FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 11/4/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 11/04/14

Tuesday, November 4, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The corn and soybean markets are lower this morning with the charts (especially soybeans) starting to turn ugly as the market quickly retreats off of recent highs.  A lot of chatter this morning about the energy markets, particularly crude oil.  Crude oil was down $3/barrel at one point last night, pushing to the lowest levels we have seen since 2009!  This type of action seems to have put all commodity futures on the defensive.

 

Another input into last night’s lower prices was the release of private crop estimates yesterday afternoon which confirmed ideas that production/yields will be big (a 14.7 billion bushel corn crop and a bean crop that is over 4 billion bushels).  Another private company is set to release their estimates at 10am today.  These numbers are all being published this week because the USDA will be out this coming Monday with the November S&D report. 

 

Weather… although there are spotty rains in parts of the corn belt the general feeling is that the weather is still favorable for harvest and over the next 7-10 days harvest should continue to progress.   

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 5 to 7 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2320

 

FC Market Commentary 21 Apr 14

The markets started Easter Sunday higher last night – mainly in soybeans – but gave way to selling pressure and this morning we now see corn, beans and wheat all in the red.  The talk overnight was that risk premium was being taken out of the markets as the situation in Ukraine seems to have improved.  Leaders from the U.S., EU, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement last week, at least making an attempt at a peaceful resolution.  This is allowing the grain markets to relax a bit. 

This afternoon, after our markets close, we will get the weekly planting progress report.  The market is expecting corn planting to be somewhere around 10% complete.  This is close to our average and will confirm the market sentiment that planting, so far, is “normal”.  Between good prospects for the 14/15 crop and Ukraine improving – corn has struggled to stay positive lately.  Last night May corn traded to the lowest level since the March stocks report…

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 25 @ 103.12) along with a higher US Dollar (138.06 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 8).

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary for March 13, 2014

Good morning!

The markets were steady to higher last night and the weekly export sales report that was released at 7:30am did very little to change that.  Corn sales and bean sales were both near the bottom range of guesses - -so no major surprises there.  The rumors this week (and the reason for the sharp decline in soybean prices) have center around sales cancellations.  If those rumors are true – they will be reflected in next week’s report.

The wheat market continues to find strength thanks to fund buying and continuing problems in Ukraine.  This also help keep the corn market propped up.  Crimea will vote this Sunday on whether or not to leave the Ukraine for Russia, meanwhile Ukraine’s parliament voted to create a 60,000 member National Guard to help bolster the country’s defenses. 

Outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 36 @ 98.36) along with a lower US Dollar (139.41 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 30).

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 1 to 4 cents higher

Have a great day!

 Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Afternoon Market Commentary for January 2, 2014

Soybeans closed 22 cents lower to a six week low after beneficial rain fell across Argentina and Brazil over the past couple of days helping to alleviate concern for crop stress in areas that were hot and dry last week. DDG cargoes have dropped roughly $30/ton in the wake of China rejections which could pressure soybean meal prices going forward. After trading through the 200 day moving average the next support for March soybeans sits around $12.60 on the board and beyond that it would seem destined for the harvest low of $12.48.

Corn futures couldn’t hold on to early session gains with weaker soybeans and wheat dragging them 1 ½ cents lower. Corn futures tested key support at the contract low of $4.1850 with the expectations that next week’s USDA report will show a larger crop size and carryout. US corn production numbers have increased from the November S&D report to the final report in 7 of the last 10 years while final corn demand has been below the USDA December forecast 6 of the last 7 years.

Outside markets were bearish with crude lower while the dollar traded sharply higher. China’s PMI declined for the first time in 6 months to 51.0 from 51.4 indicating an economic slowdown could be ahead. Keep in mind any number above 50.0 represents a growing economy however the reduction from 51.4 represents it’s growing slower than the previous month.

Kyle Lehman

FC Morning Market Commentary for December 23, 2013

It is a quiet start to the holiday shortened week.  Remember, the grain markets close at noon tomorrow

 and don’t open up again until 8:30am on Thursday.  The markets were a little higher last night and it’s all weather – specifically the weather in Argentina.  Still looks hot and dry down there in the short term, with chances of rain in the extended models. To put their weather in perspective, they are coming up on the corn pollination window right now and it’s 100 degrees outside... Nothing that can’t be fixed with a little rain, but still concerning.

Transportation issues here in the U.S. have some traders nervous about our ability to keep the export pace up in soybeans which could keep a lid on bean prices.  Barge freight costs have risen thanks to low water levels and cold weather.  Also the railroads have struggled this crop year to find available engines, cars and crews to run grain.  This has driven the cost of rail freight to astronomical levels.  Why have they struggled?  Well there are a number of reasons, but a big one is that in 2009 there were 10,000 rail carloads of crude oil transported in the US, today that number is up to 400,000 carloads! Most of that (as you may know) is thanks to the Bakken wells in North Dakota.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans steady to up 2c

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner

FC Morning Market Commentary for September 10, 2013

Good morning!

Today looks similar to yesterday with both corn and soybeans weaker to kick things off. The G/E ratings

released yesterday afternoon did not drop as much as anticipated (only a 2% drop in both corn and soybeans) which is probably helping the market work lower.  With mostly above normal temps predicted for the next 10 days frost threats are not a topic of conversation at this time. 

The weather outlook looks to bring a couple cold fronts across the belt over the next 10 days.  The first cold front isn’t expected to bring much rain but the second one could bring decent moisture early next week.  This rain is probably too little too late but with the late planted soybeans, there could be a little boost to the poor bean yields in the Western Belt.

The USDA did not release harvest progress numbers yesterday, but a few states did report. Texas and Mississippi are 60% harvested on corn, Louisiana is 97%, Tennessee 72%, Georgia 69% and Alabama 17%. 

The USDA’s September S&D report will be out Thursday, it is starting to feel like they won’t be making any significant changes to crop projections, even though Iowa soybean yields are regressing.  Don’t be surprised if they punt and wait another month to see yield reports before revising crop sizes. 

With news wires reporting that Syria is accepting a deal from Russia to turn over their chemical weapons – some of the outside markets are a little volatile.  Crude oil is currently down over $2/barrel which could help keep a lid on any rallies in our grain/oilseed commodities today. 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 3 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

 Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary for September 9, 2013

Good morning!

There is very little news to go on this morning, the weather outlook is actually a touch negative with these nearby high temps looking like the last push of heat (finally) we will see for a while.  It is also hard to get bulled up about a potential early frost when the local news calls for triple digit highs here in central Iowa.  But, in spite of that the soybean market inched higher overnight on what was likely a bit of short covering.  These higher soybean prices may falter as we get further into the day.

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil a bit lower, the $US a bit lower and the US stock market called higher.  Weekly crop ratings will be out this afternoon with the trade already pricing in a 3-5% decline in soybeans and a 1-2% decline in corn.  Anything less than that and you can expect lower markets, if the drop in G/E ratings is more severe – expect a rally.  Those numbers come out later this afternoon (after the close).

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans 3 to 5 cents higher

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain