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Friday, March 29, 2013, 8:56 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Just a reminder markets are closed today for Good Friday. It may be a “good Friday” to take a break from the markets after yesterday’s report. The corn stocks came in 400 mln bu. higher than trade expectations which had nearby corn locked limit down 2 minutes 4 seconds after the report was released. Traders are trying to figure out if the 400 mln is coming from reduced feeding, under estimating last year’s crop, or a combination of both. Corn acres came in right at expectations of 97.3 million up 100K from last year.
Soybeans closed 49 cents lower on larger than expected stocks of around 65 mln bushels. This suggests ending stocks close to 170 mln vs. the March estimate of 135 mln. Soybean acres came in below trade expectations at 77.1 down 100K from last year.
April 10th will be the next report with USDA releasing an updated S&D.
Thursday, March 28, 2013, 8:00 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
You might as well put the markets on pause this morning as everyone waits for the USDA reports to come out at 11am. The only market trading any news whatsoever may be the wheat market – which is a touch higher thanks to a weather forecast that is a little friendly.
We did get the USDA’s weekly export sales report at 7:30 this morning – it came out disappointing for old crop beans and neutral for corn. New crop bean sales were good – supportive to that portion of the soybean market.
Outside markets… after making new highs for the move yesterday the $US is weaker this morning (which is generally friendly to commodities). Cyprus banks reopened today for the first time in a couple weeks and there are lineups at the banks from citizens wanting to pull their money out. There are limits on how much cash they can take out.
REMEMBER – the markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday. So today is big: it is the last trading day of the week, last trading day of the month, last trading day of the quarter AND we have the USDA gracing us with quarterly stocks and prospective plantings. Could be a doozie…
Wednesday, March 27, 2013, 8:21 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Markets are quiet this morning as today is the last trading day prior to USDA’s release of quarterly stocks and prospective plantings. Nothing has changed in terms of expectations for tomorrow’s report. Trade is expecting bullish old crop corn stocks which isn’t a big surprise with record basis levels confirming their feeling. New crop on the other hand seems to have a bearish tone with outlook showing big acres and improved weather conditions despite December corn gaining 30 cents the past week due to concerns for planting delays. Weekly ethanol data is set to be released this morning with traders expecting to see a slight increase in production with improved profitability and idled plants being turned back on.
Export delays in South America still remain a problem as the wait time for vessels is estimated around 60 days. With Chinese hog profitability at the lowest point in several years it may be unlikely they will switch vessels to the US as demand for soybeans/soybean meal slips off. Oil World cut South American bean production estimates 2.2 MT from last month.
Outside markets are bearish with the dollar trading higher while crude and equities trade lower.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013, 8:12 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
It was another mixed overnight session as our markets tread water up until Thursday’s USDA reports. Corn and soybeans traded on both sides of yesterday’s close throughout the night session.
Average trade guesses for Thursday’s report:
oCorn 97.3 million acres
oSoybeans 78.4 million acres
·STOCKS AS OF MARCH 1
oCorn 4.995 billion bushels
oSoybeans 948 million bushels
Any major variations off these numbers will cause market spikes. Interesting to note the corn acres, basically expected to stay near unchanged from last year. A month or so ago this was rumored to be 98-100m acres. The cold weather has changed some traders’ ideas – basically cementing the fact that corn planting won’t be early although it is still premature to consider planting to be late. I’d expect the market to start trading extended weather forecasts around, oh… 15 minutes after the report is digested!
Monday, March 25, 2013, 7:58 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are starting off a little lower this morning – a quiet start to what could be an eventful week. The USDA report Thursday will be released at 11am – telling us stocks as of March 1 as well as acres. Once that report is digested the market’s focus will shift to spring weather and planting progress. Also – remember there are no markets on Friday (Good Friday).
The outside markets this morning are mixed. The $US is steady while crude oil and the Dow futures are fractionally higher. As for weather, March is on pace to be the 8th coldest since 1895 in IL, IN and IA.
Friday, March 22, 2013, 8:20 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are under a bit of pressure this morning on very little new news. Farmer selling has picked up over the week and has already started to wear on basis – and it feels like it may be weighing down futures prices a bit as well.
The traders are keeping a close eye on the extended weather forecasts for the corn belt. Currently it appears that cold weather will hang in here through the first week of April before turning into a warmer, more seasonal pattern.
