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Thursday, November 13, 2014, 7:11 AM Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
After a big day yesterday that featured big market swings with prices rallying to new highs in both corn and soybeans followed by a weaker close in soybeans. Also of note corn futures are said to have traded a record daily volume yesterday with over 663 thousand contracts of corn trading hands yesterday! This high volume implies that there has been big speculative buying taking place.
The soy complex sell off can be attributed to rumors that multiple cargoes of South American soybean meal were booked to ship into the East Coast of the U.S. That, along with good farmer selling pressured prices.
Overnight the markets were mixed but are trading firmer this morning on good volume which again is likely due to new spec/fund buying. I’d expect another choppy day with both markets potentially trading both sides of yesterday’s close at some point through the day. However, if the funds are going to stand in here and buy – dips may be short term…
Tuesday, November 4, 2014, 7:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The corn and soybean markets are lower this morning with the charts (especially soybeans) starting to turn ugly as the market quickly retreats off of recent highs. A lot of chatter this morning about the energy markets, particularly crude oil. Crude oil was down $3/barrel at one point last night, pushing to the lowest levels we have seen since 2009! This type of action seems to have put all commodity futures on the defensive.
Another input into last night’s lower prices was the release of private crop estimates yesterday afternoon which confirmed ideas that production/yields will be big (a 14.7 billion bushel corn crop and a bean crop that is over 4 billion bushels). Another private company is set to release their estimates at 10am today. These numbers are all being published this week because the USDA will be out this coming Monday with the November S&D report.
Weather… although there are spotty rains in parts of the corn belt the general feeling is that the weather is still favorable for harvest and over the next 7-10 days harvest should continue to progress.
Monday, November 3, 2014, 8:11 AM Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Pullback pressure this morning has corn and soybean futures lower at the 7:45 break after positive performances for both commodities on Friday. Soybeans are down 10 cents and corn is 4 cents lower. Harvest progress and good weather is adding some pressure too as we look at a favorable national forecast for this coming week. Expectations for tonight’s harvest progress report show us gaining some ground compared to our average pace. Corn is expected to be 61% to 65% complete (73% on average). Soybeans are expected to show us catching up to our average pace of 84%. We’ve got a chance for rain across Iowa today and another small chance on Wednesday. The 10-day has rain in the forecast for next Monday as well, but the feel is most of corn harvest should be wrapping up by then.
Soybean meal basis (the reason for our recent run in soybeans) still hasn’t broken lower. We have a lot of soybeans around, but the number of bushels that are available due to logistical hang-ups are much fewer. Once those issues get resolved, we can expect the recent premium placed on the market to disappear.