FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/18/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 9/18/2014

Thursday, September 18, 2014, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

We’ve got some more of the same this morning with corn and soybeans 2 to 3 cents lower at the 8:45 break after a quiet overnight. It’s been a bit choppy the last few days and will likely continue this trend as yield reports from the field make their way to the eyes and ears of the market. Delta and Eastern Corn Belt reports are stout thus far. The Western US is sending us some late summer weather as the next two weeks will be warmer and drier than average (see below) – it looks like this will be a great harvest window. Futures markets will be relatively quiet today and will likely trade two sided and choppy.

 

Have good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2268

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/29/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/29/2014

Friday, August 29, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

We are a bit saturated this morning in Central Iowa – 24-hour accumulations show anywhere from 1” to 4” of rain for the central 1/3 of the state. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts from NOAA paint the same picture: wetter and warmer than average. The warmer temps will be welcome as corn needs to play a bit of catch up on GDDs. At the break, corn futures were 1 to 3 lower, taking a breather after a positive close yesterday. Yesterday’s momentum carried soybeans through the overnight trade with all forward months 2 cents higher this morning. Look for the market to be choppy today as traders position themselves for the 3 day weekend break.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2247

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/26/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/26/2014

Tuesday, August 26, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

The market is fairly quiet this morning, showing weaker futures for corn and soybeans. New crop soybeans are lower at the break (and made new contract lows overnight), reflecting friendly weather and steady/strong soybean crop ratings. Pod setting is 90% vs. 89% on average. As we near the start of September, we know a later-than-average fall will be needed – nothing is showing us that we will receive anything different. Corn ratings improved from last week by 1% nationally, pressuring new crop prices. We anticipate the market to trade steady to lower throughout the day – which won’t make much of a Turnaround Tuesday.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2242

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/19/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/19/2014

Tuesday, August 19, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Corn and soybean futures are both lower at the 7:45 break, corn 3 cents lower and beans a nickel lower. The first of the Pro Farmer tour yield estimates are in: Ohio is 182.1 bpa vs. 177 from USDA and South Dakota is 152.7 bpa vs. 139 from USDA. The market might pay a little bit of attention to this, but is more focused on the crop ratings from yesterday’s report and upcoming weather forecasts. Corn ratings released yesterday showed a slight drop in G/E ratings, 72% this week vs. 73% last week. Iowa improved on the week in G/E ratings, increasing to 76% this week vs. 75% last week. Soybeans improved 1% from last week, coming in at 71% G/E nationally. Weather forecasts are continuing to remain favorable with some heat pegged for this weekend and then a return to cooler temperatures with above average precipitation.

 

Opening calls:

Corn 2 to 3 lower

Soybeans 5 to 7 lower

 

Have a great day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2233

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/14/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/14/2014

Thursday, August 14, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

After a modest close lower yesterday, corn and soybean futures are mixed this morning with corn down ¼ cent and beans even to 5 cents higher. The market has pretty much digested the USDA report from Tuesday and the pre-report pressure has returned to the front of traders’ minds. Overnight, December corn traded near contract lows; November soybeans made new contract lows. Yield estimates, favorable weather, and growing crop sizes will continue pressuring prices to angle lower. Export sales this morning were neutral to futures, coming within trade estimates for both corn and soybeans. As we continue to receive timely rains through the balance of August (like the event forecasted this weekend), the bulls will continue having a tough time making their case.

 

Opening calls:

Corn steady to slightly lower

Beans steady to 5 cents higher

 

Have a great day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2229

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/13/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments

Wednesday, August 13, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Corn and soybeans are both showing green this morning after a relatively quiet overnight trade. Opening calls have corn steady to a penny higher and soybeans 2 to 5 higher. Yesterday’s report was supportive to corn (due to lower-than-expected yields and production) and we see some of that carrying over into today. A weaker dollar adds a touch of support as well this morning as corn feels to be range bound – at least in the short term. Weather (which is becoming less and less of an input) looks good/cool through this weekend with chances of rain hitting most of the Midwest. Key dry areas like Northeast Iowa, Southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Northwest Illinois are forecasted to get some nice rains as well. Warmer temps should follow in the coming weeks to finish off the month of August.

