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Friday, August 30, 2013, 8:00 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets were weaker last night, the weather forecasts are finally cooling down and there are potential rains in the forecast – although chances are low. We may walk in here Tuesday (Monday is the Labor Day holiday) with higher markets if these rain chances fizzle out. With this being a three-day weekend you can expect a choppy trade ahead of it as traders attempt to remove risk from their positions.
The early harvest reports out of the Southern Corn Belt and the Delta are still impressive. The irrigated corn in the boot heel of Missouri is reportedly running between 215 and 250 bpa. Non irrigated corn will start soon and is expected to be in the 175bpa range. The cash inverse is starting to slip away as new crop bushels start to move North.
Runovers caused by
falls from tractors and trailing equipment are one of the most common forms of
unintentional injuries that happen on the farm or ranch. Many of these lead to
serious injury and death. Falls from farm machinery are
particularly common for
the older farmer and children. Falls from machinery can be prevented by
adopting these basic practices.
Wear shoes and boots with slip-resistant soles
Keep platforms, foot-plates and steps clear of
mud, snow, manure or other debris.
Before moving, check the tractor and trailing
equipment to see that no one has climbed aboard without your knowledge.
Remove tools or other items that may cause a
tripping hazard from the operator platform.
Don't use working farm equipment as a place to
baby-sit children. Arrange for proper childcare.
Never allow anyone to ride on the drawbar or towed
Insist that no one ride on farm equipment
except those required for its operation, instruction, or diagnostics.
Reduce speed on rough, uneven or hilly ground.
Watch for obstacles.
Wait for the tractor to stop before getting
off. Set brakes and step down using handholds or rails. No one should jump
off a moving tractor. Whenever possible, equip tractors with a Rollover
Protective Structure (ROPS) cab. They are more comfortable, give overhead
protection, and prevent falls from tractors.
Thursday, August 29, 2013, 7:57 am Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Overnight markets a bit lower as forecasts reducing heat and adding rainfall for early next week. This week has been quite the flip-flop affair for prices, almost solely due to weather. This weather spell has undoubtedly hurt yield potential in the western corn belt, but on the other hand….has sped up crop maturity for all. Corn harvest from KY south is happening now with most yield reports very good down there. Something over 1,000 barges of southern new crop corn, mainly from AR and LA, will be making their way NORTH very soon for Midwest corn milling and ethanol plant destinations. Weekly export sales were good for new crop grain, however old crop had net cancellations of business.
Opening calls a little lower, but will watch mid-day forecasts closely.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013, 7:42 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Yesterday afternoon we saw corn and soybean futures sell off late thanks to some moderation in the weather forecasts. Overnight both commodities tried to put in a rally before giving way to some selling – they are now both trading a touch lower.
There isn’t much news to go on today, crude oil is higher again this morning which could add strength to our commodities as well. All eyes will be on the midday weather forecasts – if they look any cooler or wetter, expect another sell off in soybeans. If they stay unchanged or get warmer and drier, expect a rally.
Here’s an interesting nugget when comparing this year to past record dry Augusts:
·Change in Aug production estimates to the final production:
o‘71 (3rd) -4.8%
o'76 (1) -4.1%
o'84 (2nd) -8.6%
o2003 (11th) -14.3%
o2008 (8th) -0.2%
·Assuming average of those 5 years implies -6.4% decline from 13/14 August production estimate. Would drop the 3.255 bbu crop to 3.046 bbu (last years bean crop was 3.015 bbu)
The next round of FC marketing sessions are tomorrow, with Farnhamville starting at 9am and Bradford starting at 1:30pm
Tuesday, August 27, 2013, 7:53 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
We drifted lower overnight (on good volume) after yesterday’s big move that saw the funds come in and buy both corn and soybeans. The market saw decent farmer selling across the country yesterday in both commodities and basis is weakening a bit because of that.
The outside markets are mixed, crude oil is sharply higher, the $US is also higher and the DOW futures are a little lower.
The weather still looks hot and dry, but if you dig down into the details the heat may be not quite as intense, meaning the forecast is a little milder than yesterday (emphasis on ‘a little’). Would not be surprised to see a two-sided trade today as people attempt to digest what this record heat means for the soybean crop.
Corn steady to down 2 cents
Soybeans down 2 to 4 cents
Last week’s drought monitor (a new one comes out this Thursday):
Friday, August 23, 2013, 8:25 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
It’s another weather induced rally for the soybean market with warm temperatures expected to move into the Midwest later tonight. Most of Iowa will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s starting Sunday and lasting to next weekend (maybe longer). Scattered showers will be few and far between causing concern for soybean production. Over the past 10 days the soybean market has put on over $1.50 premium for weather concerns and the question traders are asking is “is this enough” or is “this too much”. Needless to say pod fill will be watched closer over the next several weeks. Corn futures have been reluctantly pulled higher by rallies in the soybean market. Some are estimating with corn maturity where it is that only 1-3% of the US corn yield could be impacted by the heat/lack of moisture moving through the Midwest. That represents 150-400 mln bushels which is a drop in the bucket with the 1.8 bln bushel estimated ending stocks.
