FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/14/2014

AM Comments 03/14/14

Friday, March 14, 2014, 8:23 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

The markets are called mixed this morning on very little direct fundamental news.  Ukraine issues will keep everybody on edge today which could/should keep corn and wheat supported. There are rumors that China may now be cancelling DDG purchases from the U.S. as the soybean meal supplies are starting to make them feel ‘full’.  Other than that, so far this looks like it should be a quiet day in the trade.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 1c higher

Soybeans 2c lower to 2c higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2053

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/12/2014

AM Comments 3/12/2014

Wednesday, March 12, 2014, 8:29 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!

The markets are under some pressure this morning with nearby soybeans down 39 cents. Rumor is China has cancelled some soybean cargos from Brazil, changed some US Gulf vessels last night, and are seeking to exit other purchases. Additional pressure from fund liquidation pushed the price below last week’s low.

Corn was also lower this morning by 4 cents, but the trade is still uneasy about the Ukraine situation. The Ukrainian parliament has voted to keep the country together even if the people of Crimea vote to leave Ukraine. The uncertainty has the market a little worried about what this means for exports.

Opening calls:

Corn down 4 to 5 cents

Beans down 30 to 40 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2050

FC Mid Day Grain Market Commentary for 3/11/2014

Midday Comments 03/11/14

Tuesday, March 11, 2014, 12:49 pm
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good afternoon!

 

Feels like an old-fashioned “Turnaround Tuesday” today as the markets recover from yesterday’s losses.  Corn is rallying nicely after the European Union threatened sanctions against Russia in protest of its advancement into the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine.  This has the wheat market firmer which of course spills into corn – FYI Russia is on track to be the 5^th largest exporter of wheat this year (and Ukraine is the 6^th largest) so it’s a big deal.  Safe to say grain traders are watching this situation closely and for the time being the cure to the uneasy, nervous feelings this situation brings is to buy buy buy. 

 

Currently:

·         Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher

·         Soybeans are steady (old crop) and up 10 to 15 cents on new crop. 

o   This price action could be reflective of old crop sales cancellations?  Even rumors about that would cause people to exit the old/new bean spread and explain what we see today

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2049





 

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/6/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/6/2014

Thursday, March 6, 2014, 3:35 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

The corn and bean markets both closed higher today with corn adding a dime and beans adding 17 cents. Corn was supported by the funds as they were net buyers of around 10,000 contracts today. Ukraine exports are continuing as normal, but the people of Crimea will vote on whether to leave Ukraine and join Russia, keeping the market nervous about the situation. Weekly export numbers this morning were 59.8 mln bu. strong – we need to average 6.6 mln bu. a week to meet USDA estimates. Our Midwest weather looks to be warming up in the monthly outlook, returning closer to average.

 

Beans found support and traded near the highs achieved one week ago. Sales are currently 113 mln. bu. above USDA estimates; this fundamental landscape hasn’t changed. Domestic demand for meal remains strong, we haven’t seen any significant cancellations, and the funds were net buyers of beans, oil, and meal today. Monday’s USDA WASDE Report will give more insight on out the carryout picture could change with sales, imports, and potential cancellations.

 

Corn closed up 9 cents to $4.91

Beans closed up 17.5 cents to $14.38

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2043

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/5/2014

AM Comments 03/05/14

Wednesday, March 5, 2014, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The grain markets were mixed last night with corn trading anywhere from a penny higher to 3c lower and soybeans trading between 3c higher and 3c lower.  There isn’t much for new news out of Ukraine and so far exports out of the Black Sea area are plugging along at a normal pace. This could allow the grains to take a breather today.

 

Outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 29 @ 103.04) along with a higher US Dollar (137.30 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is higher (UP 18).

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 1 to 3 cents

Soybeans down 2 to 5 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2041

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/4/2014

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 4:38 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn closed 13 cents higher today, adding 20 cents the last two trading sessions. The Ukrainian situation is still volatile, but Russian troops have pulled back from the border easing some pressure. Ukrainian grain exports have not yet been affected but the trade is still concerned over the situation. Informa decreased production estimates in S.A. by 1 MMT which provided additional support. Funds were net buyers on the day. Any strong upward moves in corn may be limited by strong carryout estimates.

 

Spillover support from the corn market helped prop up soybeans today with May beans closing 13 cents higher. Domestic demand for soybeans remains strong as crushers remain profitable. Informa decreased S.A. soybean production by 1.6 MMT. We see demand for beans remaining strong (China, domestic use) while the world supply is slightly lower (S.A. declines); the fundamentals remain favorable to beans. This can change with Chinese cancellations, but we haven't seen any significant cancellations yet.

