A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/16/2013

AM Comments 04/16/13

Tuesday, April 16, 2013, 8:19 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets are bouncing back higher this morning – possibly gaining strength from yesterday afternoon’s planting progress report which came in at 2% planted across the U.S. (it was expected to be 5-7%).

 

Gold futures have taken a beating the last couple days (down $140 yesterday and down $63 on Friday), but are rebounding a bit this morning – up $30.  The hope is that grains will not run into additional selling as traders seek ways to pay margin calls from these losses. 

 

As you can hear from your local news programs – the Midwest forecast is wet this week.  The extended forecasts for the Midwest are mixed with the American model calling for a dry week next week while the EU model shows it as wet. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1673

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A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/15/2013

4-15-13 AM Comments

Monday, April 15, 2013, 7:44 am
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl

Happy Tax Day to Everyone!

Markets are all lower due to longer range forecasts that look drier (although this week looks wet) and more importantly, outside markets that are all negative. Crude oil, metals, and equities all lower in early trade. Chinese GPD also lower than expected.

Western corn belt feeling much better about soil moisture with good rainfall the last 10 days. Although the rain has been a good thing, we do need a window to get corn in the ground. Planting progress will be out this afternoon and will be minimal, especially if compared directly to the rapid pace of last year.

Corn/Soy both down 10-12 cents in early trade.

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/12/2013

Morning Comments 4/12/2013

Friday, April 12, 2013, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets are higher this morning led by wheat. The USDA finally confirmed rumors of China purchasing US origin wheat which has provided some support to the corn market. Despite negative outside markets, commodities have managed to rally overnight on seemingly all weather news. Not only has the cold and wet weather slowed planting efforts here in the US but China is seeing similar conditions with neither of our forecasts expecting conditions to improve in the next 10 days. Monday will be the first US corn planting estimates which is expected to come in near the average of 5% but well behind last year’s record pace of 17%. Weather models suggest another weather event similar to this weeks to occur the first part of next week with snow expected in the Northern Plains and sub-freezing temperatures to reach as far south as Oklahoma.

Argentine bean harvest is estimated to be 24% complete as the weather has allowed harvest to progress without any delays. Talk of demand spurring up out of Europe has provided the soybean market a little support this morning. Brazil announced they will bump their biodiesel blend up to 10% soy oil from the current rate of 7% using an additional 300k MT.

Outside markets are taking a beating this morning on unfriendly economic data. Currently crude is down $2.01, metals down, equities down, and the dollar higher.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1670

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/11/2013

AM Comments 04/11/13

Thursday, April 11, 2013, 8:20 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The weekly export sales report was out this morning – soybean exports came in above estimates for old crop sales, below estimates for new crop. Corn estimates fell with the range of guesses, so overall it is pretty neutral. 

The markets are being led higher by tighter spreads (nearby months stronger than deferred months).  This, along with a strong basis - reflects a lack of farmer selling.

The 10 day forecast is still showing an active weather pattern – great for soil moisture and potential crop size but not so great for timely planting.  The long term forecasts do show temps warming back up into the last week of April.  Once this crop is in the ground, one can expect old and new crop prices to drop thanks to the added soil moisture and friendly long term weather models.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1668

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/10/2013

AM Comments 04/10/13

Wednesday, April 10, 2013, 8:17 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The USDA will be giving us their April S&D report at 11am this morning.  The market will likely be chopping around waiting for that for the next couple hours.  The line item in that report that traders will be watching closely is the feed usage number.  The quarterly stocks number from a couple weeks ago indicated feed usage in the second quarter was 30% below last year’s pace… will the USDA also reflect that conservative rate?  We will be a lot smarter after 11am.  If the report is friendly, it may give farmers an opportunity to sell old and new crop corn/soybeans as “normal weather” could still be bearish long term to prices…

EAI will release their weekly Ethanol production and stocks numbers today as well.  Traders are expecting ethanol production to increase, with stocks decreasing.  Ethanol margins have had four straight weeks with positive margins – some of the best margins since 2011. This helps support the thought that production will start to ramp up.

Opening calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans steady to 1c lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1666

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/9/2013

AM Comments 04/09/13

Tuesday, April 9, 2013, 7:54 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Our markets are steady/mixed this morning with corn a touch higher and soybeans a touch lower.  The USDA’s monthly S&D report is out tomorrow morning at 11am, which could/should keep our markets steady/choppy today.  Below are the trade estimates for ending stocks (aka carryout) for the 12/13 crop year on tomorrow’s report:

·         Corn

o   812mb (was 632mb in the March S&D)

·         Soybeans

o   136mb (was 125mb in the March S&D)

Anything too far above or below those numbers will cause a reaction in price. 

Other than that, it looks to be a quiet day.  The extended weather forecasts look a little wetter than they did yesterday, both the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day outlooks show ‘normal temps’ and ‘above normal precip’ for most of the corn belt.

Opening Calls (8:30am open):

Corn steady to 3 cents higher

Soybeans steady to 3 cents lower

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1664