Pro Farmer released their final estimates of Iowa pegging corn yield at 171.9 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 163 bpa. Average soybean pod count was 927 vs the 3 year average of 1190. Minnesota corn yield was estimated at 181.1 bpa vs the USDA estimate of 166 bpa. Pro Farmer will release their total US production estimate later today. You can probably sum up the tour with better than expected corn yield and disappointing bean yield.
The power-take-off (PTO)
allows a farmer to harness the power of the tractor engine to drive a variety
of machines. It is just as important today as it was when it was first
introduced. However, a healthy respect for the PTO driveline's potential for
causing injury and death is needed.
Keep all PTO shielding (including the master shield) in
Repair or replace damaged or missing shields.
Stay safely away from unshielded moving parts.
Watch your step when walking or working around a
Wear work clothing with no loose ends or strings to
catch on or be caught by machinery.
Keep long hair under a cap or tied back to prevent it
from being caught by the machinery.
Keep children and non-workers out of the danger zone.
Thursday, August 22, 2013, 8:17 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am today… total corn sales were decent, but below the trade guess. Soybean sales were also decent but the look below the trade guess as well. Overall this is a probably a little disappointing but close enough to the trade guesses to be a non-event.
Pro Farmer should finalize their Midwest Crop Tour results later today, so far their corn crop projections look stout (see table below).
Decent rains have fallen across Iowa overnight and are still moving across the state this morning. Parts of Central IA will once again miss these rains but for many, this could be viewed as a crop saver on soybeans. (precip map below)
Wednesday, August 21, 2013, 7:57 am Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Good Morning! Markets were higher last night on weather. Forecasts of limited rain in the WCB and heat through next week are the reason. That’s really it this morning….not much else in play for the time being. Pro Farmer crop tour resumes today in parts of IA and IL, trade will watch for those reports.
Tuesday, August 20, 2013, 8:09 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
ProFarmer’s Midwest Crop Tour started yesterday (map below) they start in both the East and the West and meet in the middle (Iowa) on Thursday. Yesterday they were in South Dakota and Ohio and they found big crops in both states. They pegged Ohio at 171.6bpa which is just shy of two bushels short of an all-time record. Today we will hear reports from those guys/gals from mainly Nebraska and Indiana. The trade tends to view ProFarmer as a friend to the farmer in regards to price action, in other words the yield numbers they release may be light.
Weather looks unchanged today with warming temps and a general lack of precip. Some parts of Iowa will see scattered T-storms later this week, but the driest regions still look like they will miss it.
Monday, August 19, 2013, 7:46 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets were higher last night, led by soybeans. There are mornings where we have a relatively long list of inputs to help describe the price action from the overnight trade – not this morning, right now we have just one: weather.
There has been a warmer, drier shift for the central Midwest particularly for Illinois and Iowa which is a direct threat to soybean yields. The dry areas of central/western Iowa sure look like they will stay dry from now until the end of the August. This of course is allowing the trade to put a weather premium back into the market – rallying Nov beans to new highs for the move.
This afternoon we will get the weekly crop ratings from the USDA, the trade is anticipating anywhere from a 1-3% drop in good-to-excellent ratings in today’s report.
Friday, August 16, 2013, 8:24 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Yesterday we were given a very nice futures rally and the market relaxed a bit overnight – trading a little weaker in corn, soybeans and wheat. As of right now, Nov beans are approximately 80c higher than they were at the close a week ago today. Corn’s rally hasn’t been quite as impressive, but it is 13c higher than a week ago and Dec corn slipped above its 20-day moving average yesterday (the 1st time since June that has happened).
The story is pretty simple – the market is starting to truly question the USDA’s production estimates for next year. Prevent plant acres were the story yesterday (it surprised a few in the trade, although not everyone) and some are really starting to wonder about potential soybean yields… largely due to the warmer weather forecasted for next week with no sign of moisture in the 10-day outlook.
Speaking of weather… the 6-10 day outlook shows a return to normal temps with below normal moisture for most of the Midwest. The longer term forecasts look similar, maybe even above normal in temps with normal to below normal precip.
In biofuel news, yesterday the U.S. gov’t inaugurated a plan to boost low sugar prices and mitigate a costly sugar surplus. In this “Sugar for Ethanol” program they will buy unwanted sugar and sell it at a loss to ethanol makets to produce more biofuels. This is the first time the Ag Dept. used the Feedstock Flexibility Program with the goal of making sugar into a biofuel feedstock (similar to what they do in Brazil). Some are thinking that 60-70 million bushels of corn demand could be displaced by sugar.
