FC Morning Market Commentary for 8/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/28/2014

Thursday, August 28, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Export sales released this morning at 7:30 failed to cause any fireworks before the 7:45 break. Old crop corn and soybeans sales were both net negative (due to cancelations) and within market expectations. What’s got the market a bit excited is new crop export sales: new crop corn sales were on the upper range of estimates and beans were higher than the trade expected. The variable to watch today is what is happening in Eastern Europe. Wheat futures are higher on reports of increased tension and Russian troops entering Eastern Ukraine. Unless we know Black Sea exports are being affected, this will be a short term supportive input.

 

Weather looks to be wet for the next few weeks. Plenty of precipitation is in the forecast for the Western Corn Belt with some colder weather to follow. However, there is no threat of frost forecasted at through at least mid-September. NOAA projects a warmer-than-average winter (Nov-Dec-Jan) is on the way, which would be nice after what we had last winter.

 

Markets opening:

Corn 1 to 2 cents higher

Beans 1 to 3 higher

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2245

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/6/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 8/6/2014

Wednesday, August 6, 2014, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Nice rain is falling throughout Western Iowa and will move east as the day progress, bringing moisture to regions that haven’t seen much for a few weeks. Corn and soybean futures traded mixed overnight with corn finding some early spillover support from wheat; there are some renewed rumors of a Russian invasion into Ukraine. Next Tuesday, the USDA will release updated crop production numbers. Average trade guesses are 170.2 bpa corn yield (14.250 bln bushels produced) and 45.2 bpa soybean yield (3.815 bln bushels produced). The corn estimate is a lot higher from last month while soybeans are just a touch higher.

 

Have a good day!

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/market-commentary/?CommentaryID=2219

 

FC Market Commentary 21 Apr 14

The markets started Easter Sunday higher last night – mainly in soybeans – but gave way to selling pressure and this morning we now see corn, beans and wheat all in the red.  The talk overnight was that risk premium was being taken out of the markets as the situation in Ukraine seems to have improved.  Leaders from the U.S., EU, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement last week, at least making an attempt at a peaceful resolution.  This is allowing the grain markets to relax a bit. 

This afternoon, after our markets close, we will get the weekly planting progress report.  The market is expecting corn planting to be somewhere around 10% complete.  This is close to our average and will confirm the market sentiment that planting, so far, is “normal”.  Between good prospects for the 14/15 crop and Ukraine improving – corn has struggled to stay positive lately.  Last night May corn traded to the lowest level since the March stocks report…

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 25 @ 103.12) along with a higher US Dollar (138.06 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 8).

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Soybeans down 7 to 10 cents

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Comments

Good morning!

The soybean markets continues to impress with another rally overnight – making new contract highs (old crop).  The big bullish story yesterday (which appeared to carry-through into the night session) was the NOPA crush report which showed a surprisingly large amount of beans crushed last month.  12 million bushels more than we crushed in Feb and 16mb more than we crushedlast March.  The market is trying to ration demand and this report shows demand may actually be increasing – hence the higher prices.

The issues in Russia/Ukraine have not gone away, in fact they may be escalating.  Of course no one really knows what will come of this but tomorrow officials from U.S./EU/Russia/Ukraine are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland to discuss possible resolutions. 

The weather for the US corn belt is showing a rise in temperatures with normal to above normal precip in the 6-10 day forecasts (maps below).  This should help get corn planting rocking and rolling in many areas.  Some private analysts are predicting (based on the weather forecasts) that the US will be 40% done with corn planting by the end of April which would be a great start!

Corn prices seem to be stuck – soybean and wheat prices have been firm, corn demand has been strong, Ukraine is still having issues – all of this should be friendly to corn prices.  However, improved planting weather and the ability of the US farmer to plant corn faster than he ever has before has the market cautious about getting caught long. 

The outside markets are higher this morning with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 103 @ 104.78) along with a higher US Dollar (138.37 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 72).

Opening calls

Corn steady to down 1c

Soybeans 8 to 15 cents higher (led by old crop)

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

---

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 4/15/2014

AM Comments 04/15/14

Tuesday, April 15, 2014, 7:58 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Most of the news we are reading this morning is the same type of news you can get from your local news station: it is all about Ukraine/Russia.  Tensions are escalating, Ukraine has now deployed their military for anti-terrorism operations as pro-Russian militants take over police stations in Eastern Ukraine.  Russia is of course playing the same card they did with the Crimean Peninsula – accusing Ukraine of not protecting Russian-speaking people.  If you want to tie this into grain S&D’s, the Ukraine National Bank nearly doubled their benchmark lending rate, changing it to 14.5% from 7.5%.  This is an attempt to slow inflation but their farmers are now facing a credit crunch as they try to finance their 2014 spring planting season.  Corn production estimates for the Black Sea area are already being lowered. 

The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 95 @ 103.10) along with a higher US Dollar (138.03 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 27).

Other than that, pretty quiet.  The market is unsure as of now the condition of the HRWW crop after last night’s cold temps. If you see a rally in corn/wheat later today – news regarding those freezing temps could be why…

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 3 cents

Soybeans steady to 5c higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2081

FC Morning Market Comments 04.14.14

Good morning!

The markets rebounded overnight, bouncing up from Friday’s lower close.  The wheat market seems to be leading the charge higher (up double digits) likely due to ongoing weather concerns in US wheat country along with escalating tensions in Russia/Ukraine.  Winter wheat crop conditions were already poor (at a 12-yr low) thanks to the drought in the Southern Plains – and now with freezing temps in the forecast for tomorrow morning it looks like they could get worse.