Remember – next week is the quarterly stocks report AND the prospective plantings report (acres). The USDA will release those numbers Thursday the 28th. Informa (well followed private company) are releasing their planting intentions numbers later this morning. Not long ago the market was assuming big corn acres – that has since tailed off a bit (maybe due to a change in the weather forecast??). Current average trade estimates call for corn acres to be similar to last year’s numbers (which are still big).
There's a lot of talk this week about Cyprus, that tiny island in the Mediterranean that no one really thought about until a debt crisis there started to shake the world's financial markets.
You've got questions. We've got answers. And we promise to talk really, really slowly.
Q: Wait! What's going on? I'm still getting caught up onTiger Woods dating Lindsey Vonn. Where is this happening?
A: Cyprus. It's an island and a member of the EU, but it's also a tax haven. Think the Cayman Islands but in the Mediterranean. Those lax taxes have made it a popular place for rich Russians – oligarchs, businesses, and a few shady characters – to put their cash.
Q: That sounds lovely. Spring Break! But seriously, it sounds like they've got plenty of cash. So, what went wrong?
A: Well, the big Cypriot banks made a really bad investment. They lent money to Greece. When the Greek economy took a dive, the Cypriot banks took a bigger gamble, buying up Greek government bonds in the hopes of a bailout. Now they're broke. The banks owe more money than they have. In fact they owe more money than the country's GDP.
Q: Good thing they belong to the EU, right? Those Germans are pretty rich. Sounds like somebody could use a bailout.
A: Cyprus asked for a bailout. But the Europeans were not exactly excited about bailing out another country, plus a bunch of billionaire Russian oligarchs and criminals. So, they told the Cypriots they had better come up with money on their own. The only place Cyprus could find large amounts of cash were in people's personal savings accounts.
Q: You've got to be kidding me! They're going to raid people's savings accounts, like Bonnie and Clyde?
A: That was the plan. Tax everyone with a savings account between 6 and 10 percent and use that money to pay down the debt.
Q: If that were me, I'd just run to the bank and take out all my money before the government could get their hands on it.
A: That's exactly what happened this week. Fearing the government was coming for their cash, Cypriots ran to the bank. The government declared a national holiday and closed the banks, so everyone ran to the ATM outside the bank. There were restriction on how much cash could be withdrawn, but that didn't stop people from waiting in long lines to get what they could of their money.
Q: That's nuts. Isn't the responsibility of governments to insure those investments, not take them?
A: Yes. And that's exactly what has got people nervous around the world. Just like the FDIC in the U.S. insures investments the Cypriot government insured accounts there. That means they promise to make investors whole if the banks go under. They abrogated that promise. Banks are based on confidence, but it's going to be a while before anyone can confide in them again.
Q: So, that's it? The government is just going to take citizens' money?
A: The Cypriot legislature on Tuesday refused to pass a law that would have allowed the government to take that initial sum of 6 to 10 percent of investors' savings. But citizens aren't out of the woods yet. The president is expected to go back to the Europeans with a new proposal to pay back international investors that will also satisfy the parliament. Cyprus has until Monday to present the EU and International Monetary Fund with a plan.
Q: Well, at least I've got nothing to worry about. The U.S. economy has been strong for months. The Dow just hit an all time high. My 401k is through the roof. Spring Break!
A: Not so fast. Economists have anticipated that American markets will have to correct for all the rapid growth and Cyprus might just be the tipping point. Stocks have fallen and there are concerns that jittery investors will pull back even more. If the Eurozone debt crisis continues to spread and investors in other countries begin pulling their money from banks, we might all be in trouble.
Thursday, March 21, 2013, 8:40 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are mixed – with corn taking a few profits and trading lower while soybeans are continuing to bounce a little higher. Soybean futures are rallying on rumors that there are soybean purchases are getting switched from South America to the US. Still just a rumor, and it probably isn’t a lot of volume, but it is a friendly input.
The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was disappointing for both corn and soybeans. The weather forecast is still supportive to corn – cold temps are forecasted for the next two weeks for the Midwest, Delta and Southeast parts of the United States.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013, 8:02 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are starting off higher this morning as the corn market continues its move to the upside. Soybeans are also higher this morning, yesterday was the 6th day in a row that soybeans closed lower – so a little bounce in the market is probably needed.
For the most part, the old crop corn and soybean markets appear to be trending in opposite directions. Corn is gaining strength from strong domestic demand thanks to good ethanol margins. Soybeans are weaker on poor export demand – China has been cancelling large chunks of soybean purchases they had on with Brazil, because of their poor logistics, and doesn’t appear to be buying them back (yet). It is assumed that they will just buy them back from South America later in the crop year. Domestic demand for soybeans is still strong, which is keeping soybean basis firm, although U.S. crush plants have seen their margins deteriorate lately.
