Good Morning!
Overnight markets a little higher on thoughts that maybe yesterday’s down move was a bit overdone, although price rally potential may be capped by overall good spring weather for planting, and trade reports of additional Brazilian beans and Argentine sbmeal imports to the eastern half of the US. Today’s weather looks pretty good everywhere. 2 fronts to pass thru the Midwest this week, first one tomorrow then second over the weekend. Both carry pretty good chances of rain. National corn planting progress was 6% yesterday, trade was expecting 10-12%. Not concerning yet, as with good conditions nearly half the US corn crop can be sowed in a week. Other news light this am, equities slightly higher and energies slightly lower. Re-opening grain calls will be higher….corn up 3-4 and soybeans up 3-5.
Jon Setterdahl
Showing posts with label Jon Setterdahl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jon Setterdahl. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Friday, January 10, 2014
USDA Report Recap for January 10th, 2014
USDA Report Recap
Friday, January 10, 2014, 11:45 amSubmitted by: Jon Setterdahl
USDA quarterly stocks and monthly supply/demand report highlights are as follows. CORN: production at 13.925Bln as national yield declined to 158.8bpa. Trade was expecting a 14Bln number. Carryout this year pegged at 1.631Bln with feed raised 100Mln and ethanol raised by 50Mln. The Dec 1 corn stocks number was 10.4Bln. The report is moderately friendly the corn market, particularly because most were expecting a crop size of 14Bln and a carryout of around 2Bln. BEANS: not nearly as surprising with most numbers within expected ranges. Production at 3.289Bln with slight yield increase to 43.3bpa. Carryout left unchanged at 150Mln, as exports were raised 20Mln and domestic crush up 10Mln. Dec 1 stocks at 2.150Bln.
So to recap, corn moderately bullish and establishes short-term price support. Beans as expected and short-term direction dependent on S.American weather and US export pace.
Tuesday, September 3, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 9/3/2013
9-3-13 AM Comments
Tuesday, September 3, 2013, 8:00 amSubmitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Good Morning! Overnight markets were higher with weather the reason. Dry areas of the midwest remain dry and temporary cool-down is followed be heat returning by late this week. Corn harvest progressing from south to north, with areas in Missouri and Illinois probably to start this week. For the most part, corn yields from these areas south are very good with many reports in excess of 200bpa on a dry basis. Outside market influences pretty quiet to start the week….Syria situation has energy indices somewhat edgy.
Opening grain calls this am: corn up 4-6, soybeans up 35-45
Friday, August 30, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/30/2013
AM Comments 08/30/13
Friday, August 30, 2013, 8:00 amSubmitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!
Our markets were weaker last night, the weather forecasts are finally cooling down and there are potential rains in the forecast – although chances are low. We may walk in here Tuesday (Monday is the Labor Day holiday) with higher markets if these rain chances fizzle out. With this being a three-day weekend you can expect a choppy trade ahead of it as traders attempt to remove risk from their positions.
The early harvest reports out of the Southern Corn Belt and the Delta are still impressive. The irrigated corn in the boot heel of Missouri is reportedly running between 215 and 250 bpa. Non irrigated corn will start soon and is expected to be in the 175bpa range. The cash inverse is starting to slip away as new crop bushels start to move North.
Opening Calls
Corn down 1 to 3 cents
Soybeans down 10 to 12 cents
Thursday, August 29, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/29/2013
8-29-13 AM Comments
Thursday, August 29, 2013, 7:57 amSubmitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Overnight markets a bit lower as forecasts reducing heat and adding rainfall for early next week. This week has been quite the flip-flop affair for prices, almost solely due to weather. This weather spell has undoubtedly hurt yield potential in the western corn belt, but on the other hand….has sped up crop maturity for all. Corn harvest from KY south is happening now with most yield reports very good down there. Something over 1,000 barges of southern new crop corn, mainly from AR and LA, will be making their way NORTH very soon for Midwest corn milling and ethanol plant destinations. Weekly export sales were good for new crop grain, however old crop had net cancellations of business.
Opening calls a little lower, but will watch mid-day forecasts closely.
Have a good day.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/21/2013
8-21-13 AM Comments
Wednesday, August 21, 2013, 7:57 amSubmitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Good Morning! Markets were higher last night on weather. Forecasts of limited rain in the WCB and heat through next week are the reason. That’s really it this morning….not much else in play for the time being. Pro Farmer crop tour resumes today in parts of IA and IL, trade will watch for those reports.
Calls: corn 5-7 higher; soybeans 20-22 higher
Monday, April 15, 2013
A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 4/15/2013
4-15-13 AM Comments
Monday, April 15, 2013, 7:44 am
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Happy Tax Day to Everyone!
Markets are all lower due to longer range forecasts that look
drier (although this week looks wet) and more importantly, outside markets that
are all negative. Crude oil, metals, and equities all lower in early trade.
Chinese GPD also lower than expected.
