FC Morning Market Commentary for 8/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/28/2014

Thursday, August 28, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Export sales released this morning at 7:30 failed to cause any fireworks before the 7:45 break. Old crop corn and soybeans sales were both net negative (due to cancelations) and within market expectations. What’s got the market a bit excited is new crop export sales: new crop corn sales were on the upper range of estimates and beans were higher than the trade expected. The variable to watch today is what is happening in Eastern Europe. Wheat futures are higher on reports of increased tension and Russian troops entering Eastern Ukraine. Unless we know Black Sea exports are being affected, this will be a short term supportive input.

 

Weather looks to be wet for the next few weeks. Plenty of precipitation is in the forecast for the Western Corn Belt with some colder weather to follow. However, there is no threat of frost forecasted at through at least mid-September. NOAA projects a warmer-than-average winter (Nov-Dec-Jan) is on the way, which would be nice after what we had last winter.

 

Markets opening:

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Beans 1 to 3 higher

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2245

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/6/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/6/2014

Wednesday, August 6, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Nice rain is falling throughout Western Iowa and will move east as the day progress, bringing moisture to regions that haven’t seen much for a few weeks. Corn and soybean futures traded mixed overnight with corn finding some early spillover support from wheat; there are some renewed rumors of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. Next Tuesday, the USDA will release updated crop production numbers. Average trade guesses are 170.2 bpa corn yield (14.250 bln bushels produced) and 45.2 bpa soybean yield (3.815 bln bushels produced). The corn estimate is a lot higher from last month while soybeans are just a touch higher.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2219

 

FC Morning Market Commentary 051214

The markets were quiet last night while weather across the Western Corn Belt was not – heavy storms rolled through overnight, and it is still raining in Iowa as I type this up this morning.  After these storms push East, the forecasts look generally dry for the next 7 days, which will be help get producers back in the fields.

There really wasn’t a whole lot of news out over the weekend -- other than stories out of Ukraine (yes, it is still tense over there).  The markets don’t seem too concerned about that today, as global equities are higher – but at some point the EU and the US could come up with some new, additional economic sanctions.  As far as the grain trade is concerned, to-date there have still been no disruptions in regards to corn/wheat trade flows out of that area.

Overall for today look for prices to generally drift lower – weather is still the #1 input into the markets and even though there were some heavy (too-heavy?) rains that hit parts of IA overnight – moisture is viewed as good for crops and bad for prices (today)...  Rain makes grain!

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans steady to down 2 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

The markets were higher overnight – led by wheat.  There were some hot temps in wheat country (KS, OK, TX) over the weekend.  It got up to 102 degrees in Wichita, from what I read this is not only a record high for that day in history – but for the whole month of May!  Not good for what is an already stressed wheat crop. 

The Ukraine situation is also helping wheat (and corn) trade higher.  As you may or may not know – in general the issuesover there have had little effect on actual grain exports.  The action has taken place in a different part of the country.  Well… now we are reading that armed Russian-speaking separatists have moved into the city of Odessa (an important export hub) but haven’t taken over the port (yet?).  The export program is winding down over there (it’s that time of year) but this is still something to watch and if they lose that port – grain prices could see a spike.  

Those two stories seem to be the main topics today, along with (of course) weather.  There are increasing chances of rain in the 7-day forecasts, with a system coming through Thursday, followed by another small one this weekend.  Of course, these come after a few days of warm/dry weather which could/should get a large portion of the corn belt back in the fields. 

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Grain Report

The markets last night were a little higher – this looks like a nice little correction after yesterday’s severe drop.  If you looked at weather models this morning, even though the next 5 days look warm and dry - I suppose you could say overall the forecasts are a touch wetter than they were yesterday which would be friendly to prices. The next rain event looks to have just moved up a day or so (coming next Wednesday instead of next Thursday??).  Also in supportive news, Ukraine unrest seems to be on the front page again today, causing traders to put a little risk premium back in the market.  All of this together has helped the market stay positive so far today.

 

The soybean chart had some major damage done yesterday with the +50c drop in July futures prices.  If the market can hold here at these levels, and maybe recover some of those losses - that would be a good sign.  If not, there could be another leg down in this thing. 

 

Overall for today we expect the markets to be choppy with a decent chance we close higherahead of the weekend.  A lot can change in a weather forecast over 48 hours – for better or worse – and nobody wants to have too much risk on the table.  This market could get squirrelly just before the 1:15 close. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

 

Have a great day!

FC Market Commentary 21 Apr 14

The markets started Easter Sunday higher last night – mainly in soybeans – but gave way to selling pressure and this morning we now see corn, beans and wheat all in the red.  The talk overnight was that risk premium was being taken out of the markets as the situation in Ukraine seems to have improved.  Leaders from the U.S., EU, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement last week, at least making an attempt at a peaceful resolution.  This is allowing the grain markets to relax a bit. 