Although some of us here in Iowa will feel that the rains over the weekend were beneficial – the market is trading this cool wet weather as something that is friendly to prices as corn planting will have to wait a little while longer.  Speaking of planting, the USDA’s first planting progress report will be out this afternoon and the market is expecting the US to be just under 5% planted on corn.  This number would be pretty close to normal, and it’s probably too early to get worked up over planting delays…

Opening Calls
Corn 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans steady to 5c higher

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

FC Morning Market Commentary for March 13, 2014

Good morning!

The markets were steady to higher last night and the weekly export sales report that was released at 7:30am did very little to change that.  Corn sales and bean sales were both near the bottom range of guesses - -so no major surprises there.  The rumors this week (and the reason for the sharp decline in soybean prices) have center around sales cancellations.  If those rumors are true – they will be reflected in next week’s report.

The wheat market continues to find strength thanks to fund buying and continuing problems in Ukraine.  This also help keep the corn market propped up.  Crimea will vote this Sunday on whether or not to leave the Ukraine for Russia, meanwhile Ukraine’s parliament voted to create a 60,000 member National Guard to help bolster the country’s defenses. 

Outside markets are higher with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 36 @ 98.36) along with a lower US Dollar (139.41 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 30).

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 1 to 4 cents higher

Have a great day!

 Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

FC Mid Day Grain Market Commentary for 3/11/2014

Midday Comments 03/11/14

Tuesday, March 11, 2014, 12:49 pm
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good afternoon!

 

Feels like an old-fashioned “Turnaround Tuesday” today as the markets recover from yesterday’s losses.  Corn is rallying nicely after the European Union threatened sanctions against Russia in protest of its advancement into the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine.  This has the wheat market firmer which of course spills into corn – FYI Russia is on track to be the 5^th largest exporter of wheat this year (and Ukraine is the 6^th largest) so it’s a big deal.  Safe to say grain traders are watching this situation closely and for the time being the cure to the uneasy, nervous feelings this situation brings is to buy buy buy. 

 

Currently:

·         Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher

·         Soybeans are steady (old crop) and up 10 to 15 cents on new crop. 

o   This price action could be reflective of old crop sales cancellations?  Even rumors about that would cause people to exit the old/new bean spread and explain what we see today

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2049





 

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/6/2014

Thursday, March 6, 2014, 3:35 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

The corn and bean markets both closed higher today with corn adding a dime and beans adding 17 cents. Corn was supported by the funds as they were net buyers of around 10,000 contracts today. Ukraine exports are continuing as normal, but the people of Crimea will vote on whether to leave Ukraine and join Russia, keeping the market nervous about the situation. Weekly export numbers this morning were 59.8 mln bu. strong – we need to average 6.6 mln bu. a week to meet USDA estimates. Our Midwest weather looks to be warming up in the monthly outlook, returning closer to average.

 

Beans found support and traded near the highs achieved one week ago. Sales are currently 113 mln. bu. above USDA estimates; this fundamental landscape hasn’t changed. Domestic demand for meal remains strong, we haven’t seen any significant cancellations, and the funds were net buyers of beans, oil, and meal today. Monday’s USDA WASDE Report will give more insight on out the carryout picture could change with sales, imports, and potential cancellations.

 

Corn closed up 9 cents to $4.91

Beans closed up 17.5 cents to $14.38

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2043

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/4/2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 4:38 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn closed 13 cents higher today, adding 20 cents the last two trading sessions. The Ukrainian situation is still volatile, but Russian troops have pulled back from the border easing some pressure. Ukrainian grain exports have not yet been affected but the trade is still concerned over the situation. Informa decreased production estimates in S.A. by 1 MMT which provided additional support. Funds were net buyers on the day. Any strong upward moves in corn may be limited by strong carryout estimates.

 

Spillover support from the corn market helped prop up soybeans today with May beans closing 13 cents higher. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as crushers remain profitable. Informa decreased S.A. soybean production by 1.6 MMT. We see demand for beans remaining strong (China, domestic use) while the world supply is slightly lower (S.A. declines); the fundamentals remain favorable to beans. This can change with Chinese cancellations, but we haven't seen any significant cancellations yet.

 

Corn closed higher at $4.84 for May

Beans closed higher at $14.23 for May

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2040

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

AM Comments 03/04/14

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The grain markets had a weaker tone to them last night as news out of Russia calmed a few fears.  Russian President Putin pulled back some of his troops in SW Russia and investors feel that Russia is now backing down from the potentially large-scale military confrontation.  Putin himself said that Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula will not escalate into war: "We will not go to war with the Ukrainian people. If we do take military action, it will only be for the protection of the Ukrainian people”.  This is a fluid situation and will be watched closely.

 

So… today appears to be acting in direct opposite of yesterday’s trade – gold & crude are lower while the equity markets are all higher.  Some of the ‘risk premium’ that was added yesterday is being swiftly removed from the market.

 

Spring is inching closer… today is Fat Tuesday, the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers should see continued melting as temps warm up later this week, and Brazilian soybean harvest should be half done by the weekend. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans steady to up 3 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2039

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

AM Comments 03/03/14

Monday, March 3, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets are higher this morning, led by wheat.  The obvious story here of course comes from worries that Russia’s military action in Ukraine could slow wheat exports from the area.  Those two countries accounted for 13% of all world wheat exports last year (12/13).  This would be a big deal if true, but so far we are hearing stories out of Ukraine that there have been no disruptions (yet) in the loading of vessels and it sounds like Ukrainian farmers have been heavy sellers into this rally (sell while can maybe?).

 

Other than that it is quiet, the outside markets are a little friendly to our grains as the Russian stock market hits 5 year lows, the DOW is called lower, and money runs away from risk and into commodities such as gold, crude oil (and of course corn/wheat).

 

Opening Calls

Corn 7 to 10 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2037