FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/4/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/04/14

Tuesday, November 4, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets are lower this morning with the charts (especially soybeans) starting to turn ugly as the market quickly retreats off of recent highs.  A lot of chatter this morning about the energy markets, particularly crude oil.  Crude oil was down $3/barrel at one point last night, pushing to the lowest levels we have seen since 2009!  This type of action seems to have put all commodity futures on the defensive.

 

Another input into last night’s lower prices was the release of private crop estimates yesterday afternoon which confirmed ideas that production/yields will be big (a 14.7 billion bushel corn crop and a bean crop that is over 4 billion bushels).  Another private company is set to release their estimates at 10am today.  These numbers are all being published this week because the USDA will be out this coming Monday with the November S&D report. 

 

Weather… although there are spotty rains in parts of the corn belt the general feeling is that the weather is still favorable for harvest and over the next 7-10 days harvest should continue to progress.   

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 5 to 7 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2320

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/3/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/3/2014

Monday, November 3, 2014, 8:11 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Pullback pressure this morning has corn and soybean futures lower at the 7:45 break after positive performances for both commodities on Friday. Soybeans are down 10 cents and corn is 4 cents lower. Harvest progress and good weather is adding some pressure too as we look at a favorable national forecast for this coming week. Expectations for tonight’s harvest progress report show us gaining some ground compared to our average pace. Corn is expected to be 61% to 65% complete (73% on average). Soybeans are expected to show us catching up to our average pace of 84%. We’ve got a chance for rain across Iowa today and another small chance on Wednesday. The 10-day has rain in the forecast for next Monday as well, but the feel is most of corn harvest should be wrapping up by then.

 

Soybean meal basis (the reason for our recent run in soybeans) still hasn’t broken lower. We have a lot of soybeans around, but the number of bushels that are available due to logistical hang-ups are much fewer. Once those issues get resolved, we can expect the recent premium placed on the market to disappear.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2319

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/28/14

Tuesday, October 28, 2014, 8:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It was another surprising night last night in the grain trade as the futures markets rallied sharply again on what looks to be a new round of fund money entering the market.  The phones here have been steadily ringing with questions as to why??  These questions are valid and somewhat tough to answer because as we look at the fundamental picture laid out in front of us, we have record world stocks of soybeans and a record U.S. soybean crop in front of us – and rallying markets. It is hard to make sense of that for sure. 

 

First glance, this rally yesterday appears driven by soybean meal.  Strong soymeal basis in the eastern U.S. has helped push the December meal contract up to levels it hasn’t seen since June and Dec meal is now only $20 off the contract high!  There are a couple reasons for this move, generally there is strong demand for meal but the slow pace to bean harvest in the East is making it hard to find.  Yes, according to yesterday’s harvest progress report the US is 70% harvested on beans but Illinois is only 63%, Indiana is only 50% and Ohio is only 50% complete.  Those three states are approximately 25% behind their average pace which has that part of the country struggling to fill the pipeline.  The second factor that needs mentioned is the transportation situation.  Meal basis in Illinois is over $50/ton higher than it is here in parts of Iowa.  You would like to think you could just rail meal from West to East to take care of that gap.  Unfortunately if you tried to do that today, you would pay big money for the cars AND with slow service you would struggle to get the cars in time to make a difference.  So instead you panic a bit and pay whatever it takes to get the meal (hence the historic meal basis levels).  This of course drives meal prices higher which takes soybean prices higher – then the funds get involved as they bail out of their short futures positions and here we are. High prices in a year where the U.S. looks to be flush with soybeans (eventually).

 

Weather… parts of the eastern Corn Belt had some small rains come through last night but overall the weather forecast looks excellent for harvest progress in the US for both corn and soybeans.  The soy complex could feel a lot different later this week or early next as harvest finally pushes soybean onto the market.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 5 to 7 cents higher

Soybeans 10 to 20 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2314

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/27/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 10/27/14

Monday, October 27, 2014, 7:10 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

It was a good harvest weather weekend across the Corn Belt and the weather forecasts for the week look mostly dry which should accelerate harvest as many farmers wrap up soybeans and switch turn their full attention to corn. The weekly harvest progress report will be out this afternoon, soybeans are expected to come in at over 70% harvested while corn should be over 40% harvested. 

 

A news story this morning that could end up being bearish to corn and soybean prices is the reelection of the Brazilian President. This is expected to weaken the Brazilian currency (the Real) which would not only make Brazilian exports more competitive but it also likely to cause an increase in farmer selling in that part of the world.

 

Overall expect weaker markets for today and while the markets don’t appear poised to test contract lows anytime soon – an active harvest and negative fundamentals should keep things under pressure today and potentially throughout the rest of the week.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2312

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/22/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 09/22/14

Monday, September 22, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

New contract lows are being made this morning on corn, soybeans & meal as the markets grind lower on good weather and big yield reports.  The majority of the Midwest looks to stay warm and dry for the rest of week with no signs of a freeze or frost for the next couple of weeks.  The yield reports coming out of Illinois are just absolutely phenomenal (a bunch of from 250 to 300+ bpa) and with the clear weather forecast – we should start to hear even more yields from across the corn belt soon.  I did hear this morning that some producers in the eastern corn belt will temporarily stop harvesting corn and switch to beans soon because the beans are drying down fast.  This could be the final nail in the coffin on the old crop / new crop soybean inverse as the bean pipeline starts to fill.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 4 cents lower

Soybeans 14 to 17 cents lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2272

 

 

FC Weekly Safety Tip for 9/19/2014

Safe Use of Harvesting Equipment

 

Harvesting equipment is a necessity on farms to gather the crops for a bountiful harvest. Harvest time is primary revenue time on many farms and is also one of the peak periods for farm injuries and deaths. Many of these injuries can be prevented through effective farm safety management.

 

•      Develop a "safety first" attitude. Follow safe work practices all the time and set a good example for others.

•      Be physically and mentally fit before operating equipment. Fatigue, stress and worry can distract you from safely operating equipment. Take frequent breaks.

•      Pay attention to all safety information. Read operator's manual and warning decals.

•      Inspect the equipment and correct any hazards before operating.

•      Identify hazardous areas on equipment and make sure you stay away from moving parts. Beware of pinch points, shear points, wrap points, pull-in areas, thrown objects, crush points, stored energy hazards and freewheeling parts.

•      Make sure everyone who operates the equipment has the appropriate training and is physically able to operate it safely.

•      Shut down equipment, turn off the engine, remove key and wait for moving parts to stop before dismounting equipment.

•      Keep bystanders and others away from equipment operation area. Do not allow "extra riders", especially children.

 

Information supplied by the National Safety Council’s Agricultural Division, the National Education Center for Agricultural Safety (NECAS) – www.necasag.org or 888-844-6322.

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary 11/8/2013

AM Comments 11/08/13

Friday, November 8, 2013, 7:46 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Nothing much to say this morning as the market prepares for the 11am release of the November crop reports from the USDA.  As you know, we haven’t seen data from the USDA since September, so this report will be very important in determining flat price and spreads for both corn and soybeans from here forward.  The trade estimates are at the bottom of these comments, reflecting what the market is currently trading.

 

So.  Expect a quiet trade up until 11am.  Updated weather forecasts look cooler and drier for next week, the next chance of decent precip doesn’t show up until next weekend and even that is sketchy at best.  This should allow harvest to get wrapped up most everywhere.

 

Opening Calls

Corn mixed, down 1c to up 1c

Soybeans steady to down 3c

 

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1910

 

 

Prevent Combine Fires

When it comes to preventing combine fires, there are just two key points to remember: prevention and preparation.

Prevention

• Keep the machine clean. Power-wash to remove caked-on grease, oil and crop residue. During harvest, frequently blow dry chaff, leaves and other crop materials off the machine. Remove any materials that have wrapped around bearings, belts and other moving parts. Be sure to check those pockets where wires or lights are housed and chaff accumulates.
• Eliminate heat sources. Exhaust systems surfaces, exposed electrical wiring and worn bearings, belts and chains can potentially generate enough heat to start dust and crop residue on fire. Check these areas daily and make repairs if there are problems.
• Don’t park a hot combine in the shed or shop. After a long day of harvesting, smoldering hot spots may be present in the combine. If those spots suddenly flare up, at least you won’t lose the building!

Preparation

• Keep at least one fully-charged, 10-pound ABC dry chemical fire extinguisher with an Underwriter’s Laboratory approval in the combine cab.
• Mount a second fire extinguisher on the outside of the machine that can be reached from ground level.
• Recharge partially discharged extinguishers.
• Have a cell phone.
• Have a plan. Turn off the engine, get the fire extinguisher and your phone. Get out and get help.
• Approach the fire with extreme caution. Small fires can flare up quickly with the addition of air (by opening doors or hatches).
• Stay a safe distance away.
• Know when to wait for help.

http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/only_you_can_prevent_combine_fires

Harvest Safety Tips

Here are a few safety tips from Michigan State University Extension to consider on your farm as producers prepare and start harvesting this season. These tips are true even for experienced farmers. 