The weather forecast for the U.S. looks to remain cool and wet which – believe it or not – is starting to get a few people nervous about the timing of corn planting.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013, 8:20 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are mixed this morning after chopping around on both sides of yesterday’s close overnight. Corn did make new highs for the move last night – they have since backed off but the corn chart is still pushing higher. Ethanol margins have improved – they look be as high as they’ve been in over a year. Valero announced yesterday that they are bringing the last of their idled plants back online. They have 10 plants total – at one point three of them were idled but as of now all 10 are back into production. This improvement in crush margin is a big reason as to why corn prices have snapped back.
There isn’t much else going on – the wheat market is a little nervous as there is potential for a freeze this weekend in the Plains (and maybe down into the Gulf States), so traders will be watching that forecast closely as the week moves on.
Aredale Fire Chief Dustin Cole (left) accepts a rescue tube donated by FC's Terry Fliehler.
Farmers Cooperative Company (Ames, Iowa), recently donated grain rescue tubes to the Aredale Fire Department. In addition to donating the rescue tubes FC led a safety training session to ensure that the firefighters, who usually are the first responders if an engulfment were to occur in the area, knew how to properly use the rescue tubes in the event of an emergency. We appreciate the opportunity to help and to work with our community firefighters, safety officers and first responders. Together We Can help ensure the next generation of farmers are here to feed the world.
Monday, March 18, 2013, 9:09 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Our markets are sharply lower this morning with corn trading 5 lower while soybeans trade 14 lower. The dollar is sharply higher as the IMF (international monetary fund) has provided $10 billion to bail out the small country of Cyprus off the coast of Turkey. This has investors running to safer investments that aren’t tied to the Euro. EU finance ministers have agreed to force citizens to share the cost of the bailout by incurring a bank deposit tax of 6.75% on all deposits made into Cyprus banks. Talk about a way to kill consumer confidence. It is rumored that citizens with more than 100 euros in their account were assessed a 20% tax (20% of their account disappeared overnight). With these drastic measures being taken traders are thinking the European debt crisis may be worse than initially thought.
It seems the ground hog may have been wrong this year with forecasts showing winter may extend a few more weeks. Over the next 10 days the Midwest and Central plains are projected to see below normal temperatures with nearly normal precip.
South American weather remains dry providing harvest to continue without delays. Brazil harvest is seem at 58% vs. 55% last year and 42% on average. Logistical concerns are still in question with port lines in Brazil at 14.9 miles long, up from 11.8 miles long just one day ago.
Friday, March 15, 2013, 8:25 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Today looks to be a quiet day with very little new news to talk about. The $US is sharply lower this morning which should benefit commodity prices overall.
The USDA’s stocks and acreage report is now less than two weeks away – the bulls feel that the stocks number will reflect higher demand than expected – pushing nearby May futures in both corn and soybeans higher. The bears feel that the record soybean crop in South America and overall world weather outlooks that look “normal” are telling us current prices are too high.
Today looks to be a quiet day with very little new
news to talk about. The $US is sharply lower this morning which should
benefit commodity prices overall.
The USDA’s stocks and acreage report is now less
than two weeks away – the bulls feel that the stocks number will reflect
higher demand than expected – pushing nearby May futures in both corn
and soybeans higher. The bears feel that the
record soybean crop in South America and overall world weather outlooks
that look “normal” are telling us current prices are too high.
Thursday, March 14, 2013, 2:33 pm Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Markets were mixed today with corn closing higher while soybeans finished lower for the 3rd consecutive day. Wheat traded above the 20 day moving average for the first time in over a month triggering some technically buying which inadvertantly drug corn with it. As trade starts to anticipate corn stocks that will be released the 28th the general concencious is a figure slightly below 5 bln bu which would confirm supply remains tight.
Soybeans continue the downslide losing around 42 cents over the past 3 trading days on concerns over reduced demand from China. Rumors China has cancelled 3 cargoes offered resistance combined with technicallys selling below the 20 day moving average.
The USDA drought monitor showed slight improvement for the midwest. Since Jan. 1st the midwest has seen 21.18% of the land go from some form of drought to no drought with the majority of that being Indiana and Illinois. Iowa over the same time frame has only seen .09% move from drought conditions to no drought, however, the severity of the drought has reduced. The below maps show the progression with the left graph being this week, middle is last week, and the right is Jan. 1st.