This afternoon, after our markets close, we will get the weekly planting progress report.  The market is expecting corn planting to be somewhere around 10% complete.  This is close to our average and will confirm the market sentiment that planting, so far, is “normal”.  Between good prospects for the 14/15 crop and Ukraine improving – corn has struggled to stay positive lately.  Last night May corn traded to the lowest level since the March stocks report…

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 25 @ 103.12) along with a higher US Dollar (138.06 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 8).

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Comments

Good morning!

The soybean markets continues to impress with another rally overnight – making new contract highs (old crop).  The big bullish story yesterday (which appeared to carry-through into the night session) was the NOPA crush report which showed a surprisingly large amount of beans crushed last month.  12 million bushels more than we crushed in Feb and 16mb more than we crushedlast March.  The market is trying to ration demand and this report shows demand may actually be increasing – hence the higher prices.

The issues in Russia/Ukraine have not gone away, in fact they may be escalating.  Of course no one really knows what will come of this but tomorrow officials from U.S./EU/Russia/Ukraine are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland to discuss possible resolutions. 

The weather for the US corn belt is showing a rise in temperatures with normal to above normal precip in the 6-10 day forecasts (maps below).  This should help get corn planting rocking and rolling in many areas.  Some private analysts are predicting (based on the weather forecasts) that the US will be 40% done with corn planting by the end of April which would be a great start!

Corn prices seem to be stuck – soybean and wheat prices have been firm, corn demand has been strong, Ukraine is still having issues – all of this should be friendly to corn prices.  However, improved planting weather and the ability of the US farmer to plant corn faster than he ever has before has the market cautious about getting caught long. 

The outside markets are higher this morning with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 103 @ 104.78) along with a higher US Dollar (138.37 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 72).

Opening calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans 8 to 15 cents higher (led by old crop)

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

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FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/15/2014

AM Comments 04/15/14

Tuesday, April 15, 2014, 7:58 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Most of the news we are reading this morning is the same type of news you can get from your local news station: it is all about Ukraine/Russia.  Tensions are escalating, Ukraine has now deployed their military for anti-terrorism operations as pro-Russian militants take over police stations in Eastern Ukraine.  Russia is of course playing the same card they did with the Crimean Peninsula – accusing Ukraine of not protecting Russian-speaking people.  If you want to tie this into grain S&D’s, the Ukraine National Bank nearly doubled their benchmark lending rate, changing it to 14.5% from 7.5%.  This is an attempt to slow inflation but their farmers are now facing a credit crunch as they try to finance their 2014 spring planting season.  Corn production estimates for the Black Sea area are already being lowered. 

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 95 @ 103.10) along with a higher US Dollar (138.03 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 27).

Other than that, pretty quiet.  The market is unsure as of now the condition of the HRWW crop after last night’s cold temps. If you see a rally in corn/wheat later today – news regarding those freezing temps could be why…

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans steady to 5c higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2081

FC Morning Market Comments 04.14.14

Good morning!

The markets rebounded overnight, bouncing up from Friday’s lower close.  The wheat market seems to be leading the charge higher (up double digits) likely due to ongoing weather concerns in US wheat country along with escalating tensions in Russia/Ukraine.  Winter wheat crop conditions were already poor (at a 12-yr low) thanks to the drought in the Southern Plains – and now with freezing temps in the forecast for tomorrow morning it looks like they could get worse.

Although some of us here in Iowa will feel that the rains over the weekend were beneficial – the market is trading this cool wet weather as something that is friendly to prices as corn planting will have to wait a little while longer.  Speaking of planting, the USDA’s first planting progress report will be out this afternoon and the market is expecting the US to be just under 5% planted on corn.  This number would be pretty close to normal, and it’s probably too early to get worked up over planting delays…

Opening Calls
Corn 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans steady to 5c higher

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary for March 13, 2014

Good morning!

The markets were steady to higher last night and the weekly export sales report that was released at 7:30am did very little to change that.  Corn sales and bean sales were both near the bottom range of guesses - -so no major surprises there.  The rumors this week (and the reason for the sharp decline in soybean prices) have center around sales cancellations.  If those rumors are true – they will be reflected in next week’s report.

The wheat market continues to find strength thanks to fund buying and continuing problems in Ukraine.  This also help keep the corn market propped up.  Crimea will vote this Sunday on whether or not to leave the Ukraine for Russia, meanwhile Ukraine’s parliament voted to create a 60,000 member National Guard to help bolster the country’s defenses. 

Outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 36 @ 98.36) along with a lower US Dollar (139.41 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 30).

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 1 to 4 cents higher

Have a great day!

 Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain