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Friday, June 29, 2012

June 29th, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

USDA quarterly stocks/acreage report out this morning as follows:  CORN June 1 stocks 3.148 Bln, acreage at 96.4 Mln;  BEANS June 1 stocks 667 Mln, acreage 76.1. 
Stocks numbers mostly as expected, acreage numbers both higher than expected. So, we’re pretty much back to the weather. These report numbers this morning will be taken into account in the next monthly supply/demand report on July 11. Obviously the huge swing number is simply national yield numbers for both corn and beans, both of which should be lower than last month given the adverse weather.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

June 28, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

Temperatures from 100 to 115 degrees across the corn belt continue to stress crops today.  There are still differing weather models out there with some showing a few rains this weekend into early next week while others show the heat and dry weather sticking around.  Any changes to either heat or precip throughout the day will no doubt move this market around.

This morning the USDA released its weekly export sales report and it was disappointing once again on corn while soybeans came in at or a little above expectations – which is a little friendly.  Today could/should be choppy as we try to trade a weather market AND prepare for the USDA’s planted acreage report and quarterly stocks report coming out tomorrow morning. 

Corn is 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

June 27th, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

Once again – today is pretty easy to figure out, it is all weather.  The weather models remain hot and dry so the market continues to add a risk premium to the market. Some models are showing rain chances late next week, while others are showing it to remain hot and dry.  The first true sign of relief could/should slow this rally down.

Friday morning the USDA will give us final planted acreage numbers as well as the quarterly stocks report.  Then a couple weeks after that they will be plugging those numbers into the S&D as well as tinkering with demand projections and we will have a better idea of how tight things will be both at the end of this summer and at the end of next.

Corn is 25 to 30 cents higher
Soybeans are 20 to 25 cents higher

Have a great day!


Monday, June 25, 2012

June 25th, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Weather market in full force this morning. Weekend precip was scattered and once again mainly in the western and northern corn belt. The tropical storm in the gulf steered east and will not be of aid to parched areas in the East. Additionally, this week has mid to upper 90’s temps forecasted for a few days. Weekly crop ratings will probably decline again this week, led by the states east of the river, although some western states may show improvement. Outside market influences neutral to negative, with crude oil and equities lower, but that does not matter right now. Reminder of USDA quarterly stocks/acreage report this coming Friday morning. Volatility will remain high the next few days. Also, today the CBOT pit close moves from 1:15 to 2:00 pm, so we will be back in sync with both electronic and pit close at the same time.  Currently corn up 35 and soybeans up 40.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

June 21, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

Our markets are for the most part trading weather – and today the talk centers around decent rains that fell in the Western Corn Belt overnight.  This system appears to be losing strength as it moves East but it is still expected to give the dry areas of Illinois/Indiana a little shot of precip over the next 24 hours.  They still say they there is approx 1/3 of the corn belt that is considered dry and in need of a good rain.  So even though these nearby rains are causing weakness – overall we still have problem areas.  Don’t be surprised if today’s trade once again turns out to be choppy.

The USDA’s weekly export sales report was out this morning – both corn & soybean sales were on the low end of guesses which is neutral to a tad bearish.  There were good exports of bean meal and oil – which could help support the complex as the day goes on. 

Outside markets today are somewhat of a non factor, although crude oil is weaker which could drag on our grains as well.

Corn is down 5 to 7 cents
Soybeans are down 7 to 10 cents

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

June 20, 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

Our markets are lower this morning on an improved moisture outlook for parts of the corn belt vs. yesterday’s forecast – especially in the West along with cooler temps.  With the rallies we have seen the past few days it is also not overly surprising that we are seeing a setback.    

If anything is going to trade higher today – it could be soybeans.  There are areas of the belt that have cut their wheat and are waiting for moisture to plant double crop beans (southern Indiana & Kentucky for example) some of the farmers in that area have planted beans once already and the beans have been sitting in dry dirt, not germinating.  They will likely be replanting those as soon as the weather allows (likely deeper the next time, hunting for moisture).  We need every acre we can find and as the double crop plantings get delayed – yield on those acres will drag. 

Corn down 6 to 10c
Soybeans mixed – up 2c to down 2c

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

June 19 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Markets yesterday and thus far today are all about weather. It is truly a case of the have’s and have-not’s. Last weekend rainfall was good for some, primarily in the western and northern corn belt, while much of the eastern and southern corn belt didn’t get much. 6-10 day forecast maps call for more of the same….above normal temps and below normal precip. Weekly crop ratings were out yesterday afternoon and showed further decline in the good/excellent numbers. Corn was down 3% to 63% nationally (Iowa was unchanged at 67%). Soybeans were down 4% to 56% nationally (Iowa down 1 at 61%). Markets higher thus far today. Would expect higher market all day depending on mid-day forecast models. Outside market influences won’t matter much today.

Monday, June 18, 2012

June 18th 2012 Morning Market Commentary

Markets are higher this morning after positive outcomes in Greek elections over the weekend resulting in the pro-bailout party capturing the most votes. The EPA cleared the blending of higher ethanol fuel to as much as 15% which certainly will have the corn markets attention. Despite the much needed and anticipated rain over the weekend 1/3 of the Midwest remains dry causing concerns as the corn belt is set see temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s. Outside markets have crude lower, dollar higher, and the Dow lower.

Corn 5-7 higher
Beans 8-12 higher

Friday, June 15, 2012

Market Reports

Good Morning!

A quiet night leading into this morning as markets prepare for Greek elections over the weekend. The 24 hr. weather projection shows most, if not all, of our trade territory getting a much needed 1-1.5 inches of rain with the 5 day forecast projecting anywhere from 1.24 to 2.4 inches over our trade territory. The Delta and SE corn region’s weather dances seem to be a loss with only a 10% precipitation coverage the past 24 hrs. and less than 10% over the next 5 days. Outside markets are mixed with crude down, US $ down, and gold up.

Corn steady to down 2
Beans up 3

Have a great day!

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Farmers Cooperative - Market Commentary Details

AM Comments 06/14/12

Thursday, June 14, 2012, 8:44 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning!

There was strength in corn overnight and you can credit that to a drier weather pattern showing up in the extended forecasts for the Eastern Corn Belt. As far as nearby weather goes, chances are good for heavy rains to come this weekend, but it hasn't happened yet. Currently it appears NW IA, MN, SD and WI will get the most precip - this is awfully similar to the recent patterns. Will this finally be the time the rains push South and East, potentially saving yields in those areas? All eyes will be on the radar for the next 4-5 days to see who gets it - and who doesn't.

The USDA's weekly export sales report was out this morning - disappointing once again on corn, coming in below estimates. Soybeans also came in just a shade below estimates. Overall you can call the report bearish but not too surprising.

Corn is up 8 to 12 cents
Soybeans are up 3 to 5 cents

Have a great day!
Farmers Cooperative - Market Commentary Details