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Friday, May 31, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/31/2013

Morning Comments 5/31/2013

Friday, May 31, 2013, 7:57 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman


The has been choppy and mixed overnight with corn steady to 1 higher while beans trade 7 higher. News has been scarce the past couple of days and today seems to be no different. Exports sales this morning were poor for both corn and soybeans. Old crop bean exports showed a net negative of 4 mln bushels this week which is no surprise considering the news wires of cancelations from China. The below map shows the past 7 day precipitations totals for the US indicating Iowa has been the epicenter for the recent weather events.
The one bright side to all this rain is the drought from last year has pretty well been eliminated. The US drought monitor released yesterday showed 19% of Iowa is in some sort of drought down from last week’s 35%. Many climatologists suggest next week’s drought monitor could show Iowa free of drought or at least below 5%. Once we get past the rain events Wed/Thurs next week, weather models are suggesting a new high pressure ridge for the 9-15 day period which would allow for more “normal” rainfall expectations.
 

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/29/2013

AM Comments 05/29/13

Wednesday, May 29, 2013, 7:25 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
For markets this morning you can expect to see a two-sided trade after an expectedly quiet night session last night.  Price action is being driven mainly by the wet U.S. weather.  In the near term this is giving the market a little strength as the last 14% of corn and 56% of soybeans try to get planted across the U.S. (yesterday afternoon’s planting progress report showed corn 86% planted and beans 44% planted).
 
Yesterday’s weather-fueled rally benefited greatly from the funds (buying).  The bulls we will want to see them step in and buy again today if we are to keep this price trend higher.  The weather forecasts are still a little friendly to prices with rains over the next three days with a break and then another chance for rains mid next week with another similar break before another chance of rain in the 11-15 day!  If some of the rains in the extended forecast fizzle out – these crops will get planted (or replanted) and prices should break, if not - this recent rally will stay supported.  It sounds simple, but it never ends up that way…
 
 

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/28/2013

AM Comments 05/28/13

Tuesday, May 28, 2013, 7:51 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
Our markets are higher this morning with the main topic of conversation being weather.  The wet weather across most of IA and central Illinois and Indiana will slow whatever planting is left to be done.  A good portion of Iowa (and Western Illinois) received 3+ inches of rain over the long weekend.  Now the local forecasters here in Central Iowa are calling for 3-5” of additional rain this week.
 
So where do we go from here?  Well… it will be a bit of a battle.  I would say that a large percentage of producers across the corn belt see these recent rains as beneficial to their crops.  This in many areas is viewed as a “timely rain”.  On the flip side there are parts of Iowa for example that may only be 70-80% planted on corn.  What will the producer do with those acres?
 
This afternoon the planting progress report will be out – the trade is expecting it to show the U.S. 85-90% planted on corn and 45-50% planted on soybeans.  One way to look at this is that the higher the number of acres planted, the more bearish this wet weather has been (or will be).
 
 

Friday, May 24, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/24/2013

AM Comments 05/24/13

Friday, May 24, 2013, 8:35 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
The markets feel a little more relaxed this morning after yesterday’s wild trade.  Nearby soybeans are finding weakness after hearing confirmations that the Argentine port workers strike has ended.  Soybeans are also finding technical weakness from the collapse yesterday - the aggressive sell off after making new highs yesterday has some people thinking that a short term top could be in on soybeans.
 
We are coming up on a 3-day weekend, which means weather forecasts have quite a bit of time to change before the market trades again.  Currently the market is looking at scattered showers for the Western Corn Belt starting late today and through early next week.  After that – the 8-14 day forecasts look to have above normal temps with close to normal rainfall for a good portion of the belt.  The majority of the trade views these forecasts as favorable for crop development.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/22/2013

AM Comments 05/22/13

Wednesday, May 22, 2013, 8:09 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

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Good morning!
 
Our markets are mixed this morning with old crop a little weaker while new crop is a little stronger.  The old-new inverse made new highs yesterday, but traders took profits in those spreads last night which is explains why new crop months are trading higher. 
 
This relaxation of spreads is also reflective of the strong cash movement we have seen lately – especially in soybeans.  Nearby soybean basis has collapsed over the last 48 hours as farmer-owned soybeans are hitting the market. 
 
