FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/25/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/25/14

Thursday, September 25, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

When corn and soybeans paused at 7:45 this morning they were both ¼ of a cent higher.  So… not a lot of big news out today as you can imagine.  The weather forecasts are starting to look a little more active for late next week which could throw a wrench into our harvest progress as rains move into the western belt.  The temps though – they look to remain above normal in the 6-10 day maps with no signs of frost to be seen.  It is worth noting that in the 8-14 day maps, temps slip back to a more normal/seasonal pattern.

 

Export sales were out this morning – big soybean sales and decent corn sales but this was all right in line with expectations so no surprises there. Overall for today, the wet weather might be enough to keep corn and soybeans out of the red for a while – but with crops that appear to still be growing in size… don’t be surprised with lower prices as we get closer to the end of the week. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady/mixed

Soybeans steady/mixed

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2276

 

FC Morning Market Commentary for 8/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/28/2014

Thursday, August 28, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Export sales released this morning at 7:30 failed to cause any fireworks before the 7:45 break. Old crop corn and soybeans sales were both net negative (due to cancelations) and within market expectations. What’s got the market a bit excited is new crop export sales: new crop corn sales were on the upper range of estimates and beans were higher than the trade expected. The variable to watch today is what is happening in Eastern Europe. Wheat futures are higher on reports of increased tension and Russian troops entering Eastern Ukraine. Unless we know Black Sea exports are being affected, this will be a short term supportive input.

 

Weather looks to be wet for the next few weeks. Plenty of precipitation is in the forecast for the Western Corn Belt with some colder weather to follow. However, there is no threat of frost forecasted at through at least mid-September. NOAA projects a warmer-than-average winter (Nov-Dec-Jan) is on the way, which would be nice after what we had last winter.

 

Markets opening:

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Beans 1 to 3 higher

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2245

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 7/2/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

PM Comments 7/2/2014

Wednesday, July 2, 2014, 4:07 PM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Quiet trade today as negative momentum carries corn and soybeans lower on the close. Forecasts look favorable for corn pollination, pressuring new crop prices 5 cents lower. Today’s ethanol report was neutral – last week’s production was slightly higher than the previous week and usage was 5 mln bu. lower than needed on average. Soybeans closed lower for the 4^th consecutive day, August settling 13 cents down, Nov settling 6 cents down. The export sales report tomorrow is expected to show net-zero old crop bean sales and 11 to 18 mln. new crop bean sales. A positive old crop sales number may provide enough support to temporarily stop the downward slide going into the holiday weekend.

 

Have a good night!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2181

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 6/10/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 06/10/14

Tuesday, June 10, 2014, 7:06 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets this morning are both trading near steady, with corn trading a touch higher while beans are a touch lower.  The next big piece of fundamental news will be out tomorrow – the USDA’s monthly S&D report. 

 

Generally speaking the market isn’t expecting major changes in this report.  In regards to old crop corn – ethanol/export demand feels like it has remained firm while feed demand likely won’t get changed until after the June Quarterly Stocks Report.  The old crop soybean carryout isn’t expected to move much either – although both crush and exports appear to be running above the projected pace that the USDA had projected, the somewhat unknown (and maybe exaggerated) import numbers could keep this report from being overly bullish.  In regards to new crop carryouts? It is probably too early for them to start raising production estimates, but if the weather stays like this – those will most likely be coming. 

 

Overall this report tomorrow could/should show slight reductions in old-crop carryouts for both corn and soybeans.  While this initially could be viewed as friendly to prices – the market will likely shift it’s focus back to weather and crop development shortly afterwards.  For today – we are seeing a bit of short covering in corn ahead of the report which is causing the front end of the market to hold its ground.  Other than that – it is quiet.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2150

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/30/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 05/30/14

Friday, May 30, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The weekly export sales report was out this morning (delayed a day due to the holiday) and it looks supportive for both corn and soybeans.  Let’s not get carried away though, it wasn’t that wild -- both those markets were trading a shade lower before the report was released (7:30am) and now they are a bit higher.  So not a lot of action yet today.  Overall the markets seem quiet/stagnant as they wait for direction. 

 

Weather forecasts don’t look much different – “active” is the word I am seeing used to describe the nearby forecast with chances for heavy rains (up to 3” ) across the corn belt over the next 10 days.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 1c lower to 1c higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2138

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/15/2014

AM Comments 05/15/14

Thursday, May 15, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

At 7:30am today the weekly export sales report was released and it showed net positive soybean sales once again!  Granted, it was only 2.7 million bushels – but like an addict, we just won’t stop.  This of course is supportive to old crop beans and the main thing keeping a lid on the market is the fact that at the same time we are exporting beans (know & reported quantity) we are also importing beans from Brazil (unknown quantity).  The battle between imports/exports, US crush margins / Chinese crush margins, and general logistics to get everything in the right place will likely rage on until the end of the summer when either a) we import enough beans and the price drops or b) the US processor closes the doors (temporarily) and the price drops.  Either way, this old crop bean market will have a bumpy end to it this summer as the $3 difference in price between old crop and new crop slams together.

