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Friday, February 28, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/28/2014

Morning Comments 2/28/2014

Friday, February 28, 2014, 8:21 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good morning!
The markets are a touch firmer this morning, taking a breath after yesterday’s volatility. It looks like today will be quieter. Chinese futures were lower last night on thoughts of lowered feed demand and Brazilian harvest is nearing 40% complete this weekend. Yesterday’s bean market dip may have happened due to rumors of Chinese bean cancellations, but nothing official has been announced. Fundamentally, the soybean picture hasn’t changed much. Sales of old crop corn and new crop beans were announced this morning, which may give the market some support.
It appears the Midwest will be getting more winter weather this weekend. Hopefully the old saying holds true: “In like a lion, out like a lamb.”
Opening calls:
Corn up 1 to 2 cents
Soybeans up 5 to 8 cents
Today is the First Notice Day for March futures deliveries: soyoil at 3,742 contracts, soybeans at 17 contracts, and corn at 4 contracts.

Thursday, February 27, 2014

FC Afternoon Market Commentary for 2/27/2014

Afternoon Comments 2/27/2014

Thursday, February 27, 2014, 3:01 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!
Ever heard the saying "a tale of two halves"? Well, that's what it felt like today in the corn and bean markets. The weekly export sales report was friendly to both markets this morning, and additional sales for this week were announced early in the trade day: 284K mt for corn and 112K mt for beans.
Beans traded up to 40 cents higher from money flow and fundamental support (which potentially gave the market what is referred to as a blow-off top). Beans eventually settled to trade 20 cents higher through the late morning and corn traded a penny or two stronger in the same period.
It seemed then that both markets had too many people on the same side of the boat. March corn fell gradually into the close at $4.48 as producer selling remains active. March soybeans dropped below the $14.00 mark to close at $13.93. The dip may be due to some profit taking and pricing for March wrapping up.
Corn closed down 7.5 cents
Beans closed down 13.75 cents

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/27/2014

AM Comments 02/27/14

Thursday, February 27, 2014, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
The USDA was out this morning with their weekly export sales report (details below) and this should finally be the week we see big net cancellations to China right?  WRONG.  Another 327k MT of old crop beans were sold (along with 315k MT of new crop sales) last week meaning we still haven’t seen net cancellations and we are increasing –not decreasing—our export commitments. Simply put, ANY old crop soybean sales are ‘too many’. 
Corn also saw strong export sales but that market has pulled back and is trading lower as corn futures reached certain objectives on the chart.  The corn market isn’t afraid of export sales, instead it NEEDS them.  Soybeans have 105.8% of the USDA projected sales already on the books while corn has 88.9% of the USDA projected sales on the books. 
The outside markets are lower with Crude Oil lower at this time (DN 11 @ 102.48) along with a higher US Dollar (136.61 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is lower (DN 17). Palm Oil was lower overnight (DN 24) pulling back after a higher move on Wednesday.
So for today expect soybeans to continue to march higher thanks to tight US supplies (that just got a little tighter) mixed with lower production ideas out of South America.  Every day that soybeans work higher they are making new contract highs.  It seems like everybody who cares to talk about soybeans right now tends to be bullish.  Sounds great if you are long beans, but remember that when you put everybody on the same side of the boat… the boat tips. 
Opening Calls
Corn down 2 to 4 cents
Soybeans 4 to 8 cents higher

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary for February 26, 2014

Good morning!

Nearby soybean futures are bumping up against resistance on the chart at $14.00, which was yesterday’s high.  The high overnight on March beans was $13.9950.  Chinese futures were a mixed input… Dalian soybeans closed lower, but dryer weather in SE Asia rallied palm oil prices, which is supporting soybean oil – and may end up supporting our CBOT soybeans before the day is over. 

There is a general lack of new news pushing our markets today. There are stories leaking out about production losses in South America as Parana (a state in Brazil, Brazil’s second largest bean producing state) lowered their production estimates by 2 MMT.  Blame hot dry weather in Jan/Feb for that. 

Opening Calls
Corn down 1 to 3 cents
Soybeans down 4 to 6 cents

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/25/2014

AM Comments 02/25/14

Tuesday, February 25, 2014, 8:26 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
When the overnight session paused at 7:45am today, both corn and soybean futures were quiet – trading near steady after being weaker most of the night.  At 8am this morning the USDA announced an export sale of 568k MT of 13/14 (old crop) U.S. soybeans to unknown (probably China).  This is a little wild considering most are sitting on the edges of their chairs waiting for 8am cancellations to show up not new sales.  This could/should support beans on the 8:30am open
Opening Calls
Corn steady to 1c higher
Soybeans steady to 3c higher

Monday, February 24, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/24/2014

AM Comments 02/24/14

Monday, February 24, 2014, 7:58 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
The soybean market rallied again last night, now pushing to its highest levels since September.  Generally speaking, there is nothing new in the soybean market.  You can credit these recent rallies to strong world demand (which we already knew) and a little short covering by the end user (also reflecting strong demand and margins).  If you want to, you could also talk about recent heavy rains in South America that are causing a few harvest delays as a catalyst for the higher move.
March is just around the corner and that means it won’t be long until we start talking more seriously about planting intentions of the U.S. farmer.  Last week at the outlook meeting the USDA projected corn plantings this year to be 92ma and bean planting to be 79.5ma.  Some fear that the overall acreage base could grow this year thanks to the recent high on-farm profitability seen across most of the belt.  That of course would be bearish to prices if realized.  The USDA comes out with their official “Prospective Plantings” report on March 31st
Opening Calls
Corn down 3 to 5 cents
Soybean up 8 to 12 cents

