heat and adding rainfall for early next week.  This week has been quite the flip-flop affair for prices, almost solely due to weather. This weather spell has undoubtedly hurt yield potential in the western corn belt, but on the other hand….has sped up crop maturity for all. Corn harvest from KY south is happening now with most yield reports very good down there. Something over 1,000 barges of southern new crop corn, mainly from AR and LA, will be making their way NORTH very soon for Midwest corn milling and ethanol plant destinations. Weekly export sales were good for new crop grain, however old crop had net cancellations of business.

Opening calls a little lower, but will watch mid-day forecasts closely.

Have a good day.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1831

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/28/2013

AM Comments 08/28/13

Wednesday, August 28, 2013, 7:42 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Yesterday afternoon we saw corn and soybean futures sell off late thanks to some moderation in the weather forecasts. Overnight both commodities tried to put in a rally before giving way to some selling – they are now both trading a touch lower.

 

There isn’t much news to go on today, crude oil is higher again this morning which could add strength to our commodities as well.  All eyes will be on the midday weather forecasts – if they look any cooler or wetter, expect another sell off in soybeans.  If they stay unchanged or get warmer and drier, expect a rally.

 

Here’s an interesting nugget when comparing this year to past record dry Augusts:

·         Change in Aug production estimates to the final production:

o   ‘71 (3rd) -4.8%

o   '76 (1) -4.1%

o   '84 (2nd) -8.6%

o   2003 (11th) -14.3%

o   2008 (8th) -0.2%

·         Assuming average of those 5 years implies -6.4% decline from 13/14 August production estimate.  Would drop the 3.255 bbu crop to 3.046 bbu (last years bean crop was 3.015 bbu)

 

The next round of FC marketing sessions are tomorrow, with Farnhamville starting at 9am and Bradford starting at 1:30pm

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans steady to down 2 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1829

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/27/2013

AM Comments 08/27/13

Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 7:53 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

We drifted lower overnight (on good volume) after yesterday’s big move that saw the funds come in and buy both corn and soybeans.  The market saw decent farmer selling across the country yesterday in both commodities and basis is weakening a bit because of that. 

 

The outside markets are mixed, crude oil is sharply higher, the $US is also higher and the DOW futures are a little lower. 

 

The weather still looks hot and dry, but if you dig down into the details the heat may be not quite as intense, meaning the forecast is a little milder than yesterday (emphasis on ‘a little’).  Would not be surprised to see a two-sided trade today as people attempt to digest what this record heat means for the soybean crop. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2 cents

Soybeans down 2 to 4 cents

 

Last week’s drought monitor (a new one comes out this Thursday):

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1828

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/23/2013

Morning Comments 8/23/2013

Friday, August 23, 2013, 8:25 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

It’s another weather induced rally for the soybean market with warm temperatures expected to move into the Midwest later tonight. Most of Iowa will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s starting Sunday and lasting to next weekend (maybe longer). Scattered showers will be few and far between causing concern for soybean production. Over the past 10 days the soybean market has put on over $1.50 premium for weather concerns and the question traders are asking is “is this enough” or is “this too much”. Needless to say pod fill will be watched closer over the next several weeks. Corn futures have been reluctantly pulled higher by rallies in the soybean market. Some are estimating with corn maturity where it is that only 1-3% of the US corn yield could be impacted by the heat/lack of moisture moving through the Midwest. That represents 150-400 mln bushels which is a drop in the bucket with the 1.8 bln bushel estimated ending stocks.

 

Pro Farmer released their final estimates of Iowa pegging corn yield at 171.9 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 163 bpa. Average soybean pod count was 927 vs the 3 year average of 1190. Minnesota corn yield was estimated at 181.1 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 166 bpa. Pro Farmer will release their total US production estimate later today. You can probably sum up the tour with better than expected corn yield and disappointing bean yield.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1823

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/22/2013

AM Comments 08/22/13

Thursday, August 22, 2013, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am today… total corn sales were decent, but below the trade guess.  Soybean sales were also decent but the look below the trade guess as well.  Overall this is a probably a little disappointing but close enough to the trade guesses to be a non-event.