Weather… we have a slow moving system coming through this week with light rain showers for Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin and heavier rain forecasted for Illinois.  The weather should stay active for next week as well with some showers scheduled for mid-week and next weekend.  After that however, the 11-15 day models look like above normal temps and below normal precip.  We need to be careful here as the market will start to view rainfall as “rain makes grain” instead of as a planting delay with every additional acre planted.
 

Monday, May 20, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/20/2013

AM Comments 05/20/13

Monday, May 20, 2013, 7:42 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
Our markets were mixed to higher last night on very little news.  The strength is still coming from the nearby cash trade as the markets search for ownership.  The new crop months are under a little pressure thanks to the brisk planting pace last week and non-threatening extended weather forecasts.  The planting progress report is out this afternoon with the market expecting a nice jump in U.S. acres planted to corn.  This report could/should show corn somewhere around 65% planted across the U.S.  while soybean plantings are expected to be around 20% complete.
 
Other than that, it is pretty quiet.  The outside markets are a slightly negative input so far with crude oil and gold lower while the $US is a bit stronger
http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1715
 

Friday, May 17, 2013

FC Weekly Safety Tip: Planting season safety.


Six tips to keep in mind in preparation for planting:

1. Transport Safely: Be mindful as you transport equipment on public roadways. It is recommended to provide the traveling public with many signs to warn them you’re moving more slowly than they are. Newer equipment features a wide variety of warning systems, such as flashing lights, extremity markings and slow-moving vehicle signs. It is also recommended to bringing older equipment up to date to meet modern standards.

2. Follow the Label: When applying products like herbicide, pesticide, or fungicide, it is important to read the label thoroughly. Do not overlook precautionary statements, such as those urging you to wear long sleeves or protect your eyes. Keep a book of product labels handy in case a chemical gets on your skin or in your lungs. Not keen on keeping a book? Just snap photos of the label on your phone.

3. Maintain Equipment: Keep every piece of equipment on your farm serviced. Even if you serviced a machine before putting it away last season, that does not mean it will be in perfect condition when you take it to the field this year.

4. Store Fuel Properly: Store fuel away from your machine shed. If problems arise and a fire erupts, keeping your fuel tank a safe distance away from buildings will offer the best protection.

5. Stay Healthy: Spending long hours in the field does not mean you should skip meals or rest. Without an adequate amount of sleep and proper nutrition, you will be operating at a reduced level in the fields. Follow the recommended guidelines for sleep and diet. To stay well rested, the Centers for Diease Control and Prevention suggest between seven and nine hours of sleep per night for adults. To make sure you’re eating right, use the U.S. Department of Agriculture MyPlate guide.

6.  Watch for Children: Large pieces of equipment that make a lot of noise will attract a child’s attention. Avoid carrying your children on your farm equipment.

 

Thursday, May 16, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/16/2013

AM Comments 05/16/13


Thursday, May 16, 2013, 8:24 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
 
Good morning!
 
Our markets chopped around last night and ended up trading mostly higher on very little news.  Weather forecasts look pretty much unchanged from yesterday, so there is nothing new on that front. Scattered small showers to end the week with good chances coming Sunday. 
 
The weekly export sales report was out this morning, and it looks pretty much as expected for corn, soybeans and wheat.  Nothing there to move the markets a whole lot.
 
Planters are rolling hard which is causing traders to attempt to look ahead to next Monday afternoon’s planting progress report.  Most are expecting a big jump in overall US acres planted to corn.  But how big can it be?  The report issued this past Monday had the US pegged at 28% planted versus 65% on average.  It would take a historic week of planting to get anywhere close to average.




Farmers Cooperative - Market Commentary Details

FC Agronomy Alert from Todd Claussen; The pro's and con's of using a Rotary Hoe

My father would say: “the best place for a rotary hoe is on a farm sale”.  I don’t totally agree with this, though a rotary hoe has a very limited window in any given field.

Yesterday, I was on three separate service calls regarding crusting on farms planted April 29 and 30. We recommended a rotary hoe in all three situations.

Timing is so critical with the size of the corn plants. Plants just  below the soil surface to a 1” spike is the safest and most productive range. Once plants un-furl the coleoptile leaf (round tip), the hoe can easily pull these plants from the soil. This results in pulling as many plants out of the ground as helping those under the ground hindered by a crust.

