FC Morning Market Commentary for December 31, 2013

Good morning!

The big January S&D and production report is only 7 trading sessions away and traders seem to still be prepping for a bearish report.  Both corn and soybeans were weaker last night, with soybeans once again leading the charge down on improved South American weather. It is raining today across central and northern Argentina – which is making the sell button a little too easy to press today.

Other than that it looks to be a quiet end to 2013.  There has been some light farmer selling as year-end tax guys weigh in on their situations.  The Chicago Board of trade will close today at its normal time of 1:15pmand not reopen until 8:30am on Thursday. 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2 cents

Soybean down 4 to 6 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

FC Morning Market Commentary for December 27, 2013

Good morning!

Our markets are called higher this morning thanks to an almost shockingly strong export sales report.  Corn export sales were big – well above the highest estimate and soybean sales were also decent, at the top end of the range of guesses.  Huge soybean oil sales in there as well.  This could temporarily stop the negative export chatter (corn rejections, soybean cancellations, etc.) as it appears business was good last week.  The next two weekly export sales reports could appear disappointing with the holidays taking some people out of the trade.

There isn’t much else to go on today.  Later this morning the weekly ethanol production report will be out and is expected to show production slightly lower than it was last week.  Weather in Argentina looks to be improving next week with temps cooling off (into the upper 80’s and 90s) and some chances for moisture. The 11-15 day forecast for them however looks below normal for precip and above normal for temps, so we will need to watch that.

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 6 to 10 cents higher

Have a great day!

FC Visits Hawkeye Community College

Last week Holly Knobbe, FC's Talent Manager, visited Hawkeye Community College, located just outside Waterloo, Iowa. While there Ms. Knobbe discussed the numerous career opportunities with Farmers Cooperative Company with the College's agriculture students. 

Shown here are Agriculture students of the Hawkeye Community College along with their instructor, Dave Grunklee. 

FC Morning Market Commentary for December 26, 2013

Good morning!

There was not an overnight trade session last night, so when the markets open at 8:30am this morning it will be the first time they have traded since noon on Tuesday.  Opening calls vary, but most of them are looking for a steady/weaker tone to start the day and they blame good weather in South America.  No surprises there.

It was reported this morning that China has turned away around 2,000 MT of U.S. dried distillers grains and that more rejections are expected in the coming weeks.  Traders had been nervous this would happen after hearing not long ago that they would start testing it.  China is the world’s largest buyer of U.S. DDGs, accounting for about 40% of all DDG exports last year.  This situation is a little tricky – when the corn was rejected they were mostly able to switch the cargoes to other destinations but with DDG’s, they are not widely used in the rest of Asia in their animal feed which makes it difficult to figure out where these rejected cargoes will go.  In a positive note, this should support soybean meal and keep domestic soybean crush margins firm. 

Also just for fun, I ran the math:  2,000 MT = 4,409,200 lbs = around 80 truckloads.  Doesn’t sound like much when you say it that way…

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans mixed

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

FC Morning Market Commentary for December 23, 2013

It is a quiet start to the holiday shortened week.  Remember, the grain markets close at noon tomorrow

 and don’t open up again until 8:30am on Thursday.  The markets were a little higher last night and it’s all weather – specifically the weather in Argentina.  Still looks hot and dry down there in the short term, with chances of rain in the extended models. To put their weather in perspective, they are coming up on the corn pollination window right now and it’s 100 degrees outside... Nothing that can’t be fixed with a little rain, but still concerning.

Transportation issues here in the U.S. have some traders nervous about our ability to keep the export pace up in soybeans which could keep a lid on bean prices.  Barge freight costs have risen thanks to low water levels and cold weather.  Also the railroads have struggled this crop year to find available engines, cars and crews to run grain.  This has driven the cost of rail freight to astronomical levels.  Why have they struggled?  Well there are a number of reasons, but a big one is that in 2009 there were 10,000 rail carloads of crude oil transported in the US, today that number is up to 400,000 carloads! Most of that (as you may know) is thanks to the Bakken wells in North Dakota.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans steady to up 2c

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner

FC Afternoon Market Commentary for December 19, 2013

The corn market found  a little support this morning with export sales data above the average trade estimate. Last week US corn sales were reported at 32.6 mln bu bringing the yearly total to 1.084 bln bushels or 75% of the USDA export forecast. This morning the USDA announced 2 new corn sales, one to an unknown destination of 127 kmt and one to Korea of 130 kmt. Funds have been buyers of corn the past couple of days, taking profits before they close the books on the year which has helped drive corn prices higher.

