FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/13/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/13/14

Thursday, November 13, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

After a big day yesterday that featured big market swings with prices rallying to new highs in both corn and soybeans followed by a weaker close in soybeans. Also of note corn futures are said to have traded a record daily volume yesterday with over 663 thousand contracts of corn trading hands yesterday!  This high volume implies that there has been big speculative buying taking place. 

 

The soy complex sell off can be attributed to rumors that multiple cargoes of South American soybean meal were booked to ship into the East Coast of the U.S.  That, along with good farmer selling pressured prices.

 

Overnight the markets were mixed but are trading firmer this morning on good volume which again is likely due to new spec/fund buying.  I’d expect another choppy day with both markets potentially trading both sides of yesterday’s close at some point through the day.  However, if the funds are going to stand in here and buy – dips may be short term…

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2333

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/28/14

Tuesday, October 28, 2014, 8:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It was another surprising night last night in the grain trade as the futures markets rallied sharply again on what looks to be a new round of fund money entering the market.  The phones here have been steadily ringing with questions as to why??  These questions are valid and somewhat tough to answer because as we look at the fundamental picture laid out in front of us, we have record world stocks of soybeans and a record U.S. soybean crop in front of us – and rallying markets. It is hard to make sense of that for sure. 

 

First glance, this rally yesterday appears driven by soybean meal.  Strong soymeal basis in the eastern U.S. has helped push the December meal contract up to levels it hasn’t seen since June and Dec meal is now only $20 off the contract high!  There are a couple reasons for this move, generally there is strong demand for meal but the slow pace to bean harvest in the East is making it hard to find.  Yes, according to yesterday’s harvest progress report the US is 70% harvested on beans but Illinois is only 63%, Indiana is only 50% and Ohio is only 50% complete.  Those three states are approximately 25% behind their average pace which has that part of the country struggling to fill the pipeline.  The second factor that needs mentioned is the transportation situation.  Meal basis in Illinois is over $50/ton higher than it is here in parts of Iowa.  You would like to think you could just rail meal from West to East to take care of that gap.  Unfortunately if you tried to do that today, you would pay big money for the cars AND with slow service you would struggle to get the cars in time to make a difference.  So instead you panic a bit and pay whatever it takes to get the meal (hence the historic meal basis levels).  This of course drives meal prices higher which takes soybean prices higher – then the funds get involved as they bail out of their short futures positions and here we are. High prices in a year where the U.S. looks to be flush with soybeans (eventually).

 

Weather… parts of the eastern Corn Belt had some small rains come through last night but overall the weather forecast looks excellent for harvest progress in the US for both corn and soybeans.  The soy complex could feel a lot different later this week or early next as harvest finally pushes soybean onto the market.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 5 to 7 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 20 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2314

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/14/2014

AM Comments 05/14/14

Wednesday, May 14, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Both corn and soybeans are trading within a penny of yesterday’s close this morning, so… not a lot of action.  The short-term weather forecasts looks great to finish out the week and into next week with the rain staying away giving a nice window for WCB field work to be completed.  The extended weather is starting to shift into more of a wetter pattern which by then could/should be welcomed with open arms.

 

The bulls may have something to chew on in the bean market as it appears that China’s “issues” they’ve had with soybean margins/demand/etc may finally be turning around.  There is a story out there about China’s meal demand starting to pick back up which is a good sign. 

 

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 31 @ 102.01) along with a lower US Dollar (137.14 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is lower (DN 15).

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c lower

Soybeans steady to 1c higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2119

 

 

FC Mid-day Grain Market Commentary for 7/26/2013

Mid-Day Comments 07-26-13

Friday, July 26, 2013, 11:42 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It sure looks like the markets were ready to take a breather as we are experiencing a calm end to the week (about the only calm day we have had all week).  Dec corn on the board has so far been unable to break through yesterday’s low of 4.75 cz – which is a good thing for the bulls as they look for signs of a short term bottom.  The cash market on corn is still stunned after the 50c to $1 drop in basis yesterday.  So far it appears corn basis will stay where it is, at least for today.

 

The USDA did announce this morning the sale of 220k MT of new crop soybeans to China and 211k MT of new crop corn to unknown which is somewhat helping the market stabilize. 

 

August soybean meal – after being down the limit ($20) two days in a row is actually trading again, only down $18 right now.  Still a negative input on cash soybeans of course but it is nice to see it trade again.  Meal is currently around $90 off of Tuesday’s high.

 

Ethanol futures have lost 25 cents this week (a huge move), with most of it coming over the past two days.  This means that ethanol is now at its lowest level since January which could help explain some of the weakness in corn. 

 

The newest drought monitor came out, and the big change from last week is that Iowa jumped from 20% of the state being abnormally dry to 63% abnormally dry.  Note that this was as of Tuesday (before last night’s rain). 

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1787

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 7/25/2013

AM Comments 07/25/13

Thursday, July 25, 2013, 8:18 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

For the third day in a row, the front end of the soybean market is crashing – led by nearby soybean meal.  August meal is locked down the limit for the second day in a row and the group of people willing to sell meal down the limit is growing – which means this may not be done.  Another limit move tomorrow and the soybean meal market will have lost almost $100 off of Tuesday’s high.  Wow.  Farmer movement in soybeans has pretty much shut off as cash beans have lost over $2/bu since Monday.

 

The weekly export sales report was out this morning, soybean sales were actually pretty good - coming in above the average trade guess with strong new crop sales in particular.  Old crop corn sales were dismal (not surprising) and new crop sales were decent, but still below expectations. 

 

The weather forecasts haven’t changed much from yesterday.  Small rains will roll through the Midwest today and tomorrow with another rain event coming early next week for mainly the Southern Belt.  A third event is also slotted for late next week with another half inch of rain. Safe to say that the weather outlook is nonthreatening so far this morning.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 5 cents

Soybeans down 20 to 30 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1785