Point is this…check those farms that were planted the 26th-1st, particularly if they were too wet to be running.  103 degrees and wind on Tuesday has complicated the situation.

In addition, there are a few farms around that chilling imbibition is causing some problems. Dig some plants, the signs are:

 

-          Swollen seed with no radicle or shoot eruption

-          Corkscrew mesoctyl

-          Leafing out underground

The photo above was taken yesterday by Sheila Hebenstreit in a low, wet heavy farm planted on April 29.

The mesocotyl is hindered and is growing in a corkscrew fashion, the coleoptile sheath has erupted and the seedling is going to leaf out underground. This is in trouble.

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/15/2013

AM Comments 05/15/13

Wednesday, May 15, 2013, 8:11 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
 
Our markets were weaker last night – receiving pressure from bearish outside markets.  The $US is sharply higher again today, trading to its highest level in nearly a year.  This pressures most commodities, with gold down over $15/oz and crude oil down over $1/barrel. 
 
Other than that, it is quiet.  Weather looks pretty much unchanged from yesterday with the largest chances for rains still penciled in for Sunday.  With planters running seemingly everywhere the bulls may stay on the sidelines for today.
 
There are rumors of additional soybean vessels being imported into the East Coast of the U.S.  Eventually (June maybe?) these soybean imports will show up in a monthly USDA S&D report and could look pretty bearish.
 
 

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/14/2013

AM Comments 05/14/13


Tuesday, May 14, 2013, 8:18 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
 Our markets look to be mixed today, flirting with both sides of yesterday’s close.  Crop progress yesterday afternoon showed US corn plantings at 28% complete, the slowest pace on record.  The corn market was stronger yesterday on ideas that the weather system moving in this weekend will be an active one – now expected to bring 1-3” of rain to most of the Corn Belt.  This caused the funds to be buyers yesterday which helps explain the sharp move higher.
 For today… all eyes are on the weather, wondering if the system will weaken or strengthen or speed up or slow down.  Anything to get a better handle on the amount of corn being planted.  The one thing you can count on though is that the farmers whose fields are ready to go will be going hard.  Changes in the planting window will direct the funds and as we saw yesterday the fund money can come in (and out) in a hurry.
 
5-Day Precip Map:
 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1708

Monday, May 13, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/13/2013

AM Comments 05/13/13


Monday, May 13, 2013, 7:53 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
Our markets were called weaker last night and did open lower – only to trade higher shortly thereafter thanks to tight cash markets.  The nearby weather forecasts are probably a bearish (negative) input today.  Rain chances for the week are small (just a slight chance mid-week for southern IA and parts of IL) with warm/hot temps coming.  This should allow planting to progress nicely across the corn belt – this is setting up to be the best week of planting the U.S. has had this spring.  A large widespread system will be moving in this weekend – which means that producers that don’t have corn in the ground will likely be pushing hard to get it done this week before the rain.
 
Planting progress will be out this afternoon, the trade is expecting the US to come out at a record low of 25-30% planted with the big “I-states”, Iowa and Illinois, being the furthest behind.  This week however, could/should change that quickly.
 

Friday, May 10, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/10/2013


AM Comments 05/10/13


Friday, May 10, 2013, 8:05 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning! 
 It was a relatively quiet night last night as the trade patiently waits for the 11am USDA Supply & Demand report.  The corn market is coming under a little pressure on updated weather maps showing next week to be drier and warmer than thought yesterday.  For us here in Iowa – all eyes are on the rain chances for next Wednesday which currently look to be small and spotty.  For the producers that miss that rain, it looks like a nice planting window will open up.
 The outside markets are a mixed/bearish input this morning.  The equity markets are trading higher but the $US is also higher, helping push energies and metals lower.
 
5-Day Precip Forecast:
 
 http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1704

Thursday, May 9, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/9/2013

AM Comments 05/09/13


Thursday, May 9, 2013, 8:12 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
Our markets were mixed last night with corn steady/lower and soybeans higher.  The soybean market is fairly easy to figure out – the strength is coming from the front end of the market as domestic demand centers struggle to find willing sellers of cash soybeans.  Export demand for soybeans is non-existent as parts of the Eastern U.S. are actually importing soybeans from South America.  If those imports ever started to come into the U.S. gulf this soybean market could collapse (especially basis) in a hurry.
 