 

Corn closed higher at $4.84 for May

Beans closed higher at $14.23 for May

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2040

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/4/2014

AM Comments 03/04/14

Tuesday, March 4, 2014, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The grain markets had a weaker tone to them last night as news out of Russia calmed a few fears.  Russian President Putin pulled back some of his troops in SW Russia and investors feel that Russia is now backing down from the potentially large-scale military confrontation.  Putin himself said that Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula will not escalate into war: "We will not go to war with the Ukrainian people. If we do take military action, it will only be for the protection of the Ukrainian people”.  This is a fluid situation and will be watched closely.

 

So… today appears to be acting in direct opposite of yesterday’s trade – gold & crude are lower while the equity markets are all higher.  Some of the ‘risk premium’ that was added yesterday is being swiftly removed from the market.

 

Spring is inching closer… today is Fat Tuesday, the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers should see continued melting as temps warm up later this week, and Brazilian soybean harvest should be half done by the weekend. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 4 to 6 cents

Soybeans steady to up 3 cents

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2039

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

Afternoon Comments 3/3/2014

Monday, March 3, 2014, 3:59 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!

 

Corn opened higher this morning finding support from the political unrest in Ukraine. Ukraine is estimated to be the 3^rd largest exporter of corn this year at 18.5 mmt. With 6 mmt left to export, the trade is concerned about a potential slowdown in shipments. Funds were strong buyers of commodities today as the stock market drops from the concerns in Eastern Europe. Export inspections were also supportive to corn today. Gains from this morning slowly dwindled into the afternoon, but nearby corn closed 6 cents higher at $4.64.

 

Soybeans traded mixed today with old crop closing 7 cents lower and new crop closing 2 cents higher – potentially an effect from bull spread unwinding. While Chinese crush margins are at a 2-year low, we have yet to see any significant cancellations materialize. Domestic crushers remain profitable amid recent price increases. Weather looks to be favorable in S.A., but feared logistical issues and recent declines in production estimates may provide short term support to beans.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2038

Our 1 month temperature outlook appears to be returning to normal.

 

 

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 3/3/2014

AM Comments 03/03/14

Monday, March 3, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets are higher this morning, led by wheat.  The obvious story here of course comes from worries that Russia’s military action in Ukraine could slow wheat exports from the area.  Those two countries accounted for 13% of all world wheat exports last year (12/13).  This would be a big deal if true, but so far we are hearing stories out of Ukraine that there have been no disruptions (yet) in the loading of vessels and it sounds like Ukrainian farmers have been heavy sellers into this rally (sell while can maybe?).

 

Other than that it is quiet, the outside markets are a little friendly to our grains as the Russian stock market hits 5 year lows, the DOW is called lower, and money runs away from risk and into commodities such as gold, crude oil (and of course corn/wheat).

 

Opening Calls

Corn 7 to 10 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 12 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=2037

 

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 7/30/2013

Afternoon Comments 7/30/2013

Tuesday, July 30, 2013, 3:06 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Markets were mixed today with corn closing higher while soybeans closed lower. December corn has closed lower 8 of the last 9 sessions (the other was unchanged) so it is no surprise to see a minor snap back in the market like we saw today. There is probably still a little weather premium built into the market as they await to see what the weekend rains will do for eastern Nebraska and Iowa. If these rains are as advertised or more the market could pitch the weather premium as most traders will assume it’s enough rain to reach harvest. Temperatures are expected to warm slightly over the weekend but not to threatening levels.  Weather forecasts not only look favorable here but in much of the corn growing areas of China and Ukraine.

 

Soybeans traded lower on rains moving across Missouri and Illinois and the expectations of more rain for the corn belt over the weekend. Soybean development  should pick back up with warmer temps in the forecast for next week. There is still a significant long position by funds on fear of an early frost prior to soybeans reaching maturity.

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1791

FC Morning Grain Market Commentar for 7/22/2013

AM Comments 07/22/13

Monday, July 22, 2013, 7:39 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Our markets were mixed last night with soybeans higher and corn a lower.  The weather should be viewed as a friendly input this morning.  Rains over the weekend were disappointing, with Iowa being the leader on disappointment.  Almost 1/3 of the Corn Belt can be considered dry right now and wanting a rain.  The main troublesome dry areas are scattered across Iowa, NW Illinois and a few patches in Missouri. 

 

If you are wondering why corn isn’t higher on this weather news – you just need to look at the world markets.  For example, Japan bought corn over the weekend for Oct/Nov/Dec from Ukraine and Brazil.  Not from the US.  Why?  Because our new crop corn is too high priced, around $0.50 to $0.75 a bushel more expensive than other countries.  We may not have a bin busting crop across the whole U.S. but it isn’t a disaster either.  We did a great job last year of pricing ourselves out of the world markets (high prices) because we didn’t have the corn to sell -- but we will soon need to be competitive again in the world markets and today we are just too high priced on new crop corn. 

 

Opening calls

Corn 4 to 6 cents lower

Soybeans 5 to 15 cents higher

 

5-Day Precip Map:

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1779