 

Export sales on corn were neutral – coming out within the range but on the top end.  So not bearish, but not bullish either.  Overall corn does feel a little weak lately as the weather forecasts have allowed (or are projected to) for planting to proceed well. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans 2 to 5 cents higher

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2121

FC Morning Market Commentary

The export sales report was out at 7:30 this morning, prior to that corn was trading steadyish, after that… the market was down a nickel.  The trade was expecting the export sales report (which reflects sales made last week) to show somewhere between 500k and 800k MT of new sales and it came out at only 161k MT.  Soybeans on the other hand came out at 41k MT, which was within the range of guesses (the market was thinking it would be somewhere between a negative 100k and a positive 100k MT).  The fact it was a positive number (not a net cancellation) is friendly all by itself – reason: we shouldn’t be exporting additional old crop beans when beans are so tight that we need to import them from Brazil…  This friendly report could help this bean market correct itself a little bit after the selloff we have seen over the past few sessions.  It may take more than that though to turn these charts around in a big way.

Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their monthly S&D report, this will be the first official look at crop sizes and demand for next year (the 14/15 crop, the one that is getting planted as I type this). 

Weather… good moisture in the 5-day forecast with rains coming not only later today but potentially again early next week, the first map below shows total potential accumulation in the next 5 days.  The forecast looks drier from there forward, shown in the 6-10 day map below.

Opening Calls

Corn 4 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary

Good morning!

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was pretty much as expected.  Corn sales were decent – right in the middle of the range of guesses.  Soybeans sales were near zero (but still a touch positive) which is actually right in the middle of the range of guesses.  New crop soybean sales were a little disappointing, which could cause new crop prices to lose a little ground to old crop today. Old crop soybean meal sales were big, which will offer support to beans.  Overall – not much to see here. 

Generally speaking corn and wheat are both trading weather, and they both view the weather forecasts as friendly.  Wheat is rallying thanks to dry weather in the plains while corn is rallying thanks to wet weather in the corn belt.  Long term, this moisture we have been getting will likely be viewed as bearish to corn prices (we need the rain) – but not until we know the crop is in the ground.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner 

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Comments

Good morning!

The markets ended up mixed overnight, with soybeans trading higher for most of the session only to fall back towards steady at the 7:45am pause while corn followed a similar – but less volatile arch. Soybeans once again made new contract highs last night, it will be interesting to see if they try to test those again during the day session today. 

The weekly export sales this report came out this morning and sales made last week were about as expected for both corn and beans.  There were once again extremely small but still net positive old crop export soybean sales made last week.  AKA – no cancellations.  This should support old crop beans once again.

The 6-10 day forecasts (at the bottom of this email) show above normal temps and precip for next week for most of the Midwest.  Sounds like rain this weekend followed by warmer temps – which isn’t all bad.  This forecast is viewed by the trade as favorable for planting this spring (read: a little bearish to prices).  You will also see in the new drought monitor released this morning that parts of Iowa are seeing improvement – and with rain coming this weekend hopefully that will continue.

*** REMEMBER – NO MARKETS TOMORROW ***.  The CBOT is closed for the Good Friday / Easter holiday.  They will resume again Monday morning. 

Have a great day and weekend!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/1/2014

AM Comments 04/01/14

Tuesday, April 1, 2014, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The corn and soybean markets were firmer last night. It appears that soybeans were leading the charge thanks to the USDA report yesterday that confirmed tight US soybean stocks. The fund money is also still hanging in there as general buyers of commodities. 

China’s official PMI for March was released, the trade expected 50.1 and it came out at 50.3 (it was 50.2 in Feb).  Anything over 50 indicates growth in their economy and the higher above 50 it is – the faster the growth.  So, this number calms a few of the fears that have been showing up recently regarding China’s economy and should help support the market, especially the soy complex.  Also in friendly news out of China it appears their cash soybean crush margins were up a little overnight (they had been getting pounded lately).

 

Extended weather outlooks look favorable for planting in the southern Midwest and Delta as the 8-14 day outlook shows a warmer/drier pattern for those areas.  The northern half of the belt is still showing below normal temps…  They are of course planting corn down south, Texas corn plantings are estimated at 28% complete versus 53% last year and 28% normal. Arkansas is 18% planted versus 20% last year and 30% normal. Georgia is 34% planted versus 28% last week and 44% on average.

