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Friday, May 30, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/30/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 05/30/14

Friday, May 30, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The weekly export sales report was out this morning (delayed a day due to the holiday) and it looks supportive for both corn and soybeans.  Let’s not get carried away though, it wasn’t that wild -- both those markets were trading a shade lower before the report was released (7:30am) and now they are a bit higher.  So not a lot of action yet today.  Overall the markets seem quiet/stagnant as they wait for direction. 
 
Weather forecasts don’t look much different – “active” is the word I am seeing used to describe the nearby forecast with chances for heavy rains (up to 3” ) across the corn belt over the next 10 days.
 
Opening Calls
Corn steady to 1c higher
Soybeans 1c lower to 1c higher
 
 

Thursday, May 29, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/29/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 05/29/14

Thursday, May 29, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The markets are pretty quiet this morning.  Corn is a bit lower thanks to good weather and soybeans are inching a bit higher, still finding support due to overall tightness in US bean supplies. Chinese demand has felt stronger the last couple days which just adds to the worry about projected U.S. carryouts going forward.  It sounds like China is also in pricing some of their old purchase contracts which gives the front end of the market a stronger feel. 
 
Regarding weather… for those fortunate enough to have all of their crops in the ground, things are looking pretty darn good.  For those that don’t (the NW corn belt), today/tomorrow the weather forecasts appear to show mainly dry weather with temps into the 70s and 80s – which should allow strong planting progress for those areas that are the furthest behind.  Rain chances increase as we get further into the weekend, some of the forecasted rains in North Dakota look like they could be severe which would put a stop to corn planting.
 
Opening Calls
Corn down 2 to 3 cents
Soybeans up 4 to 5 cents
 
 

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/28/2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 05/28/14

Wednesday, May 28, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


A favorable weather outlook and follow through from yesterday afternoon’s planting progress report has both corn and wheat futures lower this morning while beans are higher.  Why are beans higher?  Well overall it is hard to find a fundamental cause… We could just be seeing a small bounce after yesterday’s ugly day (down over 25c).  The more likely reason: while most of us were sleeping last night (not my 2-yr old for some reason) the Chinese Dalian soybean futures markets were higher.  This combined with tight old crop bean supplies can be blamed/credited for the higher move this morning.
 
When looking at harvest prices, if you take two big steps back you can see…  Good acres.  Good planting progress.  Good short-term weather forecasts.  And perhaps most importantly - more and more weatherpersons jumping on the El Nino bandwagon which would bring plenty of precip and normal (not above normal) temps to the corn belt this July/August.  As long as most of those above sentence fragments remain true it could be hard to entice new money into our markets, at least when looking at the supply side of the equation…
 
 
Opening Calls
Corn 1 to 2 cents lower
Soybeans 3 to 7 cents higher
 

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

Corn and soybean futures are lower this morning - actually grains in general are weaker as this afternoon’s weekly planting progress report is expected to show good progress.  Feels like corn planting should be right around 90% complete (87% is the 5yr average) while soybean planting should be around 60% complete (55% is the 5yr average).  As you can see in the weather map below ,wetter weather is coming in the 6-10 day forecast while the short term forecast calls for a few more days of general dryness which for all intents and purposes should put an end to the planting season.  The crops are off to a good start and the markets are starting to reflect that…

Generally speaking this looks like a rough start to the short 4-day trading week.  The funds are long both corn and soybeans and with excellent weather forecasts it will be a tough battle if we are to see much in the way of higher prices.  This is a choppy time of year, one change in an extended weather forecast and the market can move aggressively one way or the other – usually making everybody look foolish in the process.

Opening Calls
Corn down 5 to 7 cents
Soybeans down 10 to 15 cents

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner
@fccoopgrain


Friday, May 23, 2014

FC Morning Market Comments

The weather forecasts this morning actually look pretty good – planting should continue and maybe finish up in spots of the northern belt as conditions are near ideal for them to get crops in the ground.  They have seemingly waited all month to plant and this week they are finally getting their window.  There are a few rains in the forecast starting later this weekend into early next week which will be welcomed by most.

 

We are staring at a 3-day weekend with a planting progress report coming out Tuesday afternoon… a “profit-taking” mentality could make today a choppy, two-sided affair.  Prices do feel a little firmer so far this morning, but generally speaking many markets are nervous as we wait to see what unfolds in Ukraine this weekend (they hold their elections on Sunday and there is a general fear of violence).

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher

Dustin Weiner

Have a great day!

 

@fccoopgrain

Thursday, May 22, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

July soybean futures made new contract highs last night (technically they were made early this morning) and November beans are now at their highest price in almost a year… and there really isn’t a whole lot of new fundamental news that can be credited (blamed).  The markets actually opened lower last night before turning higher later on – appearing to simply follow a higher move in Asian markets that pushed the funds into “buy mode”.  I think with a 3-day weekend coming up  (which some will try to turn into a 4-day weekend) and a general feeling of tightness in old crop U.S. soybeans (as evidenced by basis levels that continue to creep higher) the market just found support.

At 7:30 this morning, the export sales report was out and it also injected friendly news into soybeans (we still haven’t received our needed cancellations), pulling them an additional 5-10c higher asap after release - and it was neutral/friendly to corn as well.  Details below in chart (in MT).


Opening Calls
Corn 3 to 6 cents higher
Soybeans 18 to 25 cents higher
Dustin Weiner 
Have a great day!

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary 20 May 2014

The corn and soybean market were both higher last night.  July corn futures are hovering right around the 100-day moving average of 4.76 and Dec corn futures are hovering right around the 100-day moving average of 4.77.  What does it all mean??  Maybe not much, but here are a couple simple ways to look at that – you could say there is great support there and that could be a short term bottom in corn, or… you could say that if we drop sharply below those levels, corn could be due for another break lower, potentially back to the price levels we had in Jan/Feb (approx. 30c lower than today). 

Overall though? Weather will likely determine price as we roll into June.  You probably already saw that the planting progress numbers peg us near the 5-year average for the U.S. in both corn and bean planting (if you didn’t see those, there is a table below) which is neutral/bearish.  It won’t be long and the Monday afternoon reports from the USDA will switch from “percent planted” to “percent rated good-to-excellent”.  I threw a couple weather maps at the bottom of these comments, generally showing good planting weather in the 5-day (QPF) and above normal temps and precip after that. 

Opening Calls
Corn 1 to 3 cents higher
Soybeans 4 to 6 cents higher

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner

Monday, May 19, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

Good Monday morning!  Looks like the trend from last week will continue, at least for the start of today.  Long story short….weather is pretty good and planting progress is on average pace, which provides the bulls nothing on potential supply situation.  Both 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show good growing conditions.  At trade pause this morning, corn was down 3 and beans were mixed.  That would be the call when trade resumes at 8:30.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/15/2014

AM Comments 05/15/14

Thursday, May 15, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


At 7:30am today the weekly export sales report was released and it showed net positive soybean sales once again!  Granted, it was only 2.7 million bushels – but like an addict, we just won’t stop.  This of course is supportive to old crop beans and the main thing keeping a lid on the market is the fact that at the same time we are exporting beans (know & reported quantity) we are also importing beans from Brazil (unknown quantity).  The battle between imports/exports, US crush margins / Chinese crush margins, and general logistics to get everything in the right place will likely rage on until the end of the summer when either a) we import enough beans and the price drops or b) the US processor closes the doors (temporarily) and the price drops.  Either way, this old crop bean market will have a bumpy end to it this summer as the $3 difference in price between old crop and new crop slams together.
 
Export sales on corn were neutral – coming out within the range but on the top end.  So not bearish, but not bullish either.  Overall corn does feel a little weak lately as the weather forecasts have allowed (or are projected to) for planting to proceed well. 
 
Opening Calls
Corn down 2 to 4 cents
Soybeans 2 to 5 cents higher

 

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 5/14/2014

AM Comments 05/14/14

Wednesday, May 14, 2014, 8:05 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


Both corn and soybeans are trading within a penny of yesterday’s close this morning, so… not a lot of action.  The short-term weather forecasts looks great to finish out the week and into next week with the rain staying away giving a nice window for WCB field work to be completed.  The extended weather is starting to shift into more of a wetter pattern which by then could/should be welcomed with open arms.
 
The bulls may have something to chew on in the bean market as it appears that China’s “issues” they’ve had with soybean margins/demand/etc may finally be turning around.  There is a story out there about China’s meal demand starting to pick back up which is a good sign. 
 
The outside markets are mixed with Crude Oil higher at this time (UP 31 @ 102.01) along with a lower US Dollar (137.14 vs. Euro) and the US stock market is lower (DN 15).
 
Opening Calls
Corn steady to 1c lower
Soybeans steady to 1c higher

 
 

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

The corn and soybean markets bounced back overnight and both commodities were trading higher when the markets paused at 7:45am – this feels a bit like a Turnaround Tuesday (so far). The planting progress report yesterday was relatively neutral – we made great progress last week throughout the heart of the corn belt.  However, the market is still concerned about the still states that are awfully slow (ND, WI, MI).  It doesn’t feel like this market will be able to sell off until all the acres are confirmed. 