Corn on the other hand is in a bit of a pickle.  The USDA S&D report is out tomorrow with the trade expecting next year’s carryout to look BIG, as in “just under 2 billion bushels” big.  This has corn traders unwilling to get too long this market.  The corn market is also (of course) trading weather.  Yesterday it appeared the corn belt would have a nearly 7-day break in moisture next week and today that appears to be closer to 5 days.  Dec corn was 7c lower at one point last night but has since rallied back to steady. 
 
The 8-14 day forecast appears to be getting wetter (map below), meaning whatever planting window shows up next week may need to be hit hard to keep producers from planting a large percentage of their corn acres during the last week of May.  It is worth noting that so far these planting delays appear to be more of a Western Corn Belt problem.  The Eastern Corn Belt has had some solid planting take place recently and that will likely be reflected in Monday afternoon’s planting progress report.
 

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/8/2013

AM Comments 05/08/13


Wednesday, May 8, 2013, 8:11 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
The corn and soybean markets were mixed overnight with corn working lower while soybeans traded higher.  Slow farmer selling and aggressive nearby soybean basis continues to support old crop soybeans.  Corn meanwhile is struggling with extended weather forecasts.  After the system moves through the Corn Belt today through Friday the weather looks to clear up a bit for next week.  It is worth noting that there are scattered rain chances mid-week next week for areas of the Midwest.  Those that miss it should have a good chunk of corn planted.  The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts reflect “normal” precip for Iowa, whatever that means… J
 
This Friday at 11am the USDA will release the May S&D report.  It will not only project ending stocks for this summer (12/13 crop), but it will also project ending stocks for next summer (13/14 crop). 
 

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/7/2013

AM Comments 05/07/13


Tuesday, May 7, 2013, 8:10 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 Our markets were higher overnight following the weekly planting progress report that showed corn only 12% planted versus trade expectations of 15-20% planted.  Traders are already questioning the data (of course).  This pace is the slowest since 1984 – but it can change in a hurry.  Last year, for example, Iowa planted 61% of its corn crop in one week!
 The weather forecast looks a little drier for next week which is keeping somewhat of a lid on the corn market.  The funds were big sellers of corn yesterday (and eventually soybeans too) and if they are in “selling mode” again today, our markets could turn over quickly.  Generally speaking, soybean futures are seeing strength coming from the nearby cash market.  A good percentage of domestic crushers are still holding onto decent margins, keeping spreads and basis firm. 
 
5-Day Precip Map:

Monday, May 6, 2013

FC Monday Morning Alert with Todd Claussen 5-6-2013

In this issue of FC's Monday Morning Alert, Todd discusses the progress and concerns of corn planted 8-9 days ago, and concerns to be aware of as we move forward with planting progress.
 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/6/2013

AM Comments 05/06/13


Monday, May 6, 2013, 7:44 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
The corn market was sharply lower last night (down double digits right on the open) thanks to bearish weather news.  Some of the weekend rains unexpectedly missed a few parts of the Eastern Corn Belt (allowing for planting to continue) while the extended weather forecasts show more favorable conditions over the next 14 days.  This was a typical “weather weekend” for our futures markets – where we take two days off from trading, have a change in the forecasts and have a sharp move Monday morning.
 
This afternoon we will get to see the next planting progress report from the USDA.  Best guess is that corn is 15 to 20% planted and this would NOT include any planting done yesterday in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.  FYI – those regions have a clear path to have corn planting potentially DONE by mid-late week this week.
 
Opening Calls
Corn down 15 to 20 cents
Soybeans down 5 to 7 cents

Friday, May 3, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/3/2013

AM Comments 05/03/13


Friday, May 3, 2013, 8:18 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
It was a quiet trade overnight last night with corn and soybeans both trading in narrow ranges – but inching a bit higher.  So far the weather forecasts don’t look a whole lot different than yesterday.  It will stay wet over the weekend with warmer/drier air moving in next week which should cause net drying.  Once of the reasons for the rally in corn yesterday is that there is a system penciled in for late next week that is expected to bring anywhere from a couple tenths to an inch of rain.  The market will watch that one closely, the areas that miss it could have a nice planting window open up. 
 