Weather in Argentina looks better with weather models improving the chances for rain over the next 10 days while the hot spell that is currently setting in isn’t expected to last quite as long as initially indicated. Export sales data was rather disappointing for the soybean complex coming in at 15.3 mln bushels after sales to unknown destinations were cancelled. The market is stuck between concerns of Chinese cancellations and South American weather that is changing by the day.

Outside markets were mixed with crude higher while the dollar and equities also traded higher. Yesterday the Fed announced they will begin to reduce their bond buying program. The dollar has rallied on this news driving the DOW to all-time highs. Some of yesterday’s sell off was partially attributed to fund money moving from commodities to equities.

Kyle Lehman

FC Morning Market Commentary for December 19, 2013

December 19, 2013

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and sales were solid for corn, but soybean sales were a little disappointing, coming out below the estimates.  Yesterday was not a good day for the soybean chart, with beans making new highs for the move only to close (sharply) lower at the end of the day.  Soybeans have been in a 30-cent range this month, it will be interesting to see if that range holds – or if we fall out the bottom.

Other than that – quiet.  The U.S. and China will hold their latest round of trade talks this week, you can expect the recent U.S. corn rejections by China to be on the agenda.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 5 to 8 cents lower

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

Morning Grain Market Commentary for 12/13/2013

Morning Comments 12/13/2013

Friday, December 13, 2013, 8:26 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

The markets continue to slide lower on carryover weakness from yesterday’s trade. Soybeans are leading the way lower (down 10c) on fears of reduced demand from China due to new cases of bird flu. With demand slowing and margins being squeezed the trade expects some cancellations from China in the next 4-6 weeks. Corn futures remain under pressure after a group of 10 bipartisan senators proposed a bill to completely eliminate the corn ethanol mandate. Ethanol margins remain at 2 year highs and production should remain at capacity even with all the news of RFS reductions/eliminations. The world seems to be swimming in wheat confirmed by last week’s USDA S&D. Wheat prices have fallen 7% in December which is weighing on the corn market.

 

The US weather looks to warm up early next week before another cold wave moves through. Although most of Iowa will still remain below freezing temps upper 20’s will be a small relief to the single digit highs we have seen lately. South American weather is expected to be hot and dry over the next 10 days which should allow late plantings to finish up. The 11-15 day forecast follows up with some chances of decent rain.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1947

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 12/10/2013

AM Comments 12/10/13

Tuesday, December 10, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The USDA will release their December S&D report at 11am today – the market looks like it will stay relatively quiet up until then.  The trade is expecting demand increases for both corn and soybeans, lower the projected carryouts of each.  Typically this report doesn’t have much fireworks to it as they tend to wait until January when the final U.S. production numbers are released.

 

Weather in South America still looks good, the forecast almost couldn’t be any better in the short term.  Brazil’s government is now forecasting a record soybean production, 90.3MMT, which is 2.3MMT higher than the estimate the USDA gave us in November.  If this crop holds in there, it will likely be a pretty heavy anchor on bean prices come Feb/March forward, if not sooner. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans mixed, up 1c to down 1c

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1940

 

 

 

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 12-4-2013

AM Comments 12/04/13

Wednesday, December 4, 2013, 8:34 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

It was a quiet overnight session and is expected to be a pretty quiet day session as well.  There is a lack of fresh news in the marketplace to discuss. Stats Canada did come out with their production numbers this morning showing that Canadian farmers produced a record 37.53 million tons of wheat in 2013, up 38% from last year and also above market guesses.  Canola production was also above guesses which is putting pressure on the soybean market.

 

Other than that – quiet.  Weather in South America still looks good and winter is coming here in the U.S. with the two week forecast showing below normal temps and normal to above normal precip. 

 

Currently

Corn is down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans are down 3 to 5 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1934