Friday, February 21, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/21/2014

AM Comments 02/21/14

Friday, February 21, 2014, 8:15 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
Our markets are lower, likely due to the USDA Ag Forum numbers that were released this morning.  I attached the tables to the bottom of this email but long story short they have the carryouts growing next year with corn over 2b bu and beans up to 285m bu.  While this doesn’t mean a whole lot because the S&D picture can/will change between now and then… it is a little bearish today. 
The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it was about as expected with corn sales within the range of guesses (albeit at the lower end).  Soybean sales were very small but they were still net positive.  This fact that it wasn’t net negative goes against the China cancellation stories that the bears in the market have been pushing.  There were also some decent new crop bean sales put on.  So, while the small export number on beans may appear to be negative to prices today – don’t let it fool you.  The USDA has total soybean exports this year written in as 1.510 billion bushels, we have 1.587bb already sold and over 5 months left in the marketing year.  The market will need to see cancellations soon, or else price may have to do the work.
Opening Calls
Corn steady to down 2c
Soybeans down 2c to up 2c


Thursday, February 20, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/20/2014

AM Comments 02/20/14

Thursday, February 20, 2014, 8:24 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
The corn and soybean markets were both lower last night on very little news.  Helping cause the weakness was the updated PMI number out of China – showing the slowest growth (manufacturing) in 7 months.  Asian financial markets were of course under pressure after that news.
The USDA Ag Outlook forum starts today, they have released a “flash” look at what they will be talking about (almost in the form of ‘slides’ for a presentation) with the actual numbers being officially updated tomorrow. 
Opening Calls
Corn steady to down 2 cents
Soybeans steady to down 5 cents
Here is one of the slides that I have seen this morning from the Ag Outlook Forum:

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 2/18/2014

Afternoon Comments 2/18/2014

Tuesday, February 18, 2014, 3:46 pm
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Afternoon!
Soybeans found strength today closing nearly 25 cents higher. Export inspections this morning fell within trade estimates but were on the high side of expectations. March meal reached contract highs and news of stress on late planted soybeans in Brazil helped March beans close above $13.60. The dry Brazilian weather is helping with bean harvest as most estimate bean harvest at 25% complete.
Corn also received support from news of dry Brazilian weather. More rainfall is needed for Brazil's 2nd corn crop; corn from the 2nd Brazilian crop typically competes with U.S. corn for export sales. Old crop also got a bump from higher-than-expected export inspections (32.6 mln vs. 21-27 mln expected). Increased producer selling may be keeping a cap on upward moves.
Corn up 4.25 cents
Beans up 23.5 cents
More winter weather in the forecast for Thursday:

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/18/2014

AM Comments 02/18/14

Tuesday, February 18, 2014, 8:00 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!
After the three-day weekend the markets are higher this morning, corn is maybe a couple cents higher while soybeans are double digits higher.  There wasn’t a whole lot of fresh fundamental (S&D) news to go on last night – the move in soybeans appears to be technical in nature.  There are key resistance levels in March corn at $4.50 and in March beans at $13.50 that will be watched closely.  Both of them are hovering right around those spots, it will be interesting to see how we close the day.
The USDA’s weekly export inspections report will be out later this morning, along with the NOPA soybean crush report.  Both of these will give strong indications to the market on how strong this soybean demand truly is and whether or not it is speeding up or slowing down.
Opening Calls
Corn steady to 2 cents higher
Soybeans 10 to 15 cents higher

Thursday, February 6, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary for February 6, 2014

Good morning! 

After a quiet overnight session the market popped higher on a bullish export sales report.  The market was expecting around 1m MT of corn sales (which in itself is big, and is probably a big reason why prices were higher yesterday) and the USDA reported 1.7m MT of sales which is of course friendly to corn.  The soybean trade was expecting between 350-550k MT of sales and the actual sales came out at 577k MT.  This is supportive to beans today.


So. The total old crop soybean export sales on the books is now at 1.581 billion bushels.  The last USDA report’s projection for export sales for the entire crop year was 1.495b bushels.  We have 30 weeks left this year, something has to give.  If exports won’t back down (still waiting for those cancellations…) the US is going to have to start importing a larger quantity of SA beans (likely into the East coast, it’s really not that difficult to ramp up - we have done it before, see: last year) either that or we are going to have to ration domestic crush demand.  Which likely spells trouble for the end user of soybean meal.


Outside markets… they are a mixed input this morning with crude oil higher at this time along with a higher stock market and firmer $US.  There were no overnight Chinese markets to watch as they were still closed (holiday). 


Opening calls

Corn 2 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 8 to 11 cents higher


Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner 


Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Morning Grain Market Commentary for 2/5/2014

Morning Comments 2/5/2014

Wednesday, February 5, 2014, 8:30 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz

Good Morning!
Some momentum from yesterday carried through into the overnight as beans rallied on strong export demand. The rally was cut short with the potential of profitable bean and meal imports from S.A. into the U.S. Harvest yields in Brazil and early yields in Argentina look very strong – as expected. The USDA Feb WASDE report is due this coming Monday; it will be interesting to see what the USDA estimates for exports vs. January with current export sales higher than USDA estimates. Beans closed 2.25 cents lower overnight.
The Dollar and Dow were both lower overnight, which is supportive to commodities, but corn had a large amount of farmer selling yesterday which seemed to cap any upward movements. Corn closed 1.75 cents lower overnight.
Have a good day!