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Friday, September 27, 2013, 8:12 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The markets were pretty quiet last night – with the Quarterly Stock Report coming Monday and a harvest weekend ahead of us, we shouldn’t be too surprised. This stocks report isn’t expected to do much to our markets, BUT the last two Sept stocks reports have caused limit moves (one way or the other), so… you never know.
Weather for the US still looks bearish with warmer and relatively drier conditions in the forecasts. South American weather may be a little bearish as well because Argentina is expected to get some much needed rains this weekend. Planting had been delayed down there due to dry conditions.
Tuesday, September 24, 2013, 7:55 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The soybean market bounced higher last night on what appears to be a little short covering. Nov soybean futures had dropped $1/bu since the start of September – it looks like the market may finally be tired of working lower, at least for today.
Corn has so far been unable to take out the Dec contract lows, and on the chart it looks like it may be trying to form a double-bottom. This could be viewed as supportive in the short term. Long term however, if these yield reports continue to come in near or above expectations corn is going to struggle to rally.
Other than that… pretty quiet. Turnaround Tuesday on the beans and everyone is watching yield reports on both commodities. This coming Monday (Sep 30th) is the USDA’s Quarterly Stock Report – it will give the market some final numbers as to our ‘carry-in’ for this year and it will likely be a market mover.
Monday, September 23, 2013, 7:55 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
As we inch closer to full blown harvest, the markets continue to slip lower. Dec corn is only a few cents away from new contract lows. The current contract low was made in August: $4.4575 on the Dec board. Early corn harvest numbers are still generally better than expected.
Crop ratings will be out this afternoon but when we are this close to harvest they are pretty much a non-event. Looks like the trade is expecting them to be somewhat unchanged.
The weather forecasts don’t show many warning signs for frost. Any extended chances look to be limited to northern Wisconsin and Minnesota, if that.
Friday, September 20, 2013, 8:14 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The markets were on the defensive last night as traders continue to take profits in their bean/corn positions by selling beans and buying grains. If you look at soybeans on a chart, they appear to be in a well-defined downward trend or channel. Nov beans broke through major support last night and the next level of support could come from the psychological number of $13.00 on the Nov contract (which is 25-30 cents lower than we are now).
The weather forecasts are showing us a quiet weekend after this current front moves through. Next week’s weather also looks to be a non-event and with no cold air threats out there – the threat of an early frost continues to slip away.
Traders are also watching South American planting weather as their soybean crop is going to be very important over the next 6 months. Argentina’s outlook looks benign for the next 10 days or so. Brazil looks to get rains this weekend before turning dry next week. Parts of Brazil have been especially dry so these rains should be viewed as beneficial.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013, 8:11 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
It was a slow, quiet session overnight last night as corn and soybeans drifted steady to lower – both trading in a narrow range. The soybean chart looks short-term negative after the market rallied (and failed) after yesterday’s updated prevent plant data. The Nov soybean chart should be slipping into some decent support which could stabilize prices for the rest of the week.
Weather… still no sign of frost over the next two weeks which could send a signal to traders to remove that risk premium from the market. Over the next 10 days temps will be near to above normal with precip near to above normal. The belt did get some nice rains over the past few days with another cold front expected to come Thursday-Saturday bringing additional moisture.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013, 8:10 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The FSA released their acreage data early this morning and long story short, the data is friendly to both corn and soybeans – especially soybeans. After sifting through the numbers, the FSA data indicates US corn planted acreage to be around 95 million acres and US soybean planted acreage to be around 76.4 million acres. Keep in mind these numbers are estimates, almost guesses because not all acres are certified with the FSA. Those numbers listed above indicate that corn acres are down 2.4m acres from the last USDA report while soybean acres are down just under 0.8m acres.
The corn balance sheet can handle a reduction like this as supplies would still be ample, but the soybean balance sheet just got quite a bit tighter. **It is important to note that the USDA doesn’t exactly have to use this FSA data. The big question now is, did the USDA already have some of this factored in in their lower than normal “harvested acres” number earlier this month? We will have to wait till the Oct S&D report to find out…
Not much else for news. The weather is generally a bearish input as the market is hopeful these recent rains will add to pod weights in soybeans. Generally, early corn yields are better than expected which is also bearish.
