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Thursday, November 13, 2014, 7:11 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
After a big day yesterday that featured big market swings with prices rallying to new highs in both corn and soybeans followed by a weaker close in soybeans. Also of note corn futures are said to have traded a record daily volume yesterday with over 663 thousand contracts of corn trading hands yesterday! This high volume implies that there has been big speculative buying taking place.
The soy complex sell off can be attributed to rumors that multiple cargoes of South American soybean meal were booked to ship into the East Coast of the U.S. That, along with good farmer selling pressured prices.
Overnight the markets were mixed but are trading firmer this morning on good volume which again is likely due to new spec/fund buying. I’d expect another choppy day with both markets potentially trading both sides of yesterday’s close at some point through the day. However, if the funds are going to stand in here and buy – dips may be short term…
Tuesday, November 4, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The corn and soybean markets are lower this morning with the charts (especially soybeans) starting to turn ugly as the market quickly retreats off of recent highs. A lot of chatter this morning about the energy markets, particularly crude oil. Crude oil was down $3/barrel at one point last night, pushing to the lowest levels we have seen since 2009! This type of action seems to have put all commodity futures on the defensive.
Another input into last night’s lower prices was the release of private crop estimates yesterday afternoon which confirmed ideas that production/yields will be big (a 14.7 billion bushel corn crop and a bean crop that is over 4 billion bushels). Another private company is set to release their estimates at 10am today. These numbers are all being published this week because the USDA will be out this coming Monday with the November S&D report.
Weather… although there are spotty rains in parts of the corn belt the general feeling is that the weather is still favorable for harvest and over the next 7-10 days harvest should continue to progress.
Monday, November 3, 2014, 8:11 AM Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Pullback pressure this morning has corn and soybean futures lower at the 7:45 break after positive performances for both commodities on Friday. Soybeans are down 10 cents and corn is 4 cents lower. Harvest progress and good weather is adding some pressure too as we look at a favorable national forecast for this coming week. Expectations for tonight’s harvest progress report show us gaining some ground compared to our average pace. Corn is expected to be 61% to 65% complete (73% on average). Soybeans are expected to show us catching up to our average pace of 84%. We’ve got a chance for rain across Iowa today and another small chance on Wednesday. The 10-day has rain in the forecast for next Monday as well, but the feel is most of corn harvest should be wrapping up by then.
Soybean meal basis (the reason for our recent run in soybeans) still hasn’t broken lower. We have a lot of soybeans around, but the number of bushels that are available due to logistical hang-ups are much fewer. Once those issues get resolved, we can expect the recent premium placed on the market to disappear.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014, 8:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
It was another surprising night last night in the grain trade as the futures markets rallied sharply again on what looks to be a new round of fund money entering the market. The phones here have been steadily ringing with questions as to why?? These questions are valid and somewhat tough to answer because as we look at the fundamental picture laid out in front of us, we have record world stocks of soybeans and a record U.S. soybean crop in front of us – and rallying markets. It is hard to make sense of that for sure.
First glance, this rally yesterday appears driven by soybean meal. Strong soymeal basis in the eastern U.S. has helped push the December meal contract up to levels it hasn’t seen since June and Dec meal is now only $20 off the contract high! There are a couple reasons for this move, generally there is strong demand for meal but the slow pace to bean harvest in the East is making it hard to find. Yes, according to yesterday’s harvest progress report the US is 70% harvested on beans but Illinois is only 63%, Indiana is only 50% and Ohio is only 50% complete. Those three states are approximately 25% behind their average pace which has that part of the country struggling to fill the pipeline. The second factor that needs mentioned is the transportation situation. Meal basis in Illinois is over $50/ton higher than it is here in parts of Iowa. You would like to think you could just rail meal from West to East to take care of that gap. Unfortunately if you tried to do that today, you would pay big money for the cars AND with slow service you would struggle to get the cars in time to make a difference. So instead you panic a bit and pay whatever it takes to get the meal (hence the historic meal basis levels). This of course drives meal prices higher which takes soybean prices higher – then the funds get involved as they bail out of their short futures positions and here we are. High prices in a year where the U.S. looks to be flush with soybeans (eventually).
Weather… parts of the eastern Corn Belt had some small rains come through last night but overall the weather forecast looks excellent for harvest progress in the US for both corn and soybeans. The soy complex could feel a lot different later this week or early next as harvest finally pushes soybean onto the market.
Monday, October 27, 2014, 7:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
It was a good harvest weather weekend across the Corn Belt and the weather forecasts for the week look mostly dry which should accelerate harvest as many farmers wrap up soybeans and switch turn their full attention to corn. The weekly harvest progress report will be out this afternoon, soybeans are expected to come in at over 70% harvested while corn should be over 40% harvested.
A news story this morning that could end up being bearish to corn and soybean prices is the reelection of the Brazilian President. This is expected to weaken the Brazilian currency (the Real) which would not only make Brazilian exports more competitive but it also likely to cause an increase in farmer selling in that part of the world.
Overall expect weaker markets for today and while the markets don’t appear poised to test contract lows anytime soon – an active harvest and negative fundamentals should keep things under pressure today and potentially throughout the rest of the week.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014, 7:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The soybean market popped higher again last night on the general slow start to harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt which is rallying spreads and basis for both soybean meal and soybeans as the soybean pipeline isn’t quite full yet. The funds also appeared to be active last night with another round of aggressive buying on what looked to be high volume (overnight volume in both Dec corn and Nov beans is estimated to be around 30,000 contracts). Farming selling of soybeans has been strong in both the US and Brazil/Argentina as most farmers are able to sift through the static and realize that these rallies are great selling opportunities in what still looks to be a great U.S. crop and overall increasing world stocks of grains/oilseeds.
Friday, October 3, 2014, 7:10 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The corn and soybean markets traded for most of the night session steady to a little higher but as the markets crept towards the 7:45am pause they turned lower, making new lows for the day. This was all done on very little volume, meaning it was a thin trade overnight.
There isn’t a lot of news to go on this morning except that the outside markets are making it awfully difficult to sustain rallies. The $US keeps getting stronger and stronger which is not good for commodities as this causes us to be less competitive in the world markets. Later this morning Informa (well followed private company) will be out with their crop production estimates. Remember, next Friday the 10th is when the USDA releases their Oct S&D report.