FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/31/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/31/14

Monday, March 31, 2014, 3:31 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

This morning’s report was cause of volatility in the market today with corn trading a 28 cent range and beans a 43 cent range. Nearby corn closed a dime higher as quarterly stocks were 7.006 bln bu – near trade expectations, but still a friendly number as some expected lower feed usage. Export inspections were strong at 52.2 mln this morning. Planting Intentions were 1 mln acres less than trade expectations, helping December corn close 11 cents higher and was also supportive old crop prices. Iowa showed an increase of 400k acres.

Nearby soybeans closed 27 cents higher as the quarterly stocks number of 992 mln bu. reinforced the fact of a tight U.S. soybean carryout (145 mln). Planting Intentions are 81.5 mln acres (a record), nearly 5 mln. acres more than last year. Iowa shows an increase of 300k acres of soybeans. November soybeans closed 3 cents lower on the large acreage number. The market will watch the intentions evolve into decisions and look to weather/spring planting as we stand on the doorstep of spring.

Corn closed up at $5.02

Beans closed up at $14.64

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2064

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/28/2014

AM Comments 03/28/14

Friday, March 28, 2014, 7:49 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Today is Friday but all anyone can talk about is Monday – and of course, the stocks/acres numbers that we will see from the USDA.  The calls coming out of Chicago so far this morning look mixed – with ‘profit taking’ and the ‘evening up of positions’ being mentioned quite a bit.  It was interesting, yesterday was a big volume day for corn traded at the CBOT – but I’m told if you were there, it didn’t feel like it.  This is likely a sign that the funds were active buyers yesterday behind the scenes.  It is starting to feel like the market will be expecting friendly corn numbers on Monday, anything else and it could turn lower quickly…

As for soybeans, there is nothing new out there that I see.  Today soybean meal is down while soybean oil is up – this is the exact opposite of yesterday’s trade which confirms the thought that today will be choppy.  Soybeans were down yesterday falling victim to fund liquidation ahead of Monday’s report.  I stuck some trade estimates for Monday’s data at the bottom of these comments.

Outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 44 @ 101.72) along with a higher US Dollar (137.33 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 33).

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans steady to 2c lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2060

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2014

AM Comments 03/26/14

Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 8:02 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The markets were quiet overnight last night with corn trading around 2c lower and beans a nickel lower at the 7:45am pause. Yesterday Informa released their guesses on planted acreage this fall and it wasn’t overly surprising.  They showed corn acreage at 93 million acres and soybean acreage at 81.2 million acres.  This is right in line with what most traders are thinking. The average trade guesses for next Monday’s Prospective Plantings report is 92.748ma of corn and 81.075ma of soybeans.

Later this morning there will be a weekly ethanol production report released that could move the corn market a bit, and tomorrow morning we will see our weekly export sales report (bean cancellations anyone??) but other than that this week looks quiet for new news.  So… between now and Monday morning expect a similar trade to what we are seeing today – choppy, mixed, maybe trending a bit lower. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 6 cents

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/24/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/24/2014

Monday, March 24, 2014, 2:46 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

Grains traded higher today with corn, soybeans, and wheat all making double-digit gains. Corn was supported by some fund buying and a solid export inspections number - 45 mln bushels vs. 35 mln needed to meet USDA projections. One week from today, the USDA will release the Quarterly Stocks report and Planting Intentions. Quarterly stocks are expected to be near 7.1 bln bushels; estimates for corn acres are around 93.0 mln acres. Look for corn to be range-bound between $4.80 and $4.90 through this week as the trade prepares for the March 31^st report.

Soybeans gained 16 cents in the nearby with support coming from an anticipated bullish stocks report. Export inspections were also friendly. Chinese crushers are still deciding not to default on purchases, but are working to roll S.A. purchases forward or into the U.S. March 31^st stocks estimates for soybeans are around 980 mln bu. and acres are about 81.0 mln acres.

Corn closed up 11 cents at $4.90

Beans Closed up 16 cents at $14.25

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2055