 

 

 

Have a great day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2228

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/6/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/6/2014

Wednesday, August 6, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Nice rain is falling throughout Western Iowa and will move east as the day progress, bringing moisture to regions that haven’t seen much for a few weeks. Corn and soybean futures traded mixed overnight with corn finding some early spillover support from wheat; there are some renewed rumors of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. Next Tuesday, the USDA will release updated crop production numbers. Average trade guesses are 170.2 bpa corn yield (14.250 bln bushels produced) and 45.2 bpa soybean yield (3.815 bln bushels produced). The corn estimate is a lot higher from last month while soybeans are just a touch higher.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2219

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 7/23/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 7/23/2014

Wednesday, July 23, 2014, 8:07 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Corn and soybean futures were relatively quiet overnight, trading mixed to slightly higher into the break at 7:45. However, Dec corn and Nov soybeans did inch low enough to make new contract lows – continuing our trend lower due to outstanding growing conditions. New fundamental news is sparse and the news we have all points to the same thing… big corn and soybean crops. Private crop tours are confirming this potential, with the Doane Crop Tour projecting Illinois yields at 193 bpa for corn and upper 50’s/lower 60’s for soybeans. These would both be records for Illinois. Our weather looks to turn cooler again next week with a few chances of rain this weekend.

 

Have a great day!

 

Opening calls:

Corn steady to slightly higher

Beans 2 to 4 higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2202

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 7-11-2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 7/11/2014

Friday, July 11, 2014, 8:07 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

 

 

Report day. Monthly S&D’s will be released later this morning at 11:00. The trade is estimating a slight increase in corn and soybean production vs. the June S&D report – which is likely already built into the market. Corn yield is estimated at 166.1 bu/acre, bean yield at 45.1 bu/acre. We are seeing some support for prices this morning with some short covering ahead of the report. Look for the market to be a bit choppy ahead of 11:00. Rainfall and cooler temperatures this weekend and next week for Iowa.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2189

 

Opening Calls:

Corn 1 to 2 higher

Soybeans 1 to 2 higher

6-10 Day Temperature and Precip. Outlooks:

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 7/2/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

PM Comments 7/2/2014

Wednesday, July 2, 2014, 4:07 PM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Quiet trade today as negative momentum carries corn and soybeans lower on the close. Forecasts look favorable for corn pollination, pressuring new crop prices 5 cents lower. Today’s ethanol report was neutral – last week’s production was slightly higher than the previous week and usage was 5 mln bu. lower than needed on average. Soybeans closed lower for the 4^th consecutive day, August settling 13 cents down, Nov settling 6 cents down. The export sales report tomorrow is expected to show net-zero old crop bean sales and 11 to 18 mln. new crop bean sales. A positive old crop sales number may provide enough support to temporarily stop the downward slide going into the holiday weekend.

 

Have a good night!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2181

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/31/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/31/14

Monday, March 31, 2014, 3:31 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

This morning’s report was cause of volatility in the market today with corn trading a 28 cent range and beans a 43 cent range. Nearby corn closed a dime higher as quarterly stocks were 7.006 bln bu – near trade expectations, but still a friendly number as some expected lower feed usage. Export inspections were strong at 52.2 mln this morning. Planting Intentions were 1 mln acres less than trade expectations, helping December corn close 11 cents higher and was also supportive old crop prices. Iowa showed an increase of 400k acres.

Nearby soybeans closed 27 cents higher as the quarterly stocks number of 992 mln bu. reinforced the fact of a tight U.S. soybean carryout (145 mln). Planting Intentions are 81.5 mln acres (a record), nearly 5 mln. acres more than last year. Iowa shows an increase of 300k acres of soybeans. November soybeans closed 3 cents lower on the large acreage number. The market will watch the intentions evolve into decisions and look to weather/spring planting as we stand on the doorstep of spring.

Corn closed up at $5.02

Beans closed up at $14.64

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2064

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/26/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/26/2014

Wednesday, March 26, 2014, 3:09 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

News was sparse today with corn trading slightly lower and beans closing higher. Weekly ethanol production added some pressure to corn, slipping .67% vs. last week as rail logistic issues continue to keep a cap on what ethanol producers can ship. Ethanol stocks vs. last week were up 2.46%. Eastern Europe is still volatile, but corn and wheat vessels out of the Black Sea are still loading on schedule. Weakness in wheat (due to needed rains in Oklahoma and Texas) also found its way into the corn market.