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

 http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2065

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/31/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/31/14

Monday, March 31, 2014, 3:31 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

This morning’s report was cause of volatility in the market today with corn trading a 28 cent range and beans a 43 cent range. Nearby corn closed a dime higher as quarterly stocks were 7.006 bln bu – near trade expectations, but still a friendly number as some expected lower feed usage. Export inspections were strong at 52.2 mln this morning. Planting Intentions were 1 mln acres less than trade expectations, helping December corn close 11 cents higher and was also supportive old crop prices. Iowa showed an increase of 400k acres.

Nearby soybeans closed 27 cents higher as the quarterly stocks number of 992 mln bu. reinforced the fact of a tight U.S. soybean carryout (145 mln). Planting Intentions are 81.5 mln acres (a record), nearly 5 mln. acres more than last year. Iowa shows an increase of 300k acres of soybeans. November soybeans closed 3 cents lower on the large acreage number. The market will watch the intentions evolve into decisions and look to weather/spring planting as we stand on the doorstep of spring.

Corn closed up at $5.02

Beans closed up at $14.64

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2064

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/27/2014

AM Comments 03/27/14

Thursday, March 27, 2014, 8:14 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The USDA came out with their weekly export sales report this morning, and I read it as friendly to corn and neutral/friendly to soybeans.  We had another strong week of sales in corn, total sales came in well above the average trade guess.  Old crop soybean sales were tiny last week (less than half a million bushels net) but they weren’t negative - meaning no net cancellations which is supportive.  Currently the U.S. has sold nearly 107% of what the USDA has pegged in their S&D (this equates to an approximate 100mb difference).  It is almost getting too late to see cancellations out of the U.S. because with the vessels already sitting in line, it would cost big $$ to switch them to somewhere else.  It is honestly easier/more cost effective for China to cancel purchases they have from Brazil and instead sell those boats into the Eastern U.S. (read: U.S. soybean imports are increasing, which is needed).

I don’t talk about livestock often but tomorrow’s hogs & pigs report has the potential to be a market mover because of PED – not just to the hog market (which has been rallying) but also for corn.  Any reduction in feed demand of course bumps the bottom line corn carryout higher and is bearish to prices.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2059

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/24/2014

Mid-Morning Comments 03/24/14

Monday, March 24, 2014, 9:07 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The corn and soybean markets are higher this morning, soybeans traded in a big range (40c) last night, trading down 15c when the market opened and got as much as 25c higher in the early morning hours!  Uncertainty over Chinese imports is what has the market so volatile.  There were rumors late last week that a large Chinese importer wanted Chinese crushers to default on open sales due in part to extremely poor crush margins (which would be negative to prices).  Well they had the meeting last night but when no agreement was reached the market turned higher, explaining the sharp rally.

Corn… well there isn’t a ton of news to discuss, corn is trading higher this morning and it appears to be following wheat (which is rallying on drier than expected weather forecasts for the southern Plains).  We are one week away from the USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and prospective plantings report, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see corn remain in a range between now and then.  Once that report is traded, on to spring weather!

Currently

Corn is 6 to 7 cents higher

Soybeans are 2c (new crop) to 7c higher (old crop)

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2054

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/12/2014

AM Comments 3/12/2014

Wednesday, March 12, 2014, 8:29 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

The markets are under some pressure this morning with nearby soybeans down 39 cents. Rumor is China has cancelled some soybean cargos from Brazil, changed some US Gulf vessels last night, and are seeking to exit other purchases. Additional pressure from fund liquidation pushed the price below last week’s low.

Corn was also lower this morning by 4 cents, but the trade is still uneasy about the Ukraine situation. The Ukrainian parliament has voted to keep the country together even if the people of Crimea vote to leave Ukraine. The uncertainty has the market a little worried about what this means for exports.

Opening calls:

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Beans down 30 to 40 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2050

FC Mid Day Grain Market Commentary for 3/11/2014

Midday Comments 03/11/14

Tuesday, March 11, 2014, 12:49 pm
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good afternoon!

 

Feels like an old-fashioned “Turnaround Tuesday” today as the markets recover from yesterday’s losses.  Corn is rallying nicely after the European Union threatened sanctions against Russia in protest of its advancement into the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine.  This has the wheat market firmer which of course spills into corn – FYI Russia is on track to be the 5^th largest exporter of wheat this year (and Ukraine is the 6^th largest) so it’s a big deal.  Safe to say grain traders are watching this situation closely and for the time being the cure to the uneasy, nervous feelings this situation brings is to buy buy buy. 