 

Pro Farmer should finalize their Midwest Crop Tour results later today, so far their corn crop projections look stout (see table below).

 

 

Decent rains have fallen across Iowa overnight and are still moving across the state this morning.  Parts of Central IA will once again miss these rains but for many, this could be viewed as a crop saver on soybeans.  (precip map below)

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 5 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

 

Have a great day!

 

Past 24-hour Precip Map (as of 8am)

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1821

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/20/2013

AM Comments 08/20/13

Tuesday, August 20, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

ProFarmer’s Midwest Crop Tour started yesterday (map below) they start in both the East and the West and meet in the middle (Iowa) on Thursday.  Yesterday they were in South Dakota and Ohio and they found big crops in both states.  They pegged Ohio at 171.6bpa which is just shy of two bushels short of an all-time record.  Today we will hear reports from those guys/gals from mainly Nebraska and Indiana.  The trade tends to view ProFarmer as a friend to the farmer in regards to price action, in other words the yield numbers they release may be light. 

 

Weather looks unchanged today with warming temps and a general lack of precip.  Some parts of Iowa will see scattered T-storms later this week, but the driest regions still look like they will miss it.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 4 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans 10 to 15 cents lower

 

ProFarmer Crop Tour Schedule:

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1817

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/16/2013

AM Comments 08/16/13

Friday, August 16, 2013, 8:24 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Yesterday we were given a very nice futures rally and the market relaxed a bit overnight – trading a little weaker in corn, soybeans and wheat.  As of right now, Nov beans are approximately 80c higher than they were at the close a week ago today.  Corn’s rally hasn’t been quite as impressive, but it is 13c higher than a week ago and Dec corn slipped above its 20-day moving average yesterday (the 1^st time since June that has happened). 

 

The story is pretty simple – the market is starting to truly question the USDA’s production estimates for next year.  Prevent plant acres were the story yesterday (it surprised a few in the trade, although not everyone) and some are really starting to wonder about potential soybean yields… largely due to the warmer weather forecasted for next week with no sign of moisture in the 10-day outlook. 

 

Speaking of weather… the 6-10 day outlook shows a return to normal temps with below normal moisture for most of the Midwest.  The longer term forecasts look similar, maybe even above normal in temps with normal to below normal precip. 

 

In biofuel news, yesterday the U.S. gov’t inaugurated a plan to boost low sugar prices and mitigate a costly sugar surplus.  In this “Sugar for Ethanol” program they will buy unwanted sugar and sell it at a loss to ethanol makets to produce more biofuels.  This is the first time the Ag Dept. used the Feedstock Flexibility Program with the goal of making sugar into a biofuel feedstock (similar to what they do in Brazil).  Some are thinking that 60-70 million bushels of corn demand could be displaced by sugar.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 4 cents

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1814

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/15/2013

Morning Comments 8/15/2013

Thursday, August 15, 2013, 8:37 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Weather premium is being added to the market this morning even with rain falling in Western Iowa and NW Missouri. Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are in need of a good rain prior to next week’s warm up temperatures with forecasts calling for little to no chance of that happening. There is a tropical storm east of the Yucatan Peninsula that is projected to hit LA and work its way north into the Tennessee Valley and if it shifts west would bring some much needed rain into Iowa and Illinois.

 

Export inspections were bearish old crop and bullish new crop. Both corn and soybean sales showed a net negative meaning cancellations were greater than purchases. New crop seems to be the story as both corn and soybean new crop sales were double what analysts had projected.

 

The big news is the release of the FSA prevent planted acres data. The FSA showed 3.4 mln acres of corn was prevent plant while 1.6 mln acres were prevent plant for soybeans. It will certainly be interesting to see how the market reacts to this data when the market reopens. Keep in mind the USDA currently has planted acres of 97.4 mln acres in the S&D calculations which means one of three things...

A)     The initial planting intentions were heavily underestimated and should have been 100.8 mln acres (97.4 planted+3.4 mln prevent plant)

B)      Planted acres the USDA is using in over stated

C)      Both

 

The correct answer is most likely C) both but the questions is how much of each is correct. This is what trade will probably argue about the rest of the day.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1812