Thursday, March 14, 2013, 8:29 am
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
News this morning has been few and far between which has the markets chopping around steady to down a couple. No big surprises in this week’s export sales; corn exports came in at 11.1 mln bu within expectations of 10-22 mln. Soybean sales were 24.17 mln slightly below expectations of 30-42 mln but well ahead of USDA pace. Wheat exports came in above the estimate of 13-22 mln at 32.65 mln which has wheat the only grain trading higher.
*Tomorrow’s forecasted high of 56 in Des Moines has some people anxious for spring. Just an FYI the high of 56 for tomorrow (3/15) happens to be 25 degrees less than last years high of 81 for 3/15/12. So far this month the average temperature for march has been below normal and almost opposite of last years record high March temperatures. The chart below indicates the month of March last year averaged a high of 66.8 degrees for the month and this year the current pace is 35.8 degrees well below the 49 degree historical average.
Outside markets are a touch bearish this morning as the dollar makes new highs on worsening European financial outlooks while crude and metals trade lower.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013, 12:26 pm Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Soybeans are finding heavy liquidation this afternoon on rumors Brazil has eliminated a tax credit for domestic oil. This 4.5% crush tax credit if eliminated equates to 54 cents/bushel loss in margin (very bearish beans). Rumors have also started of China cancelling bean purchases.
Ethanol data this morning showed last week’s production for corn ethanol declined 8,000 barrels/day and ethanol stocks declined by 663k barrels for the week. Once again corn used for ethanol is gradually falling farther behind the pace of what is needed to reach the USDA estimate.
Outside markets are bearish with the dollar trading higher while crude and metals trade lower.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013, 8:34 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
The soybean market is under pressure this morning trading 14 cents lower while corn trades steady to 2 lower. Soybeans are trading lower on a couple of newsworthy pieces. News that China port inventories are growing reducing the pressure on South American logistics and reduces the chances of vessels being switched to the US is providing most of the bearish feel this morning. Chinese hog profitability has fallen below breakeven which has traders thinking soybean demand may back off if hog inventories begin to shrink.
Informa has recently backed off their estimate for 2013 new crop corn plantings. In January they had an estimate of 99 million acres and yesterday the head chief announced their feelings are more in the line of 97 million acres and possibly could be as low as 95 million. Bean acres are felt to be 80 million, up from 78.8 as the recent markets have made new crop bean production more appealing.
10 day weather forecast is benign as the Midwest is expected to see normal precipitation with below normal temperatures. South America is expected to see below normal precip over the next 10 days which will allow harvest to progress without delays.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013, 12:40 pm Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Commodities are mixed at midday with corn futures trading 6 cents higher to levels we haven’t seen in over a month while soybeans trade 5 ½ cents lower. The rally for corn continues for the 4th straight day on concern over tight domestic supply. Technical charts show corn in an uptrend with the next resistance at the 100 day moving average of $7.225. Corn planters in the south have been rolling the past couple of weeks and estimates show Texas 29% complete (same as last year) while Louisiana is estimated at 20% (6% last year).
Soybeans are lacking bullish news to continue a rally as logistics in South America have somewhat quieted. Port workers have set a deadline for March 19th for negotiations of working conditions and wages to progress before they start to strike. Outside of South American logistics bullish news (any news to be specific) for soybeans is hard to find.
Precipitation for the Midwest over the past 30 days has been double of normal which probably still isn’t enough to fully replenish soil conditions but is a good start to recovery (left map). The 5 day forecast (right map) shows small amounts of rain for the eastern corn belt while the rains seem to avoid the Delta and western Texas.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013, 7:58 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets are starting the day off steady to weaker. Yesterday our markets put in some nice gains, causing farmer selling to pick up a bit. By looking at the overnight trade, the corn and soybean markets appear to be taking a breather - backfilling part of yesterday’s move. The financial markets also appear to be taking a break as the Dow futures are trading lower after being higher 7 days in a row.
The Brazilian soybean crop is reported at 50% harvested, with the 10-day outlook looking favorable for continued harvest. (normal temps, normal precip)
FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE Background
The Risk Management Agency (RMA), on behalf of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation,
oversees and administers the crop insurance program under the Federal Crop Insurance Act.