Monday afternoon the USDA will grace us with another planting progress report.  Expectations are fairly widespread with some in the trade thinking it will show corn as 12-15% planted while others think it could be closer to 20% planted.  Either way we will be behind pace, knowing full well that we can catch up fast.
 
The outside markets could be a friendly input today.  The U.S. unemployment numbers came out, dropping unemployment to 7.5% which should cause the equity markets to bounce higher.
 
The funds were in buying corn yesterday, we will need to see them doing more of the same today or our market could give back some of these recent gains…
 
Opening Calls
Corn steady to 2 cents higher
Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher

 

Thursday, May 2, 2013

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 5/2/2013

Afternoon Comments 5/2/2013


Thursday, May 2, 2013, 3:31 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman


Markets settled mixed the afternoon with corn 15 cents higher while beans closed 1 cent lower. Old crop corn led the way higher as planting delays continue and forecasts showing little relief nearby. Logic would tell you planting delays would benefit new crop prices more than old crop but not the case. Why are planting delays benefiting old crop prices? A few weeks ago we were looking at our carryout of 757 needing to last until harvest and as harvest gets pushed back our carryout has to last that much longer. Last year tight ending stocks for corn were bailed out by an early harvest, this year that is looking far less possible as planting continues to see delays and weather forecasts calling for very tight planting windows. Once Brazil loads all the backlogged vessels waiting off their ports it is possible the Southeastern US could import cheaper corn from South America providing relief to a later harvest.
 
Soybeans struggled to remain around unchanged as corn acres are thought to be switching to soybeans. The majority of the corn acres that would be lost come from the northern corn belt but some could come from the Delta where below freezing temperatures have damaged the already emerged corn crop. Basis and futures could see some pressure as Brazil exported 7 mln MT of soybeans in the month of April which surpasses the old record by a comfortable margin. With the record crop finally hitting the market export demand for soybeans and meal out of the US should come to a halt.
 
If you are tired of waiting to plant this may be an option.

FC Morning Market Commentary for May 2, 2013

Good morning!

Our markets were higher overnight, the 11-15 day forecast is showing a little more moisture meaning the potential planting window late next week could be a little shorter than thought.  It is safe to say
May 2, 2013. Western, IA raingage
that these extended weather forecasts are difficult to trade off of.  Wet one day, dry the next.  This force feeds volatility into our market and won’t end anytime soon.  Planting weather -> pollination weather -> August “soybean make-or-break” weather -> harvest weather – it isn’t going to stop anytime soon.  Step 1… get the crop in the ground.

The USDA released their export sales report this morning and it is a friendly input.  Wheat sales were good, corn sale were also good – coming in above the trade guesses.  Soybeans showed net cancellations (negative sales) for old crop which by itself would be bearish BUT the new crop sales numbers were big, making the report an overall bullish input.

Outside markets… also friendly this morning as crude oil is putting in a small recovery.  The big talk around the trade today will no doubt be all of the snow that has fallen across the Western Corn Belt. 

Opening Calls
Corn 7-9 cents higher
Soybeans 5-6 cents higher
 

Have a great day!

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/1/2013

AM Comments 05/01/13


Wednesday, May 1, 2013, 8:16 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Good morning!
 
Our markets were under pressure last night and are still weaker this morning.  The drop in futures prices is being blamed on hedge pressure (farmer selling) and long liquidation (funds/specs selling). 
 
The extended weather outlook may not be quite as wet as forecasted yesterday which helps explain the sell-off in corn.  Although… it is the 1st of May and they are calling for 1-3” of snow for parts of Iowa (mainly North and NW).  This could eventually add support but the fact that the system stalled over the Western Corn Belt means folks in the East should get an extra day of planting. 
 
For soybeans – China’s PMI came in lower than last month and below expectations, indicating their economy is growing at a slower rate than thought.  China’s economy is of the utmost importance to soybean demand projections.  The world needs a strong Chinese economy for raw material prices to rise.
 
Overall it could be a light volume day today as Europe, China and other countries are out due to the May Day holiday.  This could help explain the violent moves we have seen in the night session.
 
Opening Calls
Corn down 7 to 10 cents
Soybeans down 15 to 25 cents