There are very few activities more dangerous, and that injures more people, than accidents in and around grain bins.
The following are
reminders and safety measures to practice while working around grain:
Follow these important safety tips when working in and around grain bins - it may save your life.
children out of grain bins, beds and
wagons at all times. Grain flow can cover them before anyone realizes what is
out the control circuit before entering a bin, whether or not grain is flowing. Be especially
careful around automatic unloading equipment.
three people involved when you enter a grain bin, and enter with a rope and safety harness.
In the case of an accident, it will take two people to lift you out using the
count on someone outside the bin to
hear your shouted instructions. Equipment noise may block out your calls for
5. If you
become trapped in a bin of
flowing grain with nothing to hold onto but you are still able to walk, stay
near the outside wall. Keep walking until the bin is empty or grain flow stops.
If you are covered by flowing grain, cup your hands over your mouth, and take
short breaths until help arrives.
6. If another
person becomes submerged in grain, assume he is alive and begin rescue operations
immediately. Turn on the fan to move air into the bin. Cut large holes around
the bin, approximately 5 ft. up from the base, to empty grain. (If you cut too
many holes, the bin may collapse on you.) Use the front-end loader of a
tractor, an abrasive saw or an air chisel. A cutting torch is a last resort –
it could cause a fire or an explosion from dust and fumigant residue.
attempt a rescue by going
into the grain yourself. Call 911. Your local emergency team has the training
and equipment to do the job safely.
Thursday, August 15, 2013, 8:37 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Weather premium is being added to the market this morning even with rain falling in Western Iowa and NW Missouri. Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are in need of a good rain prior to next week’s warm up temperatures with forecasts calling for little to no chance of that happening. There is a tropical storm east of the Yucatan Peninsula that is projected to hit LA and work its way north into the Tennessee Valley and if it shifts west would bring some much needed rain into Iowa and Illinois.
Export inspections were bearish old crop and bullish new crop. Both corn and soybean sales showed a net negative meaning cancellations were greater than purchases. New crop seems to be the story as both corn and soybean new crop sales were double what analysts had projected.
The big news is the release of the FSA prevent planted acres data. The FSA showed 3.4 mln acres of corn was prevent plant while 1.6 mln acres were prevent plant for soybeans. It will certainly be interesting to see how the market reacts to this data when the market reopens. Keep in mind the USDA currently has planted acres of 97.4 mln acres in the S&D calculations which means one of three things...
A)The initial planting intentions were heavily underestimated and should have been 100.8 mln acres (97.4 planted+3.4 mln prevent plant)
B)Planted acres the USDA is using in over stated
The correct answer is most likely C) both but the questions is how much of each is correct. This is what trade will probably argue about the rest of the day.
Wednesday, August 14, 2013, 8:00 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are mixed this morning with soybeans down while corn hovers around unchanged. Corn is finding a little bit of support after the collapse yesterday (which made new contract lows in Dec corn). Soybeans are under pressure, maybe taking a breather after being up 45c over the first two days of the week. Dec corn is trading around $4.50 and Nov beans are around $12.25, the normal, historic corn:bean ratio normally hangs around 2.25 and it is at 2.72 this morning. This indicates that with limited chances for rallies in Dec corn, Nov beans could have some downside potential here in the short term.
Weather… the far western side of the corn belt, along with the western plains and southern belt are forecasted to receive rains over the next couple days – but rainfall chances (especially for Iowa) are shown to remain below normal. Temps will start to rise back to normal next week.
Tuesday, August 13, 2013, 8:14 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
The markets are finding support this morning on follow through buying after yesterday’s bullish supply/demand estimates. Crop condition ratings last night were as expected, unchanged at 64% good/excellent in both corn and soybeans. Iowa’s corn crop dropped 2% to 49% good/excellent while most of the eastern corn belt improved 1-2%.
USDA tightened both old crop and new crop ending stocks for corn more than expected causing short covering by funds. As we have seen in the past, money flow by funds has a huge impact on prices and with the bullish report it’s hard to see new shorts entering the market over the next couple of days meaning a “short term” bottom may have been formed. The market still feels bearish to prices as US corn is still high priced compared with foreign markets and trade starts to question the USDA yield figure. USDA is currently using a 5 year average for ear and pod weight (including the drought last year) which if too low could be understating yield.
The 5 day forecast has significant rain falling from the Tennessee Valley and south which will delay harvest in those areas. The 6-10 day forecast is calling for a drier pattern with more normal temperatures expected. Weather models are pointing to atmospheric disruptions which could bring heavy rain into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa late this week.