FC Market Morning Commentary for July 1, 2013

Good morning!

Corn and soybean spreads continue to firm after Friday’s friendly stocks numbers were released.  That is good for old crop, not so good for new crop.  December corn gapped lower last night, making new contract lows.  It won’t be long until we start discussing pollination weather forecasts and if they remain non-threatening… dec corn could struggle to find support.

Weather today… we still have a generally favorable forecast for the week for most of the Midwest.  No signs of excessive heat or dryness through at least mid-July. 

Opening Calls

Corn down 3 to 5 cents

Soybeans up 5 cents (new crop) to up 20 cents (old crop)

Have a great day!

Dustin Weiner

@fccoopgrain

Farmers Cooperative Company

Ames, Iowa

FC Market Commentary for June 28, 2013 Regarding USDA Report Recap

June 28, 2013

Quarterly grain stocks/intended acreage just released by USDA. 

CORN: quarterly stocks at 2.764 Bln, which was a bit lower than trade estimates;  acreage the surprise at 97.4 Mln, which was down just slightly from the March intentions. Either prevent plant acres are not being addressed yet, or the intentions number back in March was light. Either way, it is bearish new crop corn especially with non-threatening weather going forward. 

BEANS:  quarterly stocks at 435 Mln, which was slightly below trade estimates;  acreage was 77.7 Mln which was in line with trade estimates.

Bottom Line:  Old crop stocks on both corn/beans a little tighter than expected…..will support old crop prices for awhile longer. New crop outlook is bearish (despite planting problems in IA/MN) due to more acres and benign weather.  Believe them or not….the market will trade the data.

Jon Setterdahl
Farmers Cooperative Company

FC Morning Market Commentary for June 28, 2013

Good morning!

Overnight the corn and soybean markets traded in a narrow range on both sides of yesterday’s close – not a lot of excitement.

The USDA will give us all the action we need at 11am today.  Stocks.  Acres.  8 out of the last 10 quarterly stocks reports have a caused a limit move – up or down.  If there are surprises to be found today, they could be in the stocks number.  The acreage number will be disputed by traders minutes (or seconds?) after it is released but the stocks number will be somewhat fixed, simply telling us whether further demand rationing of old crop corn/soybeans is needed or not.

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2 cents

Soybeans steady to up 2 cents

Have a great day!

 

4th of July Fireworks Safety Tips

National Council on Fireworks Safety Offers Common Sense Tips for Staying Safe During New Years Celebrations : The National Council on Fireworks Safety

Next Thursday is the celebration of our country's independence - July 4th. During that almost time every county and town in America will have a sanctioned fireworks display - additionally, there will

be 10,000's of people igniting their own fireworks. Below is a list of fireworks safety tips from The National Council on Fireworks Safety to keep everyone a bit safer this year. 

Have a great and enjoyable 4th of July. Stay Safe! Together we can!

Please review the list of legal fireworks for Iowa  In Iowa, if a firework goes 'up' or 'boom' it is illegal (source KTIV)

Using consumer fireworks on July 4th is a tradition.  And it can be safe if a few common sense rules are followed, says Ralph Apel, the spokesperson for the National Council on Fireworks Safety. Consumer fireworks go through vigorous third party testing in China before being shipped to the United States.  But he notes, according to the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (“CPSC”), there were an estimated 9,600 fireworks related injuries during the Fourth of July season in 2011.  Most of these injuries would not have occurred if the fireworks had been used under close adult supervision and if some basic safety steps had been taken. The National Council on Fireworks Safety offers these common sense safety tips for using consumer fireworks in hopes that injuries to consumers can be greatly reduced this season:

Know your fireworks; Read the warning labels and performance descriptions before igniting.

