FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/30/2014

AM Comments 04/30/14

Wednesday, April 30, 2014, 8:13 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean markets were lower last night on little news.  The 6-10 day weather forecast is starting to show above normal temperatures for the Midwest (mainly the southern belt) which could help get the U.S. Midwest back on the path to planting.  The soybean market is feeling a little pressure thanks to fresh rumors of additional Brazilian beans heading to the U.S.  I have said this before – these imports are needed and should be expected, but the bears in the market will still use this as a reason to sell.

 

The outside markets are lower with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 106 @ 100.22) along with a lower US Dollar (138.68 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is slightly lower (DN 9).

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 4 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 6 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2096

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/2/2014

AM Comments 04/02/14

Wednesday, April 2, 2014, 8:16 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

May soybean futures made new highs last night, falling just shy of $15.00 on the board.  Corn and wheat prices didn’t fare as well with corn down around a nickel and wheat down around a dime.  The soy complex rallied yesterday and last night on news that the Senate is trying to bring back the $1/gallon biodiesel tax credit.  The House is of course on the other side of it – their bill aims to keep the credit as-is (expired). 

Basis values were weaker at the U.S. gulf yesterday in both corn and soybeans due in part to heavy farmer selling (thanks to the futures rally) and cheaper barge freight.  Also affecting bean basis is the continued talk of soybean imports from South America.  Imports into this US aren’t surprising, they are in fact needed.  The Eastern U.S. can and will import a good amount of soybeans (they did so last year), but if you look at the image to the right, you will see a loaded soybean vessel headed to NOLA of all places.  High prices cure high prices…

 

Outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 52 @ 99.22) along with a lower US Dollar (137.82 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 19).  The much anticipated U.S. Jobs report will be released Friday. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/1/2014

AM Comments 04/01/14

Tuesday, April 1, 2014, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The corn and soybean markets were firmer last night. It appears that soybeans were leading the charge thanks to the USDA report yesterday that confirmed tight US soybean stocks. The fund money is also still hanging in there as general buyers of commodities. 

China’s official PMI for March was released, the trade expected 50.1 and it came out at 50.3 (it was 50.2 in Feb).  Anything over 50 indicates growth in their economy and the higher above 50 it is – the faster the growth.  So, this number calms a few of the fears that have been showing up recently regarding China’s economy and should help support the market, especially the soy complex.  Also in friendly news out of China it appears their cash soybean crush margins were up a little overnight (they had been getting pounded lately).

 

Extended weather outlooks look favorable for planting in the southern Midwest and Delta as the 8-14 day outlook shows a warmer/drier pattern for those areas.  The northern half of the belt is still showing below normal temps…  They are of course planting corn down south, Texas corn plantings are estimated at 28% complete versus 53% last year and 28% normal. Arkansas is 18% planted versus 20% last year and 30% normal. Georgia is 34% planted versus 28% last week and 44% on average.

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 4 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

 http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2065

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/27/2014

AM Comments 03/27/14

Thursday, March 27, 2014, 8:14 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The USDA came out with their weekly export sales report this morning, and I read it as friendly to corn and neutral/friendly to soybeans.  We had another strong week of sales in corn, total sales came in well above the average trade guess.  Old crop soybean sales were tiny last week (less than half a million bushels net) but they weren’t negative - meaning no net cancellations which is supportive.  Currently the U.S. has sold nearly 107% of what the USDA has pegged in their S&D (this equates to an approximate 100mb difference).  It is almost getting too late to see cancellations out of the U.S. because with the vessels already sitting in line, it would cost big $$ to switch them to somewhere else.  It is honestly easier/more cost effective for China to cancel purchases they have from Brazil and instead sell those boats into the Eastern U.S. (read: U.S. soybean imports are increasing, which is needed).

I don’t talk about livestock often but tomorrow’s hogs & pigs report has the potential to be a market mover because of PED – not just to the hog market (which has been rallying) but also for corn.  Any reduction in feed demand of course bumps the bottom line corn carryout higher and is bearish to prices.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2059

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/24/2014

Mid-Morning Comments 03/24/14

Monday, March 24, 2014, 9:07 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The corn and soybean markets are higher this morning, soybeans traded in a big range (40c) last night, trading down 15c when the market opened and got as much as 25c higher in the early morning hours!  Uncertainty over Chinese imports is what has the market so volatile.  There were rumors late last week that a large Chinese importer wanted Chinese crushers to default on open sales due in part to extremely poor crush margins (which would be negative to prices).  Well they had the meeting last night but when no agreement was reached the market turned higher, explaining the sharp rally.

Corn… well there isn’t a ton of news to discuss, corn is trading higher this morning and it appears to be following wheat (which is rallying on drier than expected weather forecasts for the southern Plains).  We are one week away from the USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and prospective plantings report, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see corn remain in a range between now and then.  Once that report is traded, on to spring weather!

Currently

Corn is 6 to 7 cents higher

Soybeans are 2c (new crop) to 7c higher (old crop)

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2054

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 6/6/2013

Morning Comments 6/6/2013

Thursday, June 6, 2013, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets have been quiet overnight with corn and beans trading steady to slightly lower. Rainfall totals for Iowa over the past 24 hours were scattered with spots seeing upwards of 2” while the majority ranged in the .5”-1” area. Weather models are showing the middle part of next week to be a touch wetter than previous estimates. The eastern corn belt has missed the recent rains which has allowed farmers in parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois to continue planting progress of both corn and beans.

 

Exports this morning showed old crop corn exports of 4.2 mln bu. up from last week’s 3.4 mln. Corn is now at 91% of the USDA projection of 750 mln bushels. After net cancelations last week soybeans this week showed a net export of 1.8 mln bushels and currently stand at 99.6% of USDA projections. Soybean importers continue to purchase new crop beans with sales this week totaling 21.7 mln bushels.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1735

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/16/2013

AM Comments 05/16/13

Thursday, May 16, 2013, 8:24 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
 

Good morning!

 

Our markets chopped around last night and ended up trading mostly higher on very little news.  Weather forecasts look pretty much unchanged from yesterday, so there is nothing new on that front. Scattered small showers to end the week with good chances coming Sunday. 

 

The weekly export sales report was out this morning, and it looks pretty much as expected for corn, soybeans and wheat.  Nothing there to move the markets a whole lot.

 

Planters are rolling hard which is causing traders to attempt to look ahead to next Monday afternoon’s planting progress report.  Most are expecting a big jump in overall US acres planted to corn.  But how big can it be?  The report issued this past Monday had the US pegged at 28% planted versus 65% on average.  It would take a historic week of planting to get anywhere close to average.

Farmers Cooperative - Market Commentary Details