Beans traded mixed, but was able to close 12 cents higher. Rumors of Chinese cancellations failing to materialize continues to add support. Stronger meal prices and a decent amount of fund buying were also supportive to beans today. Harvest in Brazil is over 2/3 complete and Argentine producers are discovering better-than-expected yields as they begin harvest.

Corn closed down 2 cents at $4.845

Beans closed up 12 cents at $14.40

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2058

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/24/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/24/2014

Monday, March 24, 2014, 2:46 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

Grains traded higher today with corn, soybeans, and wheat all making double-digit gains. Corn was supported by some fund buying and a solid export inspections number - 45 mln bushels vs. 35 mln needed to meet USDA projections. One week from today, the USDA will release the Quarterly Stocks report and Planting Intentions. Quarterly stocks are expected to be near 7.1 bln bushels; estimates for corn acres are around 93.0 mln acres. Look for corn to be range-bound between $4.80 and $4.90 through this week as the trade prepares for the March 31^st report.

Soybeans gained 16 cents in the nearby with support coming from an anticipated bullish stocks report. Export inspections were also friendly. Chinese crushers are still deciding not to default on purchases, but are working to roll S.A. purchases forward or into the U.S. March 31^st stocks estimates for soybeans are around 980 mln bu. and acres are about 81.0 mln acres.

Corn closed up 11 cents at $4.90

Beans Closed up 16 cents at $14.25

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2055

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/12/2014

AM Comments 3/12/2014

Wednesday, March 12, 2014, 8:29 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

The markets are under some pressure this morning with nearby soybeans down 39 cents. Rumor is China has cancelled some soybean cargos from Brazil, changed some US Gulf vessels last night, and are seeking to exit other purchases. Additional pressure from fund liquidation pushed the price below last week’s low.

Corn was also lower this morning by 4 cents, but the trade is still uneasy about the Ukraine situation. The Ukrainian parliament has voted to keep the country together even if the people of Crimea vote to leave Ukraine. The uncertainty has the market a little worried about what this means for exports.

Opening calls:

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Beans down 30 to 40 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2050

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/10/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/10/2014

Monday, March 10, 2014, 3:30 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Pressure from the March S&D report weighed on the market today with corn down a dime and beans down 40 cents. USDA’s March Supply & Demand report didn’t have any sizable differences from February. Corn ending stock estimates dropped by 25 million bushels (from increased exports) but carryout remains above 1.4 bln bushels. South American corn production estimates stayed even with last month, which was a bit surprising with recent weather issues in Brazil.

 

The soybean carryout estimate was stronger than the trade expected, only dropping by 5 mln bu. to 145 mln bu.

·         Imports increased by 5 mln bu.

·         Export increased 20 mln. bu.

·         Domestic crush decreased by 10 mln. bu.

World production estimates dropped by 2.37 MMT; 1.5 MMT of that reduction was from Brazil due to the recent weather issues. While this may feel supportive, rumors of Chinese cancellations put some heavy pressure on the market. We have returned to pricing levels traded one week ago.

 

Corn closed down 10 cents at $4.78

Beans closed down 39 cents at $14.18

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2047

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/6/2014

Thursday, March 6, 2014, 3:35 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

The corn and bean markets both closed higher today with corn adding a dime and beans adding 17 cents. Corn was supported by the funds as they were net buyers of around 10,000 contracts today. Ukraine exports are continuing as normal, but the people of Crimea will vote on whether to leave Ukraine and join Russia, keeping the market nervous about the situation. Weekly export numbers this morning were 59.8 mln bu. strong – we need to average 6.6 mln bu. a week to meet USDA estimates. Our Midwest weather looks to be warming up in the monthly outlook, returning closer to average.