 

Currently:

·         Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher

·         Soybeans are steady (old crop) and up 10 to 15 cents on new crop. 

o   This price action could be reflective of old crop sales cancellations?  Even rumors about that would cause people to exit the old/new bean spread and explain what we see today

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2049





 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/10/2014

AM Comments 03/10/14

Monday, March 10, 2014, 7:56 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The USDA’s monthly S&D report is out later this morning (11am) and there isn’t much expected for action between now and then.  Overnight the Chinese soybean market was hammered, closing sharply lower along with a bunch of other commodities that were weaker.  Recent export data has been causing concerns about an economic slowdown over there – Chinese exports in February were surprisingly down 18.1% from last year in $US terms.  This apparent evidence of a ‘not too healthy’ Chinese economy sent shares down 2.9% in Shanghai, with Hong Kong stocks down 1.8% and Tokyo shares closing down 1.0%.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans down 4 to 7 cents

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2046

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/7/2014

AM Comments 03/07/14

Friday, March 7, 2014, 8:19 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The funds were active again last night and after a quiet opening, the soybean market took off as funds added to their long positions.  The funds are within 15-18k contracts of their largest ever long soybean position, going back to the drought of 2012 (it will be ugly when this goes away someday, right?).  Corn also saw nice gains last night as May corn on the CBOT broke the $5 mark earlier this morning (and has since came down off of that). 

 

The soybean story is an easy one to tell as the projected carryout for this summer continues to shrink in the mind of the trader.  We seem unable to ration export demand, and domestic crush margins are still strong – it now feels like the US will need to import a fair amount of beans this summer to avoid a “zero” for a carryout.  Chinese crush margins improving overnight just added fuel to the fire (and fund longs to our market). 

 

Outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 53 @ 102.09) along with a lower US Dollar (138.63 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 82).

 

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 20 cents higher

 

And oh by the way – the big S&D report is out Monday.  Details for trade guesses at the below:

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2044

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2014

AM Comments 03/06/14

Thursday, March 6, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The soybean market was trading double digits higher and the corn market had rallied off of its lows to trade slightly positive when electronic trading paused at 7:45am -- both markets can thank the weekly export sales report for their strength.  This week’s report showed strong corn sales (above average trade expectations) and decent soybeans sales, right at the top end of expectations. 

 

While the export sales report is a nice boost of friendly fundamental news – other news is hard to find.  The USDA’s March S&D report will be out this coming Monday at 11am.  The trade is looking for a slight shrinking of the soybean carryout while the corn carryout looks to stay close to the same – maybe a bit bigger.  Don’t be surprised if sometime between now and the weekend this market drifts lower as we get hit with profit taking ahead of Monday’s report.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2042

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/4/2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 4:38 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn closed 13 cents higher today, adding 20 cents the last two trading sessions. The Ukrainian situation is still volatile, but Russian troops have pulled back from the border easing some pressure. Ukrainian grain exports have not yet been affected but the trade is still concerned over the situation. Informa decreased production estimates in S.A. by 1 MMT which provided additional support. Funds were net buyers on the day. Any strong upward moves in corn may be limited by strong carryout estimates.

 

Spillover support from the corn market helped prop up soybeans today with May beans closing 13 cents higher. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as crushers remain profitable. Informa decreased S.A. soybean production by 1.6 MMT. We see demand for beans remaining strong (China, domestic use) while the world supply is slightly lower (S.A. declines); the fundamentals remain favorable to beans. This can change with Chinese cancellations, but we haven't seen any significant cancellations yet.

 

Corn closed higher at $4.84 for May

Beans closed higher at $14.23 for May

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2040

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/3/2014

Monday, March 3, 2014, 3:59 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn opened higher this morning finding support from the political unrest in Ukraine. Ukraine is estimated to be the 3^rd largest exporter of corn this year at 18.5 mmt. With 6 mmt left to export, the trade is concerned about a potential slowdown in shipments. Funds were strong buyers of commodities today as the stock market drops from the concerns in Eastern Europe. Export inspections were also supportive to corn today. Gains from this morning slowly dwindled into the afternoon, but nearby corn closed 6 cents higher at $4.64.

 

Soybeans traded mixed today with old crop closing 7 cents lower and new crop closing 2 cents higher – potentially an effect from bull spread unwinding. While Chinese crush margins are at a 2-year low, we have yet to see any significant cancellations materialize. Domestic crushers remain profitable amid recent price increases. Weather looks to be favorable in S.A., but feared logistical issues and recent declines in production estimates may provide short term support to beans.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2038

Our 1 month temperature outlook appears to be returning to normal.