• Read operators manual(s).
• Install Slow-Moving Vehicle (SMV) signs.

  

  Harvesting in Iowa. Photo (c) Nick Halverson

• Wear seat belts.
• Put equipment in neutral or park, engage parking brake, and turn off engine before dismounting. Wait until all mechanisms have stopped moving before attempting to service or unclog a machine.
• Locking hydraulic cylinders or supporting the head prior to working under it is always recommended.
• Limit riders on equipment! Instructional seats are designed for training or diagnosing machine problems.
• Keep all guards in place.
• Take breaks. Get enough sleep.
• Train all operators to safely operate the equipment.
• Fatigue, stress, medication, alcohol and drugs cause you to not focus on tasks.
• Have all safety equipment in proper condition and ready to use such as safety glasses, hearing protection and respiratory masks.
• Have ROPS (rollover protective structures) fitted on tractors.

Stay safe! Together we can!

http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/fall_harvest_safety_tips

Have a Safety Plan for Harvest

As most farms get larger and producers are farming more acres, having a Safety Plan for your team is increasingly important. Plan for an injury- and incident-free harvest season. Develop a safety plan for the fall and include:

• Team communications
• Any training/operator refresher courses etc.
• Maintenance schedules
• Emergency procedures in place and reviewed by entire team
• Expectations such as wearing personal protective equipment, checking in regularly and compliance with safety protocol procedures (such as shutting down equipment before unplugging, taking regular breaks, working with a buddy on specific tasks)

Most harvest injuries and fatalities involve machinery and equipment.

• Be extra vigilant when re-familiarizing yourself with equipment such as swathers, mowers, combines and augers. Never become complacent with equipment.
• Ensure implements are attached or hitched properly and in good working order
• Review operation manuals and follow maintenance guidelines.
• Ensure all guards and shields are in place and secure
• Watch for changes in terrain such as holes, ruts or debris that may cause upsets or roll overs

http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/aet14537

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 10/8/2013

Morning Comments 10/8/2013

Tuesday, October 8, 2013, 8:14 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Once again the markets were quiet overnight with corn trading in a 2 cent range while soybeans chopped around in a 7 cent range. News has been very limited the past week and a half with the government shutdown leaving traders in the dark. The USDA will not release the October S&D on Friday and the possibility of even seeing the report in October is dwindling by the day. Although we may not see the USDA report there is still data on the average trade guess for what the report was expected to look like. Average trade guess for corn was a yield of 156.5 bpa up slightly from 155.3 bpa in September. The average production estimate is 13.8 bln bushels, unchanged from September due to a reduction in harvested acres. Most trade is expecting a slight reduction in exports widening the carryout to 1.923 bln from 1.855 bln last month.

 

Soybeans are finding slight support from the higher Dalian (China exchange). Average trade guess for soybeans is 41.5 bpa up .3 bpa from last month. Production up slightly to 3.156 bln bushels from 3.149 bln last month widening the carryout to 167 mln from 150 mln last month. Either way you look at the soybean market the carryout is tight.

 

Remember these are trade guesses for a report that has been delayed and may never be released but it’s about the only direction the market has to trade off for now.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1873

 

Farm Vehicle Safety

Harvest season means more farm vehicles will be sharing the roadways with other vehicles. That includes combines and other harvesting equipment moving from one field to another, as well as trucks and tractors transporting produce. To help ensure your safety:

• Display the Slow Moving Vehicle (SMV) emblem on all off-road vehicles. Make sure emblems are in

  

  During harvest time, make sure your equipment is properly
  equipped for safe travel on the roads. 

  good condition and properly mounted.
• Use proper vehicle lighting.
• Use flashers anytime you use public roads. The American Society of Agricultural Engineers (ASAE) recommends two flashing amber lights, mounted at least 42 inches high, in both the front and rear.
• Comply with your state laws. Most state laws require using headlights 30 minutes before sunset, until 30 minutes after sunrise.
  
  Also use headlights whenever insufficient light or unfavorable weather conditions exist. ASAE recommends two headlights on the front, at the same level, positioned as far apart as possible. They also recommend one rear-left and one rear-right red taillight mounted as far apart as possible, and two red reflectors visible from the rear.
• Inspect hitches to verify they are sturdy and properly mounted before towing equipment or using wagons. Always use safety chains, if equipped.

