FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/9/2013

AM Comments 08/09/13

Friday, August 9, 2013, 8:16 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Soybeans continued to rally last night thanks to… improving meal basis, strong new crop sales and probably some short covering (ahead of Monday’s report).  Corn on the other hand just can’t quite put together a rally.  With so much chatter about record or near record corn production – it is simply difficult for anyone to convince themselves to go long at these prices. 

 

I haven’t talked about weather for a couple mornings now and that is because it isn’t changing – still non-threatening to crop development.  There are rains falling across the southern belt this morning and there are small rains in the forecast for parts of Iowa late this weekend – chances are low, so I will believe it when I see it. (5 day precip forecast map to the right)

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2 cents lower

Soybeans 7 to 9 cents higher

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1805

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/8/2013

AM Comments 08/08/13

Thursday, August 8, 2013, 8:20 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean markets pushed higher last night – somewhat led by soybeans and China.  Data released shows China soybean imports for July at a record large 7.2MMT which is supportive to the soy complex. 

 

The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am – we had strong soybean sales (mostly new crop) and poor corn sales.  The poor new crop corn sales aren’t overly surprising because at these current price levels, new crop U.S. corn is still over-priced when compared to the rest of the world.  This fact alone could keep a lid on rallies in Dec corn for a while. 

 

However when glancing at a chart, it does start to feel like corn and soybeans are trying to form some sort of a short term bottom.  It will be important to some of the technical traders to see corn and beans hold these gains from last night all the way into the close today.  With the USDA report coming Monday – this could easily happen as we start to see short-covering as traders even up positions.

 

Opening Calls

Corn 3 to 5 cents higher

Soybeans 9 to 12 cents higher

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1803

 

FC Afternoon Grain Market Commentary for 8/7/2013

Afternoon Comments 8/7/2013

Wednesday, August 7, 2013, 3:17 pm
Submitted by: Kyle Lehman

If you look back through your comments over the past 12 or so trading sessions you will see a common theme..markets lower and non-threatening weather. Well today is nothing new so I won’t bore you with the same story that has been told the past several weeks. However, the bearish tone of cooler temperatures may start to turn bullish if the trend continues. Talks have started to shift over to a late planted crop with development weeks behind normal being very susceptible to an early frost/freeze. If the below normal temperature trend persists could we see an early frost? Only time will tell.

 

Ethanol data this week was neutral although production did pick up 2.5% from last week. Corn used this week for ethanol production was 89.6 mln bu vs 103.1 mln needed to reach the USDA projection. At this point it is unlikely the USDA projection will be reached considering many ethanol plants are scheduled for maintenance down time the next two months. China approved the importation on GMO from Argentina today which will add a little pressure to US markets where corn is currently 50-75 cents higher priced than South America and the Black sea region.

 

August weather outlook continues to look favorable for soybean development providing the continued bearish tone. Similar to corn the market will watch for any indication of an early frost which could be more detrimental to soybeans where a significant portion didn’t get planted until late June/early July. USDA announced yet another new crop soybean purchase from China of 220k MTs.

 

Outside markets were mixed with the dollar and equities trading lower on uncertainty of when/if the fed will begin to reduce the QE3 bond buyback program. Crude traded weaker today while metals mostly higher.

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1802

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/7/2013

AM Comments 08/07/13

Wednesday, August 7, 2013, 8:05 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Nothing exciting happened in the overnight trade last night, it looks like there was an attempt to bounce the market higher off of recent losses.  It will likely take more than a small technical bounce to turn these charts around as both Dec corn and Nov beans hover near their lows. 

 

With the weather forecasts and current crop conditions clearly not supporting an upside move – maybe a USDA report will give a gift to the bulls?  Tomorrow morning is the weekly export sales report and Monday morning is the monthly S&D report, you never know... 

 

Here are the current average trade estimates for Monday’s report:

·         Corn Production

o   13.980 billion bushels using a yield of 157.7 bpa

·         Soybean Production

o   3.338 billion bushels using a yield of 43.5 bpa

·         Corn Carryout

o   12/13: 725 million bushels (it was 729mb in July)

o   13/14: 1.971 billion bushels (it was 1.959bb in July)

·         Soybean Carryout

o   12/13: 122 million bushels (it was 125mb in July)

o   13/14: 263 million bushels (it was 295mb in July)

 

Opening Calls:

Corn steady to 2 cents higher

Soybeans steady to 3 cents higher

 

Past 24 Hour Rainfall Map:

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1801

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/6/2013

AM Comments 08/06/13

Tuesday, August 6, 2013, 8:04 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Another day, another decent looking weather outlook, another couple cents lower in both corn and soybeans.  The weather forecasts for the next two weeks still show normal to below normal temps with off-and-on showers over most of the Midwest.  It does turn more “seasonal” in late August (warmer) – but overall there is very little to get concerned about here.

 

The crop conditions were out yesterday afternoon with born U.S. corn and soybeans gaining 1% in the good-to-excellent categories. This was about as the market expected. 

 

Other than that… pretty quiet on the news wires.  The bulls are hoping that today ends up being a “Turnaround Tuesday” and we see futures prices work higher – the weather outlook wouldn’t support that thought, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see corn and beans trade both sides of yesterday’s close today.

 

Opening Calls

Corn mixed, up 2 cents to down 2 cents

Soybeans down 3 to 6 cents

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1799

 

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 8/2/2013

AM Comments 08/02/13

Friday, August 2, 2013, 7:50 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The markets were pretty quiet overnight with born corn and soybeans trading in a narrow range.  The rains that ‘coulda/shoulda’ hit Iowa last night were pretty disappointing.  However, South Central to SE Nebraska along with NE Kansas got a nice shower – benefitting the dryland corn in that area.  There is another system currently in South Dakota that should bring some much needed rains into parts of Iowa.  Overall the weather forecasts remain nonthreatening with cool and wet being the basic theme. 

 

Farmer selling this week has been limited which is still allowing old crop basis to leak higher.  If you remember, the initial rumor that collapsed the soybean market over a week ago was that China was going to release soybeans into its own market from their gov’t reserves.  We are now hearing that the first reserve auction will be held next week, so it appears the rumors are true.  It will be interesting to see what price those beans get sold at in this auction…

 

Outside markets… not a major factor today.  Crude oil is a little lower, gold is a little lower, the $US is a little higher and the Dow futures are pretty much unchanged. 

 

 24 hour Rainfall Map:

 

 

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1796

A.M. Grain Market Commentary for 8/1/2013

AM Comments 08/01/13

Thursday, August 1, 2013, 8:26 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

The corn and soybean markets drifted lower last night as the weather forecasts turned a little wetter for the Western Corn Belt.  The rain penciled in for today and tomorrow has also maybe slid a little further north into some of the rain deprived areas in Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. 

 

The USDA released their weekly export sales report and both corn and soybeans had better than expected new crop sales – which could lend support to prices today. 

 

Outside markets… to start the month of August, crude oil is over $2/barrel higher, gold is higher, and the DOW is called higher – all of that is friendly, meanwhile the dollar is also higher which tends to be more bearish than bullish.  There has been no indication from the Fed that they will be winding down QE3 anytime soon.  Overall call the outside markets a bit of a friendly input today.

 

Other than that, it appears to be a quiet start to August.  The cash corn and soybean basis markets are still trying to work a little higher – although it is important to note that as certain demand centers (whether it’s ethanol, soy processing or feed mills) get enough grain bought to get them to harvest (or at least close to it), they will no doubt be quick to take whatever premiums they are showing away.  

 

Opening Calls

Corn down 2 to 4 cents

Soybeans steady to a little weaker

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1794