 

Beans found support and traded near the highs achieved one week ago. Sales are currently 113 mln. bu. above USDA estimates; this fundamental landscape hasn’t changed. Domestic demand for meal remains strong, we haven’t seen any significant cancellations, and the funds were net buyers of beans, oil, and meal today. Monday’s USDA WASDE Report will give more insight on out the carryout picture could change with sales, imports, and potential cancellations.

 

Corn closed up 9 cents to $4.91

Beans closed up 17.5 cents to $14.38

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2043

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/4/2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 4:38 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn closed 13 cents higher today, adding 20 cents the last two trading sessions. The Ukrainian situation is still volatile, but Russian troops have pulled back from the border easing some pressure. Ukrainian grain exports have not yet been affected but the trade is still concerned over the situation. Informa decreased production estimates in S.A. by 1 MMT which provided additional support. Funds were net buyers on the day. Any strong upward moves in corn may be limited by strong carryout estimates.

 

Spillover support from the corn market helped prop up soybeans today with May beans closing 13 cents higher. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as crushers remain profitable. Informa decreased S.A. soybean production by 1.6 MMT. We see demand for beans remaining strong (China, domestic use) while the world supply is slightly lower (S.A. declines); the fundamentals remain favorable to beans. This can change with Chinese cancellations, but we haven't seen any significant cancellations yet.

 

Corn closed higher at $4.84 for May

Beans closed higher at $14.23 for May

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2040

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/3/2014

Monday, March 3, 2014, 3:59 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn opened higher this morning finding support from the political unrest in Ukraine. Ukraine is estimated to be the 3^rd largest exporter of corn this year at 18.5 mmt. With 6 mmt left to export, the trade is concerned about a potential slowdown in shipments. Funds were strong buyers of commodities today as the stock market drops from the concerns in Eastern Europe. Export inspections were also supportive to corn today. Gains from this morning slowly dwindled into the afternoon, but nearby corn closed 6 cents higher at $4.64.

 

Soybeans traded mixed today with old crop closing 7 cents lower and new crop closing 2 cents higher – potentially an effect from bull spread unwinding. While Chinese crush margins are at a 2-year low, we have yet to see any significant cancellations materialize. Domestic crushers remain profitable amid recent price increases. Weather looks to be favorable in S.A., but feared logistical issues and recent declines in production estimates may provide short term support to beans.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2038

Our 1 month temperature outlook appears to be returning to normal.

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/28/2014

Morning Comments 2/28/2014

Friday, February 28, 2014, 8:21 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good morning!

 

The markets are a touch firmer this morning, taking a breath after yesterday’s volatility. It looks like today will be quieter. Chinese futures were lower last night on thoughts of lowered feed demand and Brazilian harvest is nearing 40% complete this weekend. Yesterday’s bean market dip may have happened due to rumors of Chinese bean cancellations, but nothing official has been announced. Fundamentally, the soybean picture hasn’t changed much. Sales of old crop corn and new crop beans were announced this morning, which may give the market some support.

 

It appears the Midwest will be getting more winter weather this weekend. Hopefully the old saying holds true: “In like a lion, out like a lamb.”

 

Opening calls:

Corn up 1 to 2 cents

Soybeans up 5 to 8 cents

 

Today is the First Notice Day for March futures deliveries: soyoil at 3,742 contracts, soybeans at 17 contracts, and corn at 4 contracts.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2035

 

 

FC Afternoon Market Commentary for 2/27/2014

Afternoon Comments 2/27/2014

Thursday, February 27, 2014, 3:01 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Ever heard the saying "a tale of two halves"? Well, that's what it felt like today in the corn and bean markets. The weekly export sales report was friendly to both markets this morning, and additional sales for this week were announced early in the trade day: 284K mt for corn and 112K mt for beans.

 

Beans traded up to 40 cents higher from money flow and fundamental support (which potentially gave the market what is referred to as a blow-off top). Beans eventually settled to trade 20 cents higher through the late morning and corn traded a penny or two stronger in the same period.

 

It seemed then that both markets had too many people on the same side of the boat. March corn fell gradually into the close at $4.48 as producer selling remains active. March soybeans dropped below the $14.00 mark to close at $13.93. The dip may be due to some profit taking and pricing for March wrapping up.

  

Corn closed down 7.5 cents

Beans closed down 13.75 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2034