Crop insurance is offered to qualified producers through 16 private sector crop insurance
companies. Under the Standard Reinsurance Agreement, RMA provides reinsurance, pays a
premium subsidy to reduce the premium charged to producers, reimburses the insurance
companies for administrative and operating costs, and oversees the financial integrity and
operational performance of the delivery system. While RMA bears much of the insurance risk in
areas where losses have traditionally been higher, the insurance companies that deliver the
program retain a large portion of the risk in the lower risk areas, which they can reinsure in the
In 2005, the Federal crop insurance program provided producers with more than $44.29 billion in
liability protection on approximately 246 million acres through about 1.25 million policies.
There are 22 plans of insurance available and nearly 30 new insurance products under various
stages of evaluation or development. Approximately 80 percent of acres of major program crops
are insured–many at higher levels of coverage.
RMA works closely with the private sector to find new and innovative ways to provide more and
better coverage, thereby reducing the need for ad-hoc disaster bills and improving risk protection
for specialty crops, livestock and forage, rangeland, and pasture. RMA is also working with the
private sector to address the reduction in available coverage caused by long-term production
declines that result from extended drought in many areas.
General Opinions Expressed
· Crop insurance programs must be simplified so that farmers can make the best possible
· Higher premium subsidies should be provided for those who insure their crops under a
“whole farm” approach.
· There is a need to establish better quality loss adjustment procedures to improve the
relationship between the crop insurance adjustment and the actual discount received in the
· Crop insurance subsidies should be capped to avoid encouraging larger and more expansive
· RMA and FSA should have the same reporting dates for acres planted and certified.
· A whole-farm revenue program should replace the counter-cyclical program.
· Federal crop insurance is needed for producers of inherently high-risk specialty agricultural
· More training is needed for insurance agents and crop loss adjusters.
· Individual risk management savings accounts with matching USDA funds should be
established for farmers.
· Crop insurance needs to be more affordable for farmers.
· Concern was expressed that when there are several years of crop disasters, the APH is
decreased, and the coverage decreases.
· General support for more funding for the Federal crop insurance program was expressed.
· Support and appreciation were expressed for more farm revenue programs rather than
insuring only yields. Full-farm revenue insurance should be considered.
· Some commenters expressed concern that crop insurance has unintended consequences of
encouraging high-water-usage crops in semi-arid regions.
· Some comments suggest including disaster revenue assurance in farm bill legislation.
· Support for “cost-of-production insurance.”
· A few comments stated that USDA should end subsidies for loans, insurance, and crop
· Support for direct delivery of Federal crop insurance without involvement of private
· Farmers should be able to compete without Federal programs, like crop insurance.
· Many positive comments were made about the benefit of crop insurance during disaster
· One participant noted that crop insurance had done more for High Plains farmers over the
last 6 years of drought than direct payments.
· One commenter noted that an inequity exists in crop insurance where growers in
Washington and Oregon have a whole different deal than growers in Utah.
Detailed Suggestions Expressed
· Young producers should receive higher premium subsidies in order to purchase crop
insurance at the 80 and 85 percent coverage level.
· RMA and FSA should have same reporting dates for acres planted and certified.
· RMA should establish a certification process for independent contractors to adjust for losses
and measure production yields for both loan and crop insurance purposes.
· Crop insurance for certain specialty crops, particularly potatoes, does not work.
· Federal crop insurance should not be provided for certain crops, particularly for green chili
because it distorts plantings.
· FSA acreage certification software should be allowed to interface with RMA.
· Crop Revenue Coverage (CRC) should be modified to provide variable coverage levels
based on yield potential in normal years rather than actual history in times of prolonged
· Provide direct vouchers for the purchase of insurance for crops and/or crop revenue
· Some expressed concern with specific rules regarding crop insurance. Farmers must ask
permission to commingle production in a bin.
· Specific pack factor rules with RMA and FSA need to be consistent. One uses 6.6 bushels
for a ton of silage and the other agency uses 7.93.
· Original Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) pilot program and AGR-Lite are important tools;
however, they are complicated and difficult for producers to make application for eligibility.
· Crop insurance rules should allow new farmers to utilize historic field yields, not county
· Crop insurance programs ignore winter wheat in continuous crop vs. summerfallow winter
wheat in eastern Washington State.
· The Federal crop insurance program needs revamping. Most insurance programs, such as
health or home insurance, reimburse the insured for most of the costs associated with a
tragedy. Crop insurance in no way provides this insurance.
· Federal crop insurance is an example of a program benefit that encourages high-water-use
crops to move into the semi-arid sorghum belt.
· The Federal Government needs to act as insurance agents and return to insurer roles.