Western corn belt feeling much better about soil moisture
with good rainfall the last 10 days. Although the rain has been a good thing, we
do need a window to get corn in the ground. Planting progress will be out this
afternoon and will be minimal, especially if compared directly to the rapid pace
of last year.
Corn/Soy both down 10-12 cents in early trade.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 2/21/2013
2-21-13 AM Comments
Thursday, February 21, 2013, 8:10 amSubmitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Mainly 2 discussion points this morning….first is numbers from USDA Feb Outlook meeting in D.C. Corn planted acreage projected at 96.5 Mln and resulting crop size a whopping 14.530 Bln bu. Obviously they are using a very good yield number to arrive at that production. Soybean acreage estimated at 77.5 Mln and resulting crop size of 3.405 Bln. These sort of numbers would not be entirely unexpected from this outlook meeting…they always use pretty good yields (citing genetics, farming practices, etc) this early in the year. Never mind the current drought monitor maps. The full balance sheets will be out tomorrow.
Other issue is weather….parched areas in the west to get a lot of rain/snow with this current system, and also talk of another less potent precip event early next week. Maybe the weather pattern is shifting??
Outside market factors has crude oil down again this morning (when will gas prices follow?) and the US $ slightly higher. Weekly export sales will be out tomorrow and weekly ethanol data should be out this morning. This will be looked at closely since some idled ethanol plants have come back on line recently.
Morning markets thus far are slightly lower in both corn and beans.
FC Morning Market Commentary for February 21, 2013
Mainly 2 discussion points this morning….first is
numbers from USDA Feb Outlook meeting in D.C. Corn planted acreage
projected at 96.5 Mln and resulting crop size a whopping 14.530 Bln bu.
Obviously they are using a very good yield number
to arrive at that production.
Soybean acreage estimated at 77.5 Mln and
resulting crop size of 3.405 Bln.
These sort of numbers would not be
entirely unexpected from this outlook meeting…they always use pretty
good yields (citing genetics, farming practices,
etc) this early in the year. Never mind the current drought monitor
maps. The full balance sheets will be out tomorrow.
Other issue is weather….parched areas in the west
to get a lot of rain/snow with this current system, and also talk of
another less potent precip event early next week. Maybe the weather
pattern is shifting??
Outside market factors has crude oil down again
this morning (when will gas prices follow?) and the US $ slightly
higher. Weekly export sales will be out tomorrow and weekly ethanol
data should be out this morning. This will be looked
at closely since some idled ethanol plants have come back on line
recently.
Jon Setterdahl
Farmers Cooperative Company
Ames, Iowa, USA
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 2/19/2013
2-19-13 AM Comments
Tuesday, February 19, 2013, 8:05 amSubmitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Markets back trading today following the 3-day weekend. South American precip over the weekend was scattered in Argentina, providing soybeans a reason to be higher this morning. Private crop estimates edging higher for Brazilian soybeans and Argentine corn.
Other news is fairly light. Ag Outlook Forum taking place in D.C. this week, with ’13-’14 crop balance sheets expected to be released sometime late week. India announced the intention to sell 5.0 MMT of feed wheat from gov’t reserve stocks in the next few months.
US Midwest preparing for mid-week storm to provide much-needed moisture to western corn and wheat growing areas.
Thus far corn is steady and soybeans are up 10-20 cents
Thursday, February 7, 2013
FC Market Commentary for February 7, 2013
Weekly export sales out this morning with a continuation of the recent trends….disappointing numbers on corn, strong numbers on soybeans.
Corn sales reported at 6.6 Mln bu and soybeans at 32.9 Mln bu. Overnight markets were lower in both corn and beans, but old crop beans are now higher after the sales figures came out. South American weather pretty much unchanged overnight, scattered showers but areas in Argentina are still under stress. Private estimate raised production estimates for both Brazilian soybeans and corn this morning….this is further weighing on the corn market.
Monthly USDA supply/demand report will be out tomorrow at 11am. Most expecting a larger corn carryout, given continued dismal export pace and slowed ethanol demand.
Early am markets: corn down 4-5 cents; old crop soybeans up 2-4 cents, new crop beans steady.
Jon Setterdahl
Farmers Cooperative Company
Ames, Iowa, USA
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
FC Market Commentary for February 5, 2013 pm
The corn market is acting tired so far this week. Monthly USDA supply/demand report is out this Friday and it feels like the market is anticipating a slightly larger carryout, due to lower demand from the export and ethanol sectors. Weekly corn export inspections this week were a 30-year low, reflecting just how poor world demand is for US corn at these prices. Additionally, trade talk of more Brazilian corn offered to the SouthEast US feed markets as well.
Soybeans managed to close higher as South American weather is still a concern. Logistics problems (transportation/port strikes) are a safe bet going forward as Brazil and Argentina together prepare for a record large soybean harvest.
Producer selling thus far this week is extremely light.
Jon Setterdahl
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