We can all be a little safer this year by following these simple safety tips. Stay safe! Together we can!

http://www.nationwide.com/pre-harvest-safety.jsp

Farm Safety Tip - Hay Harvest Safety

• Read the operator’s manual (again). Haying equipment is used only during the summer, giving you nearly a year to forget the safety warnings.
  
• Keep yourself alert during harvest season: Drink plenty of liquids, eat regular meals, get enough sleep, and take breaks.
• Make sure all guards and shields are in place on all your harvesting equipment.
• NEVER try to unplug the baler until you have disengaged the power take-off, shut off the tractor engine, and put the ignition key in your pocket.
• For conventional balers, remember the flywheel keeps the machine operating for a considerable time after power is disengaged. Never work on a baler until the fly wheel has completely stopped.
• For round balers, Make sure twine is properly threaded and the twine arm is adjusted and in good working condition. Do not feed twine by hand into the baler.
• With forage wagons, stay clear of the discharge conveyor while operating. Remain in the tractor seat.
• With cutting equipment, never try to adjust cutter bars, reels, or conditioning rollers without disengaging the power. Avoid rushed movements when working close to the equipment, even when stationary, because of it’s sharp edges and points.

Source: http://www.ipmnet.org/tim/Farm_Safety/Farm_Safety_Tip_-_Hay_Harvest_Safety.pdf

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/30/2013

AM Comments 08/30/13

Friday, August 30, 2013, 8:00 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets were weaker last night, the weather forecasts are finally cooling down and there are potential rains in the forecast – although chances are low.  We may walk in here Tuesday (Monday is the Labor Day holiday) with higher markets if these rain chances fizzle out.  With this being a three-day weekend you can expect a choppy trade ahead of it as traders attempt to remove risk from their positions.

 

The early harvest reports out of the Southern Corn Belt and the Delta are still impressive.  The irrigated corn in the boot heel of Missouri is reportedly running between 215 and 250 bpa.  Non irrigated corn will start soon and is expected to be in the 175bpa range.  The cash inverse is starting to slip away as new crop bushels start to move North.

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 12 cents

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1833

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/29/2013

8-29-13 AM Comments

Thursday, August 29, 2013, 7:57 am
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl

Overnight markets a bit lower as forecasts reducing heat and adding rainfall for early next week.  This week has been quite the flip-flop affair for prices, almost solely due to weather. This weather spell has undoubtedly hurt yield potential in the western corn belt, but on the other hand….has sped up crop maturity for all. Corn harvest from KY south is happening now with most yield reports very good down there. Something over 1,000 barges of southern new crop corn, mainly from AR and LA, will be making their way NORTH very soon for Midwest corn milling and ethanol plant destinations. Weekly export sales were good for new crop grain, however old crop had net cancellations of business.

Opening calls a little lower, but will watch mid-day forecasts closely.

Have a good day.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1831

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 7/26/2013

AM Comments 07/26/13

Friday, July 26, 2013, 7:51 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our corn and soybean futures seem to have calmed down this morning, with both commodities trading steady to a little higher as of this writing.  It has been a wild, volatile week for flat price corn and soybeans.  The old crop soybean market got smacked around for most of the week, thanks to strong producer selling last week, China rumors about them selling their reserve beans, and a soybean meal market than couldn’t find a bottom. Current cash bean prices for producers are over $2.50 lower than a week ago today.

 

Yesterday corn followed in the footsteps of the soybean market, and the cash prices imploded.  It was almost like the market just now started to realize that there is a corn crop growing in the U.S. – and it will be here relatively soon.  The southern part of the U.S. will be harvesting soon and some have already started (in the Delta for example).  As every week goes by, that corn harvest moves a couple hundred miles north which makes end users and processors less willing to step up and pay big bucks for old crop corn. Basis is a function of what someone is willing to pay for corn, and yesterday the demand sector’s ideas of what they were willing to pay changed dramatically.  They will now wait and see if people holding onto old crop corn sell into it at these levels – if they do, there could be more downside.  If not, we should see a recovery.   Current cash corn prices for producers are almost $1.50 lower than a week ago today. 

 

It is important to note that there is still an inverse between old crop and new crop.  Right now old corn is worth around $1.20 more than harvest corn.  Old crop soybeans are around worth around $1.40 more than harvest soybeans.  So while the massive inverses did get chopped in half this week, there is still a large incentive to bring old crop to market this summer and not drag it into the lower harvest prices this fall.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1 cent higher

Soybeans steady to 3 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1786