 

Other than that – quiet.  The weather forecasts may offer a little support to prices today...  The main difference between yesterday’s run and today’s run is that the rains in the eastern corn belt look to linger longer than expected – meaning their “break of dry weather” shrunk.  The western belt is unchanged, still expecting a 6-7 day break from serious precip.  The extended forecasts look warmer with normal precip, which sounds pretty good for developing crops…

 

Opening Calls

Corn 1 to 3 cents higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

 

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain




Monday, May 12, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary 051214

The markets were quiet last night while weather across the Western Corn Belt was not – heavy storms rolled through overnight, and it is still raining in Iowa as I type this up this morning.  After these storms push East, the forecasts look generally dry for the next 7 days, which will be help get producers back in the fields.

There really wasn’t a whole lot of news out over the weekend -- other than stories out of Ukraine (yes, it is still tense over there).  The markets don’t seem too concerned about that today, as global equities are higher – but at some point the EU and the US could come up with some new, additional economic sanctions.  As far as the grain trade is concerned, to-date there have still been no disruptions in regards to corn/wheat trade flows out of that area.

Overall for today look for prices to generally drift lower – weather is still the #1 input into the markets and even though there were some heavy (too-heavy?) rains that hit parts of IA overnight – moisture is viewed as good for crops and bad for prices (today)...  Rain makes grain!

Opening Calls
Corn down 2 to 4 cents
Soybeans steady to down 2 cents

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner
@fccoopgrain




Friday, May 9, 2014

Spring Planting Safety Tips

Planting season is when many farm injuries and fatalities occur. University of Missouri farm safety specialist Karen Funkenbusch recommends keeping in mind the following precautions:
1.     Review equipment manuals before planting. Growers are often less familiar with seasonal equipment than equipment used on a daily basis.
2.     Inspect all planting equipment before use. Make sure shields and guards are in place and seat belts work.
3.     Never lean or step over a power takeoff while it's operating.
4.     Don't wear loose-fitting clothing around PTO shafts or other moving parts. Keep long hair tied back or under a cap.
5.     Shut down equipment, turn off the engine, remove keys and wait for moving parts to stop before dismounting equipment.
6.     Maintain Slow Moving Vehicle (SMV) symbols on all equipment.
7.     Keep bystanders and children away from all equipment.
8.     Always read chemical packaging labels. Information should include proper use and handling of the chemical, safe storage and first-aid treatment.
9.     Keep material safety information at hand for crop-protection chemicals. Information should include health-hazard data, spill or leak procedures and handling information.
10.   Wear protective gear specified by the label, including protective goggles and face shields, chemical-resistant gloves, coveralls, boots, hats and aprons.
11.   Store crop-protection chemicals in locked areas. Clearly label these areas.
12.   Launder chemical-soiled clothing separately and triple rinse.
13.   Wash hands thoroughly after using such chemicals.

FC Morning Market Commentary

We have mixed markets this morning as the trade patiently waits for the 11:00am USDA monthly S&D report.  Generally speaking there isn’t much else to talk about prior to that.  This report will be the first look at ending stocks for nextsummer.  When we are this far out (those crops are still being planted) that portion of the report should be taken lightly, although it will be traded.  The market is looking for very little change to old crop carryouts in corn and soybeans – maybe slight decreases are expected.  Forecasts for both commodities are at the bottom of these comments.

Before the rains last night (which looked a little lighter than expected, map below) planting progress is assumed to have made big strides – the U.S. could actually be close to its average by Monday’s planting progress report.  The Northern Plains (the Dakotas) have remained cool and wet throughout all of this and eventually this story will bubble to the surface in the form of “are there acres switching???”.

Opening Calls
Corn steady to down 2 cents
Soybeans mixed, 2c lower to 2c higher

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner




Thursday, May 8, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

The export sales report was out at 7:30 this morning, prior to that corn was trading steadyish, after that… the market was down a nickel.  The trade was expecting the export sales report (which reflects sales made last week) to show somewhere between 500k and 800k MT of new sales and it came out at only 161k MT.  Soybeans on the other hand came out at 41k MT, which was within the range of guesses (the market was thinking it would be somewhere between a negative 100k and a positive 100k MT).  The fact it was a positive number (not a net cancellation) is friendly all by itself – reason: we shouldn’t be exporting additional old crop beans when beans are so tight that we need to import them from Brazil…  This friendly report could help this bean market correct itself a little bit after the selloff we have seen over the past few sessions.  It may take more than that though to turn these charts around in a big way.

