Morning Comments 2/28/2014Friday, February 28, 2014, 8:21 am
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
More winter weather in the forecast for Thursday:
After a quiet overnight session the market popped higher on a bullish export sales report. The market was expecting around 1m MT of corn sales (which in itself is big, and is probably a big reason why prices were higher yesterday) and the USDA reported 1.7m MT of sales which is of course friendly to corn. The soybean trade was expecting between 350-550k MT of sales and the actual sales came out at 577k MT. This is supportive to beans today.
So. The total old crop soybean export sales on the books is now at 1.581 billion bushels. The last USDA report’s projection for export sales for the entire crop year was 1.495b bushels. We have 30 weeks left this year, something has to give. If exports won’t back down (still waiting for those cancellations…) the US is going to have to start importing a larger quantity of SA beans (likely into the East coast, it’s really not that difficult to ramp up - we have done it before, see: last year) either that or we are going to have to ration domestic crush demand. Which likely spells trouble for the end user of soybean meal.
Outside markets… they are a mixed input this morning with crude oil higher at this time along with a higher stock market and firmer $US. There were no overnight Chinese markets to watch as they were still closed (holiday).
Corn 2 to 3 cents higher
Soybeans 8 to 11 cents higher
Have a great day!