· Reform crop insurance from 60 percent to 90 percent reimbursement for natural disasters.
· Put in place crop insurance that pays Chicago Board of Trade prices based on running 5-
year production averages.
· The Government should not provide one farmer a larger grant or crop insurance guarantee
than another farmer or else the Government is selecting a winner and a loser.
· Need to make dairy production eligible for crop insurance.
· The Federal crop insurance program can be a lot simpler. Should be done by a per value,
per acre system so all people can be insured, and not be limited to certain products.
· Federal crop insurance has problems with individual farm units. The program should go to
single-unit crop insurance with better coverage and lower premiums.
· Concern about APHIS imposing a quarantine or stop-sale order on plants and that the
Federal crop insurance program does not have authority to cover those losses.
· There is a need to revise rules for entry-level growers and growers who change crops to
meet changing markets. The 5-year rule is unrealistic.
· In Hawaii, there is a tremendous need for information for farm producers and, besides, there
is a problem with language.
· Stop crop insurance on vegetable crops.
· The Federal crop insurance program does not work because you can make a profit out of it.
Prefer a cost-of-production insurance program.
· The Florida Avocado Administrative Committee has been petitioning the USDA since 1992
to make substantial changes to the avocado crop insurance program.
· Federal crop insurance should be expanded to cover tropical hardwood tree farms. Private
insurance is not available.
· USDA should provide crop insurance for foliage crops that can be available for landscape
and export nurseries.
· Eliminate current direct payments, as well as counter-cyclical and loan deficiency payments
and use the same funding to buy down crop insurance premiums.
· There is a need for broader crop insurance coverage for corn as grain in North Dakota, in
order to meet the growing needs of the ethanol industry. 4
· Farmers assuming more risk through enterprise unit or group policies should receive the
same percentage of premium subsidy as those assuming the least amount of individual risk
through optional units.
· Levels of funding need to be increased for RMA outreach programs.
· There is a Federal policy problem when a landowner with land along a river gets flooded 8
of 10 years and receives crop insurance, disaster payments, and money to clean up the mess.
· Federal crop insurance only covers about 30 percent of our production costs.
· Require farmers to secure crop insurance in order to participate in USDA programs.
· Crop insurance is ineffective – never a pay-out yet one must pay the same premium every
· Need to ensure that berry crop producers have necessary risk management tools.
· USDA should establish a standing disaster program for producers who suffer an insurable
loss but only to the extent of the uninsured loss, and should mandate and fully fund an RMA
and FSA initiative to implement data sharing to administer this standing disaster program.
· If you subsidize the insurance where farmers can afford the coverage they need for a disaster
year, then you can do away with disaster payments.
· Crop and livestock production insurance must be available to all types of production systems
and types of crops and livestock.
· Too many compliance issues exist with regard to prevented planting designations due to
Monday, March 11, 2013, 1:25 pm Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Markets are higher at midday lead by corn up 8 ½ cents while soybeans trade 6 ½ cents higher. The weekend saw good amounts of rain from the Midwest stretching down into the delta of anywhere from ½” to 2” (Top Map). The USDA drought monitor will be released Thursday and is expected to show slight improvements to much of the Midwest but drought conditions will still be present. The central plains and western corn belt have seen above normal precip over the past 30 days which should reduce the severity of drought conditions (Lower map). Thursdays USDA drought monitor is expected to show slight improvements.
Trade is already questioning the USDA feed/residual number from Friday which will either be confirmed or contradicted in the quarterly stocks report March 28th. The other talking point is possibly a reduction in the amount of corn used for ethanol. Along with the quarterly stocks will be planting intentions which are estimated to be around 98 million acres of corn and unchanged for soybean acres. With the recent market rally this may be a good opportunity to reduce some new crop risk heading into the report March 28th.
Monday, March 11, 2013, 8:27 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets traded higher for most of the night, and both corn and soybeans are still chopping around steady to higher. The corn market is finding continued support after the USDA S&D report from Friday. (Remember, they did not widen the carryout as expected, instead they offset corn poor exports with increased feed demand).
Soybeans are getting their strength from Brazilian logistics that aren’t getting better – in fact they may be getting worse. Brazilian port workers are threatening to strike on March 19th if the union can’t come to an agreement with the government. (The unions/workers are fearful of a privatization of the ports in Brazil and what that would mean for their job security, pay, etc. etc.). Their poor operations are a sign that additional vessels may be switched to the U.S. to be loaded with soybeans.