Tomorrow morning the USDA will release their monthly S&D report, this will be the first official look at crop sizes and demand for next year (the 14/15 crop, the one that is getting planted as I type this). 

Weather… good moisture in the 5-day forecast with rains coming not only later today but potentially again early next week, the first map below shows total potential accumulation in the next 5 days.  The forecast looks drier from there forward, shown in the 6-10 day map below.

Opening Calls
Corn 4 to 6 cents lower
Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner
@fccoopgrain



Wednesday, May 7, 2014

FC Morning Market Grain Commentary

The markets are slightly weaker this morning – corn was able to trade steady/mixed early on last night while soybeans (esp. old crop) spent most of the night in the red.  The weather forecasts generally aren’t offering much for the bulls to go on – yes, there is a system coming through starting tomorrow but generally speaking the corn belt will get a 3-4 day break from precip which should allow planting to progress before another rain comes.  Also – these rains are welcomed with open arms for those with all/most of their corn in the ground. 

Planting in the corn belt this week has been progressing quickly to say the least.  Depending on how heavy the storms aretomorrow – we could easily see corn planting progress on Monday afternoon’s report somewhere between 50% and 60% complete (maybe even higher?).  The market has learned over time not to underestimate the ability of the American Farmer to get his crop in the ground…

Opening Calls
Corn 2 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans 3 to 6 cents lower

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner
@fccoopgrain



Tuesday, May 6, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

The soybean market is lower this morning and looks like it could be in trouble technically (read: on the charts) after taking out last week’s lows during the overnight session.  This technical selling in soybean seems to be leading most of the markets lower. 

Corn is a few cents lower overnight, some of that due to the weakness in beans.  But also, with another 48 hours of warm, dry weather on the docket – the US farmer will be getting a big chunk of planting done between now and the (potentially heavy) thunderstorms coming later in the week.  Unfortunately, that rain is not timed well for everybody (it never is) -- planting delays in Minnesota (and northern Iowa) look to continue.  The 6-10 day precip map shown below looks like it could provide another window for field work to be done.  This slot (next week) will be the next window of time the market will focus on. 

Opening calls
Corn 3 to 5 cents lower
Soybeans 10 to 15 cents lower

Have a great day!

@fccoopgrain

Monday, May 5, 2014

FC Morning Market Commentary

Good morning!

The markets were higher overnight – led by wheat.  There were some hot temps in wheat country (KS, OK, TX) over the weekend.  It got up to 102 degrees in Wichita, from what I read this is not only a record high for that day in history – but for the whole month of May!  Not good for what is an already stressed wheat crop. 

The Ukraine situation is also helping wheat (and corn) trade higher.  As you may or may not know – in general the issuesover there have had little effect on actual grain exports.  The action has taken place in a different part of the country.  Well… now we are reading that armed Russian-speaking separatists have moved into the city of Odessa (an important export hub) but haven’t taken over the port (yet?).  The export program is winding down over there (it’s that time of year) but this is still something to watch and if they lose that port – grain prices could see a spike.  

Those two stories seem to be the main topics today, along with (of course) weather.  There are increasing chances of rain in the 7-day forecasts, with a system coming through Thursday, followed by another small one this weekend.  Of course, these come after a few days of warm/dry weather which could/should get a large portion of the corn belt back in the fields. 

Opening Calls
Corn 2 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans 1 to 3 cents higher

Have a great day!
Dustin Weiner
@fccoopgrain

Friday, May 2, 2014

FC Morning Grain Report

The markets last night were a little higher – this looks like a nice little correction after yesterday’s severe drop.  If you looked at weather models this morning, even though the next 5 days look warm and dry - I suppose you could say overall the forecasts are a touch wetter than they were yesterday which would be friendly to prices. The next rain event looks to have just moved up a day or so (coming next Wednesday instead of next Thursday??).  Also in supportive news, Ukraine unrest seems to be on the front page again today, causing traders to put a little risk premium back in the market.  All of this together has helped the market stay positive so far today.

 

The soybean chart had some major damage done yesterday with the +50c drop in July futures prices.  If the market can hold here at these levels, and maybe recover some of those losses - that would be a good sign.  If not, there could be another leg down in this thing. 

 

Overall for today we expect the markets to be choppy with a decent chance we close higherahead of the weekend.  A lot can change in a weather forecast over 48 hours – for better or worse – and nobody wants to have too much risk on the table.  This market could get squirrelly just before the 1:15 close. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2c higher

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

 

Have a great day!