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Thursday, November 29, 2012

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 11/29/2012

AM Comments 11/29/12

Thursday, November 29, 2012, 8:04 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Our markets are benefiting from strong equity markets this morning as the financials climb to a three-week high on newfound optimism regarding the fiscal cliff.  Investors are starting to believe that the fiscal cliff ($600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts) will be avoided.  This is giving a positive feel to the markets.

The USDA released its weekly export sales report this morning – it was somewhat disappointing in both corn and soybeans which has taken the luster off the early morning highs that were put in.  However, soybean meal exports came in well above expectations and soybean oil was within guesses – so the product side of the soy complex does have a few bullish inputs to discuss from this report. 

Also, South American weather is still offering support to soybeans.  Argentina has been dealing with flooding and as of this morning there are still heavy rains in the forecast for those areas which will continue to cause planting delays and potential replants.  These rains are also supposed to slip into Brazil – and that part of Brazil has been dry.  So there may be something in it for both the bears and the bulls today.

Corn is steady to down 2 cents
Soybeans are up 8 to 10 cents

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 11/28/2012

AM Comments 11/28/12

Wednesday, November 28, 2012, 8:33 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

Our markets are a little lower today –taking a breather from the nice rallies we have seen over the last few trading sessions.  Rumors yesterday regarding China purchasing soybeans appear to have been true as the USDA announced this morning a sale of 290k MT of US soybeans sold to China.  Between this export confirmation and continued stress in the SA weather forecast soybeans should find some support on breaks over the short term.  After all, we don’t appear to be rationing demand for U.S. soybeans at these price levels and the supposedly huge crop down in South America is anything but a guarantee.

The outside markets are on the defensive today.  The fiscal cliff talks aren’t going away – this morning crude oil is lower, gold is lower and the financial markets are lower. This makes it hard for our commodities to find willing buyers, no matter what the fundamentals tell them. 

Also the situation at the Mississippi River isn’t going away.  We now have barge operators/shippers asking President Obama to declare a state of emergency – forcing the Army Corps of Engineers to keep the waterway open at any cost.  This would likely mean they have to continue to release water from reservoirs on the Missouri River into the Mississippi (not normal for this time of year).  It could also require them to go out into the Mississippi (south of St. Louis) and remove rock formations, etc. allowing deeper drafts.

Corn is down 3 to 5 cents
Soybeans are down 5 to 7 cents

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 11/27/2012

AM Comments 11/27/12

Tuesday, November 27, 2012, 8:23 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!!

Our markets are higher again this morning, led by the soybean complex.  Weather in South America is the topic of conversation today as Argentina has turned wetter – so wet that there is standing water in some areas causing planting delays and even potential replants of soybeans.  As we know, beans can handle dry weather OK but they do not like wet feet.  This situation will delay harvest which causes concern because the world demand sector will be chomping at the bit to get those beans into the pipeline early this spring.   

The outside markets are a mixed/neutral input this morning – EU officials appear to have reached a deal with Greece, sending them another round of bailout $$.  This should/could be friendly to the markets but with the U.S. fiscal cliff still hanging over the market – rallies tend to get sold. 

Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans are 8 to 10 cents higher

Monday, November 26, 2012

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 11/26/2012

AM Comments 11/26/12

Monday, November 26, 2012, 9:13 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!!

Our markets are firmer this morning, with both corn and beans pushing up near their highs for the day.  News is limited – US weather forecasts are starting to cause a slight concern in wheat as the southern plains are still hanging on to warmer temps, keeping wheat from going dormant.  Wheat “good-to-excellent” conditions are the lowest on record (for this time of the year) so this will be something interesting to watch as the year progresses. 

The USDA reported a sale of soybean oil this morning to ‘unknown’ (probably China) which is supporting the soybean complex.  The trade is expecting big export inspections on soybeans this week, 60-70mb shipped last week is the average guess.  This train of thought is also supportive to soybeans.

Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans are 11 to 13 cents higher

Friday, November 23, 2012

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 11/23/2012

Morning Comments 11/23/2012

Friday, November 23, 2012, 8:35 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

Good morning!

Our markets are called higher after the thanksgiving holiday on a few pieces of worthy news.

The biggest influence this morning is China’s PMI (purchasing manager’s index) has risen to a 13 month high of 50.4. Most analysts indicate the figure above 50 shows an indication of economic recovery which will provide support to our grain markets. The USDA reported 20,000 mt of soybean oil sold to unknown destination (usually China).

Over the past couple of days South America has seen anywhere from 1.5-3.5” of rain, most of which fell in already wet Argentina. The maps below show the 5 day forecast (top map) and the 7 day % of normal (lower map). Flooding is being reported in low lying parts of Argentina which just adds to their already existing planting delays. Argentine soybeans are 37% planted vs. 47% last year, Corn is 50% planted vs. 62% last year. Meanwhile parts of Brazil still remain dry but forecasts are calling for some timely rains. Another headline from South America is workers from 4 soy-processing plants in Argentina have started a strike demanding the usually higher pay and improved working conditions.

Reminder markets will open at 9:30 this morning and close at noon.

Opening Calls:
Corn: up 2-4
Soybeans: up 3-6

Anhydrous Ammonia Safety Tips

Handling anhydrous ammonia can
be dangerous. Be sure to follow these
recommendations and safety tips.
This time of year it is important to handle anhydrous ammonia properly. Below are several very important safety tips and reminders about handling anhydrous ammonia. 
  • Inspect the condition of all hoses – if bulging, cracked or cut – DO NOT USE – contact FC for replacement.
  • Look for soft spots or separation from hose couplings.
  • Never secure the withdrawal hose in a way that impedes the operation of the coupling device assembly.
  • Always use a withdrawal hose long enough to allow turning, but not too long that it gets caught in the equipment.
  • Always wear proper PPE (more info)
  • If a release occurs, leave the area immediately heading into the wind.

If you have any questions or you would like to have anhydrous ammonia applied for you, please contact your local FC Agronomist.

Together we can!