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Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 7:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The soybean market popped higher again last night on the general slow start to harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt which is rallying spreads and basis for both soybean meal and soybeans as the soybean pipeline isn’t quite full yet. The funds also appeared to be active last night with another round of aggressive buying on what looked to be high volume (overnight volume in both Dec corn and Nov beans is estimated to be around 30,000 contracts). Farming selling of soybeans has been strong in both the US and Brazil/Argentina as most farmers are able to sift through the static and realize that these rallies are great selling opportunities in what still looks to be a great U.S. crop and overall increasing world stocks of grains/oilseeds.
Friday, October 3, 2014, 7:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The corn and soybean markets traded for most of the night session steady to a little higher but as the markets crept towards the 7:45am pause they turned lower, making new lows for the day. This was all done on very little volume, meaning it was a thin trade overnight.
There isn’t a lot of news to go on this morning except that the outside markets are making it awfully difficult to sustain rallies. The $US keeps getting stronger and stronger which is not good for commodities as this causes us to be less competitive in the world markets. Later this morning Informa (well followed private company) will be out with their crop production estimates. Remember, next Friday the 10th is when the USDA releases their Oct S&D report.
Thursday, October 2, 2014, 8:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
It looks like another quiet day in the grain markets with corn and soybean futures both trading slightly lower overnight while wheat is trading higher. Yield estimates are still on the rise as another private company was out yesterday afternoon projecting that the U.S. soybean crop will be over 4 billion bushels and the corn crop will be near 15 billion bushels. Big numbers without a doubt.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014, 7:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The markets are all slightly lower this morning on very little news. Locally here in Iowa rains have shut harvest down in some places until early next week due to waterlogged fields. (the 24 precip and current radar maps are shown to the right). The dry, windy forecast for this weekend into next week should give producers an opportunity to dry out and get back in the fields. They may want to hustle, as rain chances perk back up a touch in the extended 8-14 day outlook…
Other than that? Not much going on. There has been a lot of negative news floating around our markets lately, whether it’s big yields or a strong $US or nasty looking charts – everyone has found a reason to sell futures. To a farmer/producer it may feel like there is no end in sight to how low this can go, but to a technical chart trader – November soybeans look to find its first level of support around 8.81 (approx. 30c lower than yesterday’s close) and its next level of major support is the Dec ’08 low of 7.76 ¼. December corn futures should find support from 3.17 down to 3.10 (10c lower than yesterday’s close) and its next level of major support is the Sep ’09 & Dec ’08 lows between 2.96 ¾ and 2.90.
Thursday, September 25, 2014, 7:09 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
When corn and soybeans paused at 7:45 this morning they were both ¼ of a cent higher. So… not a lot of big news out today as you can imagine. The weather forecasts are starting to look a little more active for late next week which could throw a wrench into our harvest progress as rains move into the western belt. The temps though – they look to remain above normal in the 6-10 day maps with no signs of frost to be seen. It is worth noting that in the 8-14 day maps, temps slip back to a more normal/seasonal pattern.
Export sales were out this morning – big soybean sales and decent corn sales but this was all right in line with expectations so no surprises there. Overall for today, the wet weather might be enough to keep corn and soybeans out of the red for a while – but with crops that appear to still be growing in size… don’t be surprised with lower prices as we get closer to the end of the week.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014, 7:09 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Rain showers are moving across IA this morning which should put a temporary stop to the early harvest that had started over the last few days. The markets are bouncing a bit higher this morning, led by wheat futures. Rallies could be difficult to hold however, as both corn and soybeans are still near their contract lows and yield reports are showing no signs of slowing down.
Overall for today, the bulls are hoping that this little overnight rally is a sign that the selling will be done for a bit. It feels like with the weather stopping harvest in the West, this market might actually hold above steady today. I still worry about these prices on Friday afternoon, ahead of what looks like it could be a big harvest weekend…
Monday, September 22, 2014, 7:09 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
New contract lows are being made this morning on corn, soybeans & meal as the markets grind lower on good weather and big yield reports. The majority of the Midwest looks to stay warm and dry for the rest of week with no signs of a freeze or frost for the next couple of weeks. The yield reports coming out of Illinois are just absolutely phenomenal (a bunch of from 250 to 300+ bpa) and with the clear weather forecast – we should start to hear even more yields from across the corn belt soon. I did hear this morning that some producers in the eastern corn belt will temporarily stop harvesting corn and switch to beans soon because the beans are drying down fast. This could be the final nail in the coffin on the old crop / new crop soybean inverse as the bean pipeline starts to fill.