FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/6/2014

Thursday, March 6, 2014, 3:35 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

The corn and bean markets both closed higher today with corn adding a dime and beans adding 17 cents. Corn was supported by the funds as they were net buyers of around 10,000 contracts today. Ukraine exports are continuing as normal, but the people of Crimea will vote on whether to leave Ukraine and join Russia, keeping the market nervous about the situation. Weekly export numbers this morning were 59.8 mln bu. strong – we need to average 6.6 mln bu. a week to meet USDA estimates. Our Midwest weather looks to be warming up in the monthly outlook, returning closer to average.

 

Beans found support and traded near the highs achieved one week ago. Sales are currently 113 mln. bu. above USDA estimates; this fundamental landscape hasn’t changed. Domestic demand for meal remains strong, we haven’t seen any significant cancellations, and the funds were net buyers of beans, oil, and meal today. Monday’s USDA WASDE Report will give more insight on out the carryout picture could change with sales, imports, and potential cancellations.

 

Corn closed up 9 cents to $4.91

Beans closed up 17.5 cents to $14.38

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2043

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2014

AM Comments 03/06/14

Thursday, March 6, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The soybean market was trading double digits higher and the corn market had rallied off of its lows to trade slightly positive when electronic trading paused at 7:45am -- both markets can thank the weekly export sales report for their strength.  This week’s report showed strong corn sales (above average trade expectations) and decent soybeans sales, right at the top end of expectations. 

 

While the export sales report is a nice boost of friendly fundamental news – other news is hard to find.  The USDA’s March S&D report will be out this coming Monday at 11am.  The trade is looking for a slight shrinking of the soybean carryout while the corn carryout looks to stay close to the same – maybe a bit bigger.  Don’t be surprised if sometime between now and the weekend this market drifts lower as we get hit with profit taking ahead of Monday’s report.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2042

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/5/2014

AM Comments 03/05/14

Wednesday, March 5, 2014, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The grain markets were mixed last night with corn trading anywhere from a penny higher to 3c lower and soybeans trading between 3c higher and 3c lower.  There isn’t much for new news out of Ukraine and so far exports out of the Black Sea area are plugging along at a normal pace. This could allow the grains to take a breather today.

 

Outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 29 @ 103.04) along with a higher US Dollar (137.30 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 18).

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 2 to 5 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2041

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/4/2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 4:38 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn closed 13 cents higher today, adding 20 cents the last two trading sessions. The Ukrainian situation is still volatile, but Russian troops have pulled back from the border easing some pressure. Ukrainian grain exports have not yet been affected but the trade is still concerned over the situation. Informa decreased production estimates in S.A. by 1 MMT which provided additional support. Funds were net buyers on the day. Any strong upward moves in corn may be limited by strong carryout estimates.

 

Spillover support from the corn market helped prop up soybeans today with May beans closing 13 cents higher. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as crushers remain profitable. Informa decreased S.A. soybean production by 1.6 MMT. We see demand for beans remaining strong (China, domestic use) while the world supply is slightly lower (S.A. declines); the fundamentals remain favorable to beans. This can change with Chinese cancellations, but we haven't seen any significant cancellations yet.

 

Corn closed higher at $4.84 for May

Beans closed higher at $14.23 for May

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2040

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

AM Comments 03/04/14

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The grain markets had a weaker tone to them last night as news out of Russia calmed a few fears.  Russian President Putin pulled back some of his troops in SW Russia and investors feel that Russia is now backing down from the potentially large-scale military confrontation.  Putin himself said that Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula will not escalate into war: "We will not go to war with the Ukrainian people. If we do take military action, it will only be for the protection of the Ukrainian people”.  This is a fluid situation and will be watched closely.

 

So… today appears to be acting in direct opposite of yesterday’s trade – gold & crude are lower while the equity markets are all higher.  Some of the ‘risk premium’ that was added yesterday is being swiftly removed from the market.

 

Spring is inching closer… today is Fat Tuesday, the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers should see continued melting as temps warm up later this week, and Brazilian soybean harvest should be half done by the weekend. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans steady to up 3 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2039

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/3/2014

Monday, March 3, 2014, 3:59 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn opened higher this morning finding support from the political unrest in Ukraine. Ukraine is estimated to be the 3^rd largest exporter of corn this year at 18.5 mmt. With 6 mmt left to export, the trade is concerned about a potential slowdown in shipments. Funds were strong buyers of commodities today as the stock market drops from the concerns in Eastern Europe. Export inspections were also supportive to corn today. Gains from this morning slowly dwindled into the afternoon, but nearby corn closed 6 cents higher at $4.64.

 

Soybeans traded mixed today with old crop closing 7 cents lower and new crop closing 2 cents higher – potentially an effect from bull spread unwinding. While Chinese crush margins are at a 2-year low, we have yet to see any significant cancellations materialize. Domestic crushers remain profitable amid recent price increases. Weather looks to be favorable in S.A., but feared logistical issues and recent declines in production estimates may provide short term support to beans.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2038

Our 1 month temperature outlook appears to be returning to normal.

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

AM Comments 03/03/14

Monday, March 3, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets are higher this morning, led by wheat.  The obvious story here of course comes from worries that Russia’s military action in Ukraine could slow wheat exports from the area.  Those two countries accounted for 13% of all world wheat exports last year (12/13).  This would be a big deal if true, but so far we are hearing stories out of Ukraine that there have been no disruptions (yet) in the loading of vessels and it sounds like Ukrainian farmers have been heavy sellers into this rally (sell while can maybe?).

 

Other than that it is quiet, the outside markets are a little friendly to our grains as the Russian stock market hits 5 year lows, the DOW is called lower, and money runs away from risk and into commodities such as gold, crude oil (and of course corn/wheat).

 

Opening Calls

Corn 7 to 10 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2037