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Tuesday, July 29, 2014, 8:07 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Corn and soybeans both started out higher last night, but the extended weather forecasts (11-15 day) look wetter which caused everything, especially soybeans, to turn lower.
Other than that, there isn’t much to go on today. Crop ratings were a little disappointing yesterday (good-to-excellent ratings are shown below) but that doesn’t change the fact that the overall crop looks great. The outside markets are a mixed influence at this time with crude oil trading lower while both the $US and the stock markets are called higher.
Monday, July 28, 2014, 7:07 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Calls are higher this morning with weather being the key input. The forecasts show cool temps continuing to dominate the US Midwest. The more concerning part of the forecast involves precip – the models look dry for the next 6-10 days, and even into part of the 11-15 day window. This lack of moisture probably isn’t a big deal for corn, but there’s still plenty of time to influence the projected national soybean yield. For what it’s worth – some chances of rain are starting to show up in the front end of that 11-15 day forecast.
Crop conditions will be out this afternoon, most in the trade are expecting them to be unchanged from last week, although soybean ratings could drop a % thanks to this drier weather.
Thursday, July 24, 2014, 8:07 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Strong export data from the USDA this morning is lifting prices higher in corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn sales were strong, coming in above expectations at 1.14MMT which is of course friendly. In soybeans, “strong sales” would be an understatement as new crop sales made last week totaled 2.45MMT which equates to just over 90 million bushels.
Crop tours are beginning to kick off across the corn belt – the tour that most will follow (the ProFarmer crop tour) doesn’t start until August 18th. So far the chatter from these tours has centered around good crops with ridiculous potential.
If the markets can close higher today that would make two days in a row (wow!) – however, the seasonal charts will tell you that corn and soybeans usually don’t find their lows until we get into the middle of harvest, which is still months away... The soybean market may have a chance at a few small weather rallies (as that crop is yet to be made and the demand stories are exciting), but overall the price risk in nov beans appears to be to the downside.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014, 8:07 AM Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Corn and soybean futures were relatively quiet overnight, trading mixed to slightly higher into the break at 7:45. However, Dec corn and Nov soybeans did inch low enough to make new contract lows – continuing our trend lower due to outstanding growing conditions. New fundamental news is sparse and the news we have all points to the same thing… big corn and soybean crops. Private crop tours are confirming this potential, with the Doane Crop Tour projecting Illinois yields at 193 bpa for corn and upper 50’s/lower 60’s for soybeans. These would both be records for Illinois. Our weather looks to turn cooler again next week with a few chances of rain this weekend.
Thursday, July 17, 2014, 7:07 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The weekly export sales report was released at 7:30am today. It showed corn export sales made last week to be above expectations at 907,900 MT (573,700 MT old crop, 495,000 MT new crop). This gave corn a small 2c boost upon release, although that didn’t last long and the market has slipped back since. Soybean sales were within expectations with China as the lead buyer: total of 561,000 MT sold for new crop and 37,700 MT sold for old crop – call that report neutral to maybe a touch bearish on new crop.
In general for today the corn and soybean markets appear to be taking a small step backwards after yesterday’s nice move higher. It feels like we need to see how the weather treats us over the next few weeks before this market can work significantly lower (or higher) -- depending on the results.
Friday, July 11, 2014, 8:07 AM Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Report day. Monthly S&D’s will be released later this morning at 11:00. The trade is estimating a slight increase in corn and soybean production vs. the June S&D report – which is likely already built into the market. Corn yield is estimated at 166.1 bu/acre, bean yield at 45.1 bu/acre. We are seeing some support for prices this morning with some short covering ahead of the report. Look for the market to be a bit choppy ahead of 11:00. Rainfall and cooler temperatures this weekend and next week for Iowa.
Monday, July 7, 2014, 7:07 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our corn and soybean markets did not trade last night (no overnight session due to the holiday), they will instead start trading at 8:30am. News is quiet, which isn’t good for the bulls. There were no real changes in the weather outlook, the 6-10 day forecast shows normal temps and the 8-14 day forecast shows below normal temps, nothing that looks threatening (maps below). Opening calls will vary this morning but the general trend will be lower based off of weather alone.
So… will this crop be a “trendline yield” crop? Will it be 5% above trend? 10%? More? The answers to these questions will start becoming more clear over the next month and as we hone in on crop size, price will follow. This afternoon we will get our weekly dose of crop ratings with most in the trade expecting the good-to-excellent ratings to stay steady or maybe show a slight improvement.
Wednesday, July 2, 2014, 4:07 PM Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Quiet trade today as negative momentum carries corn and soybeans lower on the close. Forecasts look favorable for corn pollination, pressuring new crop prices 5 cents lower. Today’s ethanol report was neutral – last week’s production was slightly higher than the previous week and usage was 5 mln bu. lower than needed on average. Soybeans closed lower for the 4th consecutive day, August settling 13 cents down, Nov settling 6 cents down. The export sales report tomorrow is expected to show net-zero old crop bean sales and 11 to 18 mln. new crop bean sales. A positive old crop sales number may provide enough support to temporarily stop the downward slide going into the holiday weekend.
Wednesday, July 2, 2014, 7:07 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
We are seeing mixed markets this morning with soybeans (mainly old crop) trying to firm up a bit while corn & wheat futures are drifting lower. Also the trade feels like it could be a little thin today -- the market is only open until noon tomorrow and is closed on Friday (4th of July holiday).
Most of the talk coming from market analysts still centers around the aftermath from Monday’s USDA report. The cash market has gone quiet ever since the report came out, producers seemed to have shut off all selling (not surprising with the big drop in prices). On the flip-side end-users in both corn and soybeans are staring at positive margins wondering what to do. How will that play out over the next three months as old crop supplies feel tight (especially soybeans) while new crop supply projections remain excellent???
Currently the end-user strategy looks to be a “hand-to-mouth” mentality – meaning they will do their best not to get overly long on old crop supplies, instead buying them in shortened periods (at profitable levels) to minimize risk. In other words, spot/nearby bids will remain the best bids. If a producer has grain at home on the farm that he/she is unwilling to sell today, taking it into an FC location and putting it on free price later may be the right thing to do. Why? When delivery windows start to shrink, the flexibility to sell a spot or quick ship bid may prove extremely valuable.