• Have a designated shooter to organize and shoot your family show.
• Alcohol and fireworks do not mix. Save your alcohol for after the show.
• Parents and caretakers should always closely supervise teens if they are using fireworks.
• Parents should not allow young children to handle or use fireworks.
• Fireworks should only be used outdoors.
• Always have water ready if you are shooting fireworks.
• Obey local laws. If fireworks are not legal where you live, do not use them.
• Wear safety glasses whenever using fireworks.
• Never relight a “dud” firework.  Wait 20 minutes and then soak it in a bucket of water.
• Soak spent fireworks with water before placing them in an outdoor garbage can.
• Never attempt to alter or modify consumer fireworks and use them only in the manner in which they were intended.
• Report illegal explosives, like M-80s and quarter sticks, to the fire or police department.

The National Council on Fireworks Safety urges Americans to follow common sense safety rules in their holiday celebrations.

The National Council on Fireworks Safety is a 501(c)(3) charitable organization whose sole mission is to educate the public on the safe and responsible use of consumer fireworks.  For a full list of consumer fireworks safety tips and a safety video, please visitwww.FireworksSafety.org.

Contact:   Ralph Apel, Press Contact, at 913 579-4529

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 6/27/2013

AM Comments 06/27/13

Thursday, June 27, 2013, 7:59 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Soybeans were higher last night while corn was steady to lower.  At 7:30 this morning the weekly export sales report was out, corn and wheat exports were friendly with corn coming in towards the top end of guesses while wheat was above the highest guess.  Soybeans were dead quiet on old crop, with strong new crop sales once again.  Overall this is viewed as slightly bullish.

 

With the USDA reports just over 24 hours away, today’s price action could get a little squirrelly as traders line up their positions.  The trade is expecting corn acres to drop by around 2 million acres with soybean gaining around 800k acres – so that is what is in the market already.  The projected stocks numbers (just a measure-up of the country as of June 1^st) are expected to be down around 10% on corn from last year at this time and down just under 35% on soybeans. 

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to down 2 cents

Soybeans 3 to 6 cents higher

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1757

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 6/26/2013

AM Comments 06/26/13

Wednesday, June 26, 2013, 8:08 am
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

Good morning!

 

Another quiet night last night as the focus remains on the USDA numbers coming Friday.  Some commodities were weaker driven by a general risk-off mentality in global markets, energies are weaker, metals are weaker and the $US is higher.  This makes it difficult for our grains to rally.

 

The one good thing about this relatively steady/boring price action these past couple days is that it gives producers a chance to manage risk (read: sell) ahead of the report with cash prices still hovering around $7 for corn and $15 for soybeans!  New crop values are also holding firm with new crop corn and beans both about $5 and $12 respectively. 

 

Weather… still nothing to see here.  There are some cooler/wetter conditions coming in this weekend over the Midwest.  Overall U.S. weather still appears non-threatening in the eyes of the trade.

 

Opening Calls

Corn steady to 2 cents higher

Soybeans down 2 to 4 cents

 

THREE-MONTH WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NOAA:

 

http://www.fccoop.com/markets/commentary_detail.cfm?CommentaryID=1756

FC Morning Grain Market Commentary for 6/24/2013

Good morning!



The corn and soybean markets are all lower this morning on better than expected rain over the weekend (further south than anticipated).  The outside markets are also helping the market sell off – the DOW is called down over 100 pts, crude oil is lower, gold is lower and the $US is higher, all negative in regards to money flow through our commodities.  Today could turn into a “risk-off” day.  Overall with what is happening with the Fed and with a potential economic slowdown in China – price action could generally drift negative.  If we get too down and dirty, broad spec liquidation could follow.



Weather forecasts currently look non-threatening but for maybe the first and last time in a while – changes to weather may not matter as weather could take a backseat because… The USDA reports on Friday will be the main input this week.  Waiting until Friday to see those numbers could mean a choppy trade for Monday-Thursday.  Friday is also the last day of the week, month, quarter and 6-month period – meaning the fund monies could go through an ‘evening up’’ process before Friday, aiding the lack of direction.



The spreads are the only thing rallying today (in this case meaning old crop isn’t down as hard as new crop).  This is reflecting the tightness in the old crop supply/demand situation and a general lack of farmer selling.



Opening Calls

Corn down 11 to 13 cents

Soybeans down 10 to 14 cents