The next cold front will move across the plains and into the Midwest over the weekend and the recent models have turned wetter. The largest rain totals stay a little North, through Minnesota, Wisconsin, NE Iowa and N Illinois. The rest of the belt will see rains topping out between .1 and .5”. Scattered showers are expected through the first part of next week after that.
The soybean market could see some additional buying today after yesterday’s friendly report but with a weekend in front of us, don’t be surprised to see a little consolidation/profit taking as we near the close.
Other than weather, there is very little new news to go on today. Old crop basis for both corn and soybeans continues to fall as harvest works further and further North. It won’t be long and the market will be trading on new crop price levels.
Thursday, September 12, 2013, 11:12 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
First glance, bearish (negative) to corn and neutral to bullish (positive) to soybeans.
Yield 155.30 bpa (153.69 average trade guess)
Production 13.843 billion bushels (13.620bb average trade guess)
Carryout 1.855 billion bushels (1.732bb average trade guess)
Yield 41.20 bpa (41.17 average trade guess)
Production 3.149 billion bushels (3.140bb average trade guess)
Carryout 150 million bushels (165mb average trade guess)
Definitely negative to corn as corn production trends higher and corn carryout balloons closer to 2 billion bushels. The bean yields and production were within trade guesses, but there are definite questions as to what yield we actually see in a few weeks. The projected carryout on soybeans for next year is TIGHT. 150mb doesn’t leave much room for error.
Thursday, September 12, 2013, 8:02 am Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
With the USDA S&D report out at 11am this morning, the trade overnight was choppy/mixed/etc – use any type of adjective you want, it was pretty uneventful. Weekly export sales were released at 7:30 this morning and they were a little disappointing for both corn and beans. The futures markets were slightly lower when the overnight session paused at 7:45.
The cooler temps are finally working their way into the corn belt with scattered rains showing up with it. Overall, the next couple of weeks look to be more “active”, meaning: better chances of rain.
Early reports on harvest yields are showing impressive corn yields while beans yields are all over the place. After we get through the USDA’s production estimate today – all eyes will be on these yield reports.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013, 8:39 am Submitted by: Kyle Lehman
Choppy trade overnight as traders position themselves for tomorrow’s big report. Yield is expected to be cut 1-1.5 bpa for both corn and beans with some of that being offset by reduced demand estimates. September is a big month with 3 potential market moving report: Supply/Demand tomorrow, FSA data Sep 17, and quarterly stocks on the 30th. Overnight rains were scattered and very limited with forecasts calling for better chances later this week and into next. Some of the late planted soybeans may benefit from these late rains but for the majority of the crop it will be of no benefit.
Outside markets are supportive as China’s stock index traded to the highest levels in the last 3 years. The dollar is currently lower while crude ticks slightly higher.
Today looks similar to yesterday with both corn and soybeans weaker to kick things off. The G/E ratings
released yesterday afternoon did not drop as much as anticipated (only a 2% drop in both corn and soybeans) which is probably helping the market work lower. With mostly above normal temps predicted for the next 10 days frost threats are not a topic of conversation at this time.
The weather outlook looks to bring a couple cold fronts across the belt over the next 10 days. The first cold front isn’t expected to bring much rain but the second one could bring decent moisture early next week. This rain is probably too little too late but with the late planted soybeans, there could be a little boost to the poor bean yields in the Western Belt.
The USDA did not release harvest progress numbers yesterday, but a few states did report. Texas and Mississippi are 60% harvested on corn, Louisiana is 97%, Tennessee 72%, Georgia 69% and Alabama 17%.
The USDA’s September S&D report will be out Thursday, it is starting to feel like they won’t be making any significant changes to crop projections, even though Iowa soybean yields are regressing. Don’t be surprised if they punt and wait another month to see yield reports before revising crop sizes.
With news wires reporting that Syria is accepting a deal from Russia to turn over their chemical weapons – some of the outside markets are a little volatile. Crude oil is currently down over $2/barrel which could help keep a lid on any rallies in our grain/oilseed commodities today.
Weaker markets today with extended forecasts calling for a break in temperatures mid to late this week and the possibility of scattered rain across the belt. The extreme heat we have seen that past couple of weeks has been detrimental to soybean production but on a positive note corn maturity was advanced. US corn dented is now at 64% up 22% from last week and shy of the average of 75%. We are still behind pace with only 9% of the corn crop mature vs 28% on average. Crop condition ratings down 2% to 54% (35% for Iowa).
11% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves this week vs 19% on average. Only 2% of Iowa soybeans are dropping leaves this week. Condition ratings down 2% for the US and down 6% for Iowa.
Opening calls lower with condition ratings dropping less than market expectations.
There is very little news to go on this morning, the weather outlook is actually a touch negative with these nearby high temps looking like the last push of heat (finally) we will see for a while. It is also hard to get bulled up about a potential early frost when the local news calls for triple digit highs here in central Iowa. But, in spite of that the soybean market inched higher overnight on what was likely a bit of short covering. These higher soybean prices may falter as we get further into the day.
The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil a bit lower, the $US a bit lower and the US stock market called higher. Weekly crop ratings will be out this afternoon with the trade already pricing in a 3-5% decline in soybeans and a 1-2% decline in corn. Anything less than that and you can expect lower markets, if the drop in G/E ratings is more severe – expect a rally. Those numbers come out later this afternoon (after the close).
Our markets are bouncing a bit this morning ahead of the heat forecasted for this weekend and into next week. Soybeans yesterday worked lower during the early part of the session, only to find renewed spec buying interest. The traders remain bullish soybeans and will look to defend that position when they can.
The fundamentals in the corn market still appear bearish (negative) thanks to strong yields, a poor chart and slow demand. The traders who are buying corn these days are probably hoping that soybeans will pull prices higher, but so far that isn’t working.
We had a jobs report out this morning that was negative – but the stock market is trading higher after its release. The thought process behind that centers around the idea that if the economy isn’t turning around, the gov’t will have to continue their stimulus plans, so… buy buy buy.
The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am, we saw solid sales on new crop soybeans and disappointing corn sales. Informa (a well followed private company) will release their crop production estimates later today (usually late morning). The USDA of course comes out with their numbers next Thursday.
Our corn and soybean markets are weaker this morning, the technicals (charts) look to be turning lower and in the short term they may need some sort of ‘new news’ to turn them around.
The USDA comes out with their updated S&D numbers next Thursday (Sept 12th). Soybean yields are expected to be lower (U.S. yield was 42.6bpa last month) which helps explain the $2 rally soybeans have seen since the start of August. The corn yield is a bit of a question mark. The USDA had U.S. yield pegged at 154.4bpa last month – which is pretty close to the average trade guess today. It is worth noting that some well-followed private companies have that yield estimated above 156bpa, which if true – would be negative to prices.
the operator’s manual (again). Haying equipment is used only during the summer,
giving you nearly a year to forget the safety warnings.
yourself alert during harvest season: Drink plenty of liquids, eat regular
meals, get enough sleep, and take breaks.
sure all guards and shields are in place on all your harvesting equipment.
try to unplug the baler until you have disengaged the power take-off, shut off
the tractor engine, and put the ignition key in your pocket.
conventional balers, remember the flywheel keeps the machine operating for a
considerable time after power is disengaged. Never work on a baler until the
fly wheel has completely stopped.
round balers, Make sure twine is properly threaded and the twine arm is
adjusted and in good working condition. Do not feed twine by hand into the
forage wagons, stay clear of the discharge conveyor while operating. Remain in
the tractor seat.
cutting equipment, never try to adjust cutter bars, reels, or conditioning
rollers without disengaging the power. Avoid rushed movements when working
close to the equipment, even when stationary, because of it’s sharp edges and
Tuesday, September 3, 2013, 8:00 am Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl
Good Morning! Overnight markets were higher with weather the reason. Dry areas of the midwest remain dry and temporary cool-down is followed be heat returning by late this week. Corn harvest progressing from south to north, with areas in Missouri and Illinois probably to start this week. For the most part, corn yields from these areas south are very good with many reports in excess of 200bpa on a dry basis. Outside market influences pretty quiet to start the week….Syria situation has energy indices somewhat edgy.
Opening grain calls this am: